moneymaking
Long

USDCAD: BUTTERFLY PATTERN (60 MIN) !!

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
Wed, July 29- UPDATE #2: Hi everyone, I've CLOSED all of my positions on this trade at current market price. FOMC coming up in less than 25 minutes.

UPDATE #1: Hello everyone, Trade is ACTIVE now. Remember I will be closing this trade at 1:30 pm (NEW YORK TIME) today, if we don't get stopped out here !!

Hello Traders,

Here we've a BULLISH Butterfly Pattern on FX:USDCAD             that is close to the completion point. The important point to keep in mind is that, the market has broken the BULLISH structure by forming the 1st LL. This is the first signal of a POTENTIAL shift from the current BULLISH to BEARISH trend. We also have ratio confluence between 127.2% extension level of XA leg and the 161.8% extension level of AB leg. The stop loss goes 10 to 20 pips below the 138.2% extension level of XA leg. Also note that we have a support zone at the completion point of this pattern. I will only be interested in SELLING this pair once we get a BREAK and CLOSE below that support zone . USDCAD             is at a MONTHLY resistance level and any signs of reversal from price action to the downside could present us with good SELLING opportunities. See the chart below for MONTHLY resistance.

As you know, I posted an idea of going LONG on AUDUSD             but the pattern never completed and the market just took off from there. So in order to prevent this from happening again, I've decided that I will be adding 10 pips to every entry price for every trade that I will be taking from now on. Yes, you can argue that by taking this action, I will be breaking my rules for trading harmonic patterns BUT these types of situations occur quite rarely. So this is the ONLY minor change that I will be making to my harmonic trading rules.

Since the completion point for this pattern is at 1.29018, I will add 10 pips to this and my NEW entry price will be at 1.29118. I believe the market has already came to this entry price and reacted from it, BUT I will still keep my pending order in place. I actually recognized this pattern AFTER the market had reacted from the NEW entry price. So as of right now my entry has NOT been triggered yet.

NOTE: As you all know we have the BIGGEST news coming up tomorrow which is the Federal Funds Rate from US. I advice everyone to be CAUTIOUS if you are going to take this trade. Tomorrow's news can either invalidate this setup OR it can move in our favor OR it may not do anything (which is highly unlikely). If my entry is triggered overnight, then I will stay in this trade up to 1:30 pm, just half an hour EARLIER from the Federal Funds Rate news release.

CORRECTION: I misspelled the 2nd target as "TG #1: +123 Pips", it should read "TG #2: +123 Pips".

Please feel free to AGREE or DISAGREE with this idea by leaving a comment below. Hit that thumbs up button (top left corner of this chart) if you like the idea. Good Luck :)

snapshot
UPDATE #2: Hi everyone, I've CLOSED all of my positions on this trade at current market price. FOMC coming up in less than 25 minutes.
+1 Reply
TahirAli moneymaking
Good job,I am sitting on my hands too although USDCAD looks tempting to go long for few pips.
Reply
moneymaking TahirAli
After market breaking and closing below the support zone, my view on this pair is bearish for now.
Reply
UPDATE #1: Hello everyone, Trade is ACTIVE now. Remember I will be closing this trade at 1:30 pm today, if we don't get stopped out here !!
Reply
TahirAli moneymaking
I got 9.07 AM right now.What's your time?
Reply
moneymaking TahirAli
11:01 AM.
Reply
moneymaking TahirAli
Sorry 11.08 AM. So I will be closing this trade at 1:30 pm new york time.
Reply
TahirAli TahirAli
Looks like you got eastern time.
Reply
moneymaking TahirAli
That's right mate :)
Reply
TahirAli TahirAli
I wont be closing my trade as I am already stopped out.(20 pips). Ha ha ha.
Reply
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