Olu
Long

UsdCad: I am Looking For More Upside

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
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This is my EW interpretation of what is going on right now in UsdCad . I think it is going much higher. I think price is going up in 5 waves (red primary count) from the 1.2220 lows. Within that 5 waves 1 and 2 are done and price is currently in the 3rd wave. This third wave is usually the strongest according to EW. I have subdivided this third wave into another 5 waves (blue count) and here 1 2 and 3 are done. Once blue 4 completes price should shoot up to complete red 3. If price takes out the green line then the idea is off as wave 1 cannot enter the territory of wave 1. Price is still above the SMA which is bullish as well.

Mar 11
Comment: Just adding to the idea. Scenario 2 is if the blue 5 waves is somehow complete and price is doing the red 4. The implication of this is twofold. Price will not go much higher than say 1.32xx area and secondly the point where the idea is wrong is a bit lower at 1.2688. Just my view
Mar 12
Comment: Price action had me reaching for sea sickness tablets today as price moved about without upside directional conviction. Just up and down. Up and down. However the 2800 level held today and price is now moving away from that level.

One thing is making me cautious though. DXY is moving lower and UsdCad moving up?? Go figure. Perhaps there is something negative about the Canadian economy compared to the rest of the West. I like that the idea is working however I am edgy because it is nor correlating with DXY weakness
Mar 13
Comment: All I can say is BOOM! Massive directional move up today despite the $ falling against most western currencies. There is some fundamental weakness being priced into the Canadian economy. Perhaps because of Trump's tariffs. Price is getting close the 1.3009 resistance area so there could be some 'back and forth' price action. Ultimately I expect a breakout but the market will do what it wants to do
Mar 15
Comment: Price cleared the blue (3) today 1.3009 and is on the way higher to complete the red (3). By the way in EW the common relationship between wave 1 and wave 5 is equality so this targets the 3100 area for the red (3). We will see what price does tomorrow
Mar 17
Trade closed: target reached: More upside was seen yesterday as expected. According to EW we are now very close to the red (3) and so I closed my position anticipating the onset of red (4) to the downside. Of course price could extend and that is my loss. However if the retracement starts, acording to EW price could go to the wave 4 of one lesser degree (sorry for the jargon) which is the blue (4).
Mar 19
Comment: Price overshot my target for red (3) and is now moving lower to create the red (4). This move should be in three waves and that is what I will be looking out for.
Mar 20
Comment: Price is now struggling to rise. I believe the red (4) is being worked out and eventually price will rise again
Mar 22
Comment: Price put in a hammer today. As I am looking for a red (5) move I will be looking to buy with a possible target of the 1.33xx area
Mar 27
Comment: Downside momentum has practically died and an attempt is being made to the upside. I think the red (4) is in or close to being in. If this idea continues to remain and if the red (4) is in then price could head for new highs
Mar 28
Comment: I believe 1.2815 could be the red 4 low. So I am looking for higher prices from here
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