KVE
Short

USD/CAD: Not sure of my short...

FX_IDC:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
29 3 1
I am short after the storm cooled down from the FOMC decision to leave US intrest rates unchanged @ 0.25%.
Not sure anymore now and considering tightening my SL levels...

Two patterns could be in play for this pair on the 1H and 4H charts:
- a simple pattern namely a descending triangle which could point to a bearish direction.
- an advanced pattern namely a possible bat pattern if I dismiss the spike down...

The bat is not perfect though and we have still to surpass the possible B point to the upside so it is still very premature. There is also that spike..., but it is a spike, no close below A, at least not on the 4H or higher timeframe charts...

At the current time more signs point to further downside: the descending triangle , RSI well below 50, MA's dropping and gap widening, several supporting "up" trendlines were broken in the last couple of days/weeks.

Pointing towards some upside could be the MACD bullish divergence on both 1H ( MACD and signal line divergence) and the 4H (histogram divergence) and the fierce rejection below around the 1.3070 level.

If we get above the B leg of the possible bat I might get long for a run up to the .886 level of XA and back short again after that...

Side-note: I did manage to get some profit (60+43+24 pips down and 24 pips up) out of the selloff and retracement back up after the FOMC decision! :-) :-)
CLOSED trade, initial idea was a success! Added short stopped out at BE.
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Added a short from 1.3224, SL on both positions @ 1.3260 (at previous up-trendline). Above a trendline now, may close at BE or with a small loss before the close...
Will update here or publish a new idea.
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My short worked out after all, SL not hit before a couple of hours ago!

Details: Short from 1.3171, TP1 at 1.3113 (+ 58 pips), TP2 at 1.3018 (+ 153 pips), TP3 at 1.2810 not reached, stopped out at 1.3155 (+ 16 pips).

Now back up to 1.3200 again, shorting it again from here-on (1.3199), no SL or TP at the moment, will decide on it after further analysis and before the weekend closure!

Wish me luck!
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