I have still been trading all this time. But I have been absolutely swamped with my business lately so I haven't had the chance or energy to post trades. But I just found some free time so here ya go.
The Trade: I had my eye's on this ( ) for some time now. Today we finally got a break and close above the 1.3113 Resistance. I initiated my long position on the pair earlier during the U.S. session.
Price Action: Look closely at the price action the previous weeks. Seller's jumped on at the 1.3113 Resistance and attempted to push price back down to 1.28 and below. Their attempt was more unsuccessful during the final two attempts prior to today's breakout. Buyers bid up from the 1.28 area, and the small bodied candles at resistance show the lack of sellers around. I really like the way today's candle closed. A solid green full bodied candle that was bid right from the open, with a small upper wick.
What to look for: I expect another push tomorrow, with a retest of the broken 1.311 Resistance later in the week. But hey anything can happen, it could retrace. Point is I took the aggressive route and got into the trade today. Also go down to the 1 Hour chart and you will find a intra-week that you can gauge for entry or exit (if your a shorter term trader).
Moving Averages: Big secret, I use moving averages but fail to mention them because I use different averages depending on the price action (above below 200 MA, etc.), the product (Equities, , Currency, etc.), and the time-frame. But for this pair I used prominently the 20 & 50 day Moving Averages. Why? Because the product was in clear absolute control of the bears, which meant to me that I needed to be aware of a trend change ASAP if I was going to prepare for a trade. The quickest way for myself personally to find a change in trend in a situation like this is the 20 Day Moving Average. In this case I waited for a solid close above the 20 Day Moving Average after price sold off from 1.46 Highs. That happened May 4th, 2016. Once that happened I bring on the slower 50 Day Moving Average, and I wait for a crossover to confirm the change in trend, which happened around two weeks ago. Once that completes, I started planning out my entry. Whether I would be aggressive and enter long at the 50 Moving Average or wait for a breakout. In this case, since I have over four open positions in different products I decided to be conservative and wait for a breakout. I was in no hurry to enter another position.
Long Targets: Quite simple, I have two targets. The first one being around the 50% Fibonacci level, and the second target is the 60.8% Fibonacci Level.
Stops: My stop loss is a little aggressive in my opinion being at 1.2927. For a trade like this I would normally put it below support at 1.28. But decided to bring it slightly below the Moving Average crossover.
Good luck to you all, and I hope you found this informative.