USD/CAD: Will this pattern play out as before?
I am currently short since last week based on previous ideas posted by other Tradingview members (backed by clear divergence on my momentum indicators and some bearish patterns showing up on my MT4 platform pattern recognition indicators), hoping to be able to catch the big move down to the higher timeframe trendline when or if it comes (like in the USDCHF pair, great trade but I missed it regretfully...).
Now, this pair is new to me and seeing that I didn't do any detailed analysis on this myself, and also seeing other signs opposed to the potential big decline scenario (!); I thought I'd do it now, better late than never I guess... Especially since I'm seeing my profits go down by the hour now...
I'm not sure I like what I have come to...
My opinion: the current uptrend may be slowing down but we could very well be headed for another move up, if this pattern which is currently forming, plays out as it did before!
I am also seeing other people here coming to similar conclusions in the time it took me to make this analysis, and some have bailed out of their shorts already...
BUT CONSIDER THIS: if a pattern shows up that clearly, for the 3rd time already, wouldn't it be too obvious that it plays out exactly the same again...?? Or is that wishful thinking on my behalf... :-)
Some people yesterday were talking about broken trendlines so I decided to stay in the trade based on that, but hey, I can draw at least 3, and not all of them have been broken..., better yet, PA is now back above all 3 again!!
Anyway, I'm still in the money with SL in place and there are still those bearish patterns which completed at the potential top of last week in the daily and weekly charts, so I am currently keeping my short position anyway, SL is there and risk is controlled, we'll see how it plays out...!
It does sting to see profits disappear into thin air like this though, little voice telling me I should take the profit and walk away... But if I do that every time I see a trade going against me than how would I ever be able to catch the whole move one whatever trade I take...!
Possible gameplan:
(1) Buy the breakout of the upper trendline of the expanding triangle/descending wedge (possible partial hedge to better the odds and possibly eliminate risk without moving my current SL to BE)
(2) I'll definitely be looking for new shorting opportunities again when or if we get to the 1.34/1.35 area!
(3) Sell the breakout of the lowest of the cluster of trendlines (and 200MA)!
Good luck guys!!
Now, this pair is new to me and seeing that I didn't do any detailed analysis on this myself, and also seeing other signs opposed to the potential big decline scenario (!); I thought I'd do it now, better late than never I guess... Especially since I'm seeing my profits go down by the hour now...
I'm not sure I like what I have come to...
My opinion: the current uptrend may be slowing down but we could very well be headed for another move up, if this pattern which is currently forming, plays out as it did before!
I am also seeing other people here coming to similar conclusions in the time it took me to make this analysis, and some have bailed out of their shorts already...
BUT CONSIDER THIS: if a pattern shows up that clearly, for the 3rd time already, wouldn't it be too obvious that it plays out exactly the same again...?? Or is that wishful thinking on my behalf... :-)
Some people yesterday were talking about broken trendlines so I decided to stay in the trade based on that, but hey, I can draw at least 3, and not all of them have been broken..., better yet, PA is now back above all 3 again!!
Anyway, I'm still in the money with SL in place and there are still those bearish patterns which completed at the potential top of last week in the daily and weekly charts, so I am currently keeping my short position anyway, SL is there and risk is controlled, we'll see how it plays out...!
It does sting to see profits disappear into thin air like this though, little voice telling me I should take the profit and walk away... But if I do that every time I see a trade going against me than how would I ever be able to catch the whole move one whatever trade I take...!
Possible gameplan:
(1) Buy the breakout of the upper trendline of the expanding triangle/descending wedge (possible partial hedge to better the odds and possibly eliminate risk without moving my current SL to BE)
(2) I'll definitely be looking for new shorting opportunities again when or if we get to the 1.34/1.35 area!
(3) Sell the breakout of the lowest of the cluster of trendlines (and 200MA)!
Good luck guys!!
