EverythingForex

UPDATE #1: ANALYSIS: USDCAD - Falling Soon? When and How Far?

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
In my last post on this pair (see Related Ideas: "ANALYSIS: USDCAD             - Falling Soon? If So, When and How Far?"), I predicted that this pair was poised to start falling. While I thought it was supposed to go higher before falling, it did not. But it did fall. But is this just a small fall before going higher? Or is this the start of something BIG? Let's see what could happen.

What you are seeing above is my view of what just happened with the recent price moves. These recent price moves seems to suggest that there is a possible very large FALL that is coming. But not so fast. There is still another move back up needed to set it all up.

WAVE COUNT
Prices are currently in a wave (iv) retrace back up from that recent fall down. That fall down is a typical wave 3 action. In this case, a wave ( iii             ). The wave (iv) should go back up into the MAJOR SR Structure just above. Then a wave (v) down to finish off the wave 1.

PATTERNS

A COMPLETED Bat (neon green) triggered that fall and played out PERFECTLY. Now prices are nearing to complete a POTENTIAL Bat. Its' completion should mark the end of the wave 1 down and wave 2 up should commence.

4HR Chart
USDCAD: 4HR Chart - Mapping The Fall
MY TRADE PLAN
I will wait until that POTENTIAL Bat completes and then watch price action to see if there is a good BUY opportunity. If not, then the REAL ACTION will come AFTER the wave 2 has completed. Then I will be ALL OVER the next move down! A wave 3!

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jhakas
a year ago
ucad made double top on 1hr chart.. and now it is trading on neckline support of it... so as per my view.. if ucad falls and complete your brown bat pattern towards 1.322.. then to me it will be very negative signal.... as in that case i dont see ucad up...

other scenario... I am bullish on ucad even from these figures... there are two things.. flash long downside candles.. but ucad kept 1.322 and rose again with bullish doji candle on daily time frame.. and it is bullish signal for trading double top pattern as well.. I see little retracement and ucad towards 1.345.. but if ucad falls from neckline 1.3296.. and takes out 1.322 then i see ucad upside finished and road towards 1.28... but if ucad keeps 1.322 and daily doji candle low.. then i see new high in ucad.. and oil towards 37.7.. not a pro.. but i trade alot double top patterns..
+1 Reply
HiTech PRO
a year ago
I think thats the target for the downside and good entry to go long
snapshot
Reply
Long term traders, stay short commodity based currencies on a fundamental basis.Our shorter term trading friends that are experts in making money can provide us with excellent areas to add on to short positions for longer term plays to the downside.Here's why:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-20/how-next-global-financial-meltdown-will-unfold
Reply
EverythingForex PRO RobertHerdman
a year ago
Thanks for the post but no need for fundamentals to tell me. I've been seeing shorts coming for weeks now. IMO, zerohedge is more rumor-mongering than actual fact finding. And yes, although I am a technical guy, I follow the news and I do read zerohedge. But in order to take advantage of news, you can only trade LONG TERM and with large drawdowns. Not my cup of tea.
Reply
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