vlad.adrian
Long

USDCAD - Long term chart

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
258 0 5
This is not a single trade to keep for a few days or weeks, it is my longer term view on this pair. My plan is to accumulate a position using the daily charts , even the H4. In order to enter, I need a daily signal. Right now I don't have any contract on this pair, I'm waiting.

Looking at the left side of the chart, you can see the Wave (this time 55emas, it tracked price much better than the 34emas I normally use) heading down, and if you scroll back a few years you can see it has been doing that since the most extreme point at 1.62000. After that, during the subprime mortgage crisis the dollar rallied strongly, warning that the downtrend might be over. In a few years, the dollar retested the low area (did not touch the extreme low, but came close) at 0.90000 - 0.95000. After that, market transitioned for a couple of years and slowly started lifting price over parity. The long term momentum is going up, this doesnt count as a divergence, but it shows that price is likely to go up.

Price is currently at value, but looking back it is not unusual for price to go a bit below or above the Wave (depending if there is a downtrend or an uptrend going on) and then continue its direction. Note also that this area between 1.05000 - 1.07000 is the strongest support until the 0.90000 area, and it must hold in order for a uptrend to emerge in the medium term.

My plan is to wait for a daily signal, and start building very slowly a long position. First resistance is at 1.12000, the last swing high, and first serious resistance comes above 1.16000.
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