Sforex

IDEA FOR U/C NEXT WEEKS (TA)

Long
FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
1
- Technical Analysis:
I show on the chart the key support level: 1.056
This is an important level which if price breaks this level; U/C cannot its uptrend anymore. I show three times U/C test this level and bound back. This is very rigid benchmark and U/C cannot pierce this level unless market provides enough force. However, fundamental elements now support uptrend, don’t favour downtrend.
This key support also coincides 38.2% Fib retracement. This consolidates for the strength of 1.056 level.
Thus, we can place stop loss here : 1.056. For sure traders can move stop loss a little bit to avoid scam from broker. 1.046 for example.
Today price stops at 1.0628. this is also 23.6% Fib retracement I show on the chart. This level also coincide SMA 10 and SMA20. Thus, this also a strong level but not too strong likes 1.056 level.
we can see that U/C constant test 1.07 level and then bound back, but we must acknowledge that this level was pierced many times, and with lifting power from fundamental factors, I think U/C cannot hold below this level longer. I think U/C will be trade higher this level. Once this level was broken, there is no reason it is broken again.
The next target is 1.0740 high. This is the level which U/C was hit last Friday and bound back.
Next target is 1.08 level: This is a psychological level.
Next target is 1.0827. 38.2% Fib Retracement from 2009-02-28 to 2011-04-30
Price moved from 23.6% Fib retracement to get close to 38.2% Fib retracement. I believe U/C will touch this level next year. The problem is time.
So I have enough target and stop loss.
Now this is the strategy to trade USDCAD.
Next week the price don’t have too much change, the market will be busy after New Year.
IF PRICE BREAKS 23.6% Fib RETRACEMENT: 1.0628, IT WILL GO DOWN TO 1.056 LEVEL. WE CAN BUY AT 1.056/1.0550 AND PLACE STOP LOSS AT 1.05 LEVEL : 50% FIB RETRACEMENT.
IF PRICE BREAKS 1.067 LEVEL. WE ENTER BUY POSITION. STOP LOSS AT 1.056 AND TARGET AT 1.0740 HIGH. TARGET SHOULD MOVE BACK 10 PIPS FOR SURE: 1.0730
AND IF PRICE BREAK 1.0740 LEVEL AND TRADE HIGHER THIS KEY LEVEL , WE OPEN A POSITION AIM THE 1.08 LEVEL AND STOP LOSS AT 1.063
WE WILL NOT TRADE IF PRICE FLUCTUATE IN THE RANGE BETWEEN 1.067 AND 1.056. I JUST OPEN THE TRADE WHEN PRICE :
- 1 : MOVE TO 1.056 LEVEL
- 2 : BREAK 1.067
PRICE MUST CHOOSE A TREND, AND THAT IS UPTREND. IF USDCAD TRADES BELOW 50% Fib RETRACEMENT LEVEL , THIS IS THE MOST DIFFICULT MATTER WHICH I MET.

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