FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
1956 6 29
This trade that I executed on 11/22 is at the moment retracing. NOT reversing according to my wave count and analysis. This is the kind of moves that tests the resolve of many traders and see if they have the mental fortitude to withstand the move and stay with the trade. If this is indeed a retrace, when it ends, it will drop. Only thing is, will you have stuck with it or got "scared" out? Will you let "FEAR" govern your trade? Remember, FEAR and GREED are the 2 emotions that rule the market. But they are also the 2 emotions that KILL traders accounts.

What I am seeing is that prices are retracing and possibly setting up a a ".786" trade. A '.786" trade is where prices first hit a "wall" or level that causes it to retreat or bounce from that level and drop/rise. In this case, drop. Then after it has dropped, it suddenly will reverse and start to retrace that drop. It should retrace to the .786 retrace of that move and then drop again. If you recognize this pattern, getting in at the .786 retrace level on a SELL (in this case) would be a relatively low-risk trade and also a trade going with bearish PA.

However, I am ALREADY in this trade from a different level and for a different reason. The reason for my trade HAS NOT been invalidated so there is no reason to exit that trade. In fact, If I see this ".786" trade setup, I may be looking to SELL again and add to my SHORTS as I am still expecting this pair to make a nice move to the downside.

This retrace is possibly a wave (2) which is retracing the previous drop which should be a wave (1).

The "expanding traingle" pattern I had mentioned before looks less likely to be a possibility now with this recent move but I will leave it there as it is not out of the question just yet. There is also a POSSIBLE Butterfly pattern setting up on this retrace with the C point waiting to be set. This is in addition to the other patterns that I had talked about in my TRADE ANALYSIS on this pair.

Here is that TRADE ANALYSIS if you need to refer to it:

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Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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