The latest bullish USD-CAD phase is due to a weakness in the Canadian dollar. While the US dollar has moved sideways, the Canadian namesake fell, and this is in part explained by the sharp decline in oil. On the chart, the price is about to reach an important resistance at 1.37000. Let's see what could be the future of the currency pair, with some macroeconomic considerations.
CRUDE OIL. The question I ask myself is: how long will the price of oil fall? Well, I would not be surprised to see the price go down into the $ 30 area. I expect at least to see the price go down to test the support in the $ 40 area. However, I believe that in 2019 the price will stabilise and return above $ 60.
The current situation sees, on the one hand, the OPEC that, in support of the price, has implemented another round of production cuts (especially Saudi Arabia). The cartel is ready to extend these cuts as international prices continue to fall. However, the news failed to impress a market worried about global economic growth and consequently crude oil demand.
On the other hand, the increase in production of non-OPEC producing countries (such as the United States). Finally China. China’s oil imports in October hit an all-time high, and a strong demand could help the price in the next months.
ECONOMY. A currency pair is nothing but a mirror of two economies. Even though at certain moments speculation decides the price movement, sooner or later it is destined to return to the real value. I'm going to briefly analyse the American and Canadian economies.
The United States. The American economy is currently strong, the labour market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Household spending has continued to grow strongly.
Canada. The Canadian economy will be supported by solid growth in both foreign and domestic demand and continuing favourable financial conditions. Firms will invest to alleviate capacity pressures and improve productivity. Exports will expand at a moderate pace, restrained by ongoing competitiveness challenges and limited transportation capacity. Consumption will grow at a healthy pace, supported by rising wages.
Two strong economies but with a future that could be very different. The US growth forecast was revised down from 3.1% to 3.0% for this year and from 2.5% to 2.3% in 2019. This led the Fed to change its vision about the number of rate hikes for 2019, dropping from three to two. While the Canadian economic growth will be 2.2% this year and expected almost unchanged next year at 2.1%.
In conclusion, I think that in 2019 the Canadian economy will strengthen against the American one. And as consequence, the Canadian dollar will do the same against the US dollar. I think that crude oil can still negatively affect the Canadian dollar but only for a short time. So, most likely USD-CAD will reach 1.37000, and for a very short time it will even exceed it, but in the medium term, the currency pair will fall, returning at least to 1.30000.
I wish to all of you a New Year full of satisfaction!
CRUDE OIL. The question I ask myself is: how long will the price of oil fall? Well, I would not be surprised to see the price go down into the $ 30 area. I expect at least to see the price go down to test the support in the $ 40 area. However, I believe that in 2019 the price will stabilise and return above $ 60.
The current situation sees, on the one hand, the OPEC that, in support of the price, has implemented another round of production cuts (especially Saudi Arabia). The cartel is ready to extend these cuts as international prices continue to fall. However, the news failed to impress a market worried about global economic growth and consequently crude oil demand.
On the other hand, the increase in production of non-OPEC producing countries (such as the United States). Finally China. China’s oil imports in October hit an all-time high, and a strong demand could help the price in the next months.
ECONOMY. A currency pair is nothing but a mirror of two economies. Even though at certain moments speculation decides the price movement, sooner or later it is destined to return to the real value. I'm going to briefly analyse the American and Canadian economies.
The United States. The American economy is currently strong, the labour market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Household spending has continued to grow strongly.
Canada. The Canadian economy will be supported by solid growth in both foreign and domestic demand and continuing favourable financial conditions. Firms will invest to alleviate capacity pressures and improve productivity. Exports will expand at a moderate pace, restrained by ongoing competitiveness challenges and limited transportation capacity. Consumption will grow at a healthy pace, supported by rising wages.
Two strong economies but with a future that could be very different. The US growth forecast was revised down from 3.1% to 3.0% for this year and from 2.5% to 2.3% in 2019. This led the Fed to change its vision about the number of rate hikes for 2019, dropping from three to two. While the Canadian economic growth will be 2.2% this year and expected almost unchanged next year at 2.1%.
In conclusion, I think that in 2019 the Canadian economy will strengthen against the American one. And as consequence, the Canadian dollar will do the same against the US dollar. I think that crude oil can still negatively affect the Canadian dollar but only for a short time. So, most likely USD-CAD will reach 1.37000, and for a very short time it will even exceed it, but in the medium term, the currency pair will fall, returning at least to 1.30000.
I wish to all of you a New Year full of satisfaction!