USDCHF SHORT SWING-DAY PLAY 3:1 RR
Hey there fellow traders, publishing my first trading idea. Today it's going to be a
USDCHF
short play.
First, let's take a look at $USDOLLAR FXCM index to see where we are overall with dollar for the coming days/weeks. We'll be using Weekly Chart.
As you can see we have a very nice support resistance level at around 12200 and price has been failing to break above it for significant number of weeks recently. Even making a high-test/evening-star formation back in August 2018. We also have a trend-line resisting price's move to the upside and it looks like today's week might be the final one before bulls eventually give up and give way for a nice move to the downside.
Now going to our USDCHF trade on the daily chart.
Let's notice that even though price hasn't quite reached a more significant resistance at 1.05, we have a strong daily range/level (green rectangle) which has been respected a lot this year. Price mostly failed to break above it and right now it's decelerating + making tweezer type candles for a nice short possibility.
I am already live in this trade from around 12 hours ago after 4H chart failed to break above that daily level-range and moved to the downside making a high-test candle. Entering this trade anticipating the following EMA crossover too.
Another possible entry might occur after 1H 50EMA is retested and rejected later on. For myself that would also be a scale-in opportunity for even more RR.
By stacking confluence factors together we have:
As always, risk is capped at 1% before the trade. There is no sure trade. Psychology above all.
Thanks for your time!
USDCHF
short play. First, let's take a look at $USDOLLAR FXCM index to see where we are overall with dollar for the coming days/weeks. We'll be using Weekly Chart.
As you can see we have a very nice support resistance level at around 12200 and price has been failing to break above it for significant number of weeks recently. Even making a high-test/evening-star formation back in August 2018. We also have a trend-line resisting price's move to the upside and it looks like today's week might be the final one before bulls eventually give up and give way for a nice move to the downside.
Now going to our USDCHF trade on the daily chart.
Let's notice that even though price hasn't quite reached a more significant resistance at 1.05, we have a strong daily range/level (green rectangle) which has been respected a lot this year. Price mostly failed to break above it and right now it's decelerating + making tweezer type candles for a nice short possibility.
I am already live in this trade from around 12 hours ago after 4H chart failed to break above that daily level-range and moved to the downside making a high-test candle. Entering this trade anticipating the following EMA crossover too.
Another possible entry might occur after 1H 50EMA is retested and rejected later on. For myself that would also be a scale-in opportunity for even more RR.
By stacking confluence factors together we have:
- USDOLLAR Higher TimeFrames indicating weak dollar
- USDCHF Daily primed for a quick move to the downside
- USDCHF 4H chart rejecting daily level + EMAs crossing to the downside.
- Break and Retest of intraday levels and 1H 50EMA with a following possible rejection of it for another confirmation.
As always, risk is capped at 1% before the trade. There is no sure trade. Psychology above all.
Thanks for your time!
Trade active:
Looks like 1H 50EMA is being retested/rejected and a downside move is imminent.
Comment:
Price is consolidating a bit, but it's still showing bearish pressure. Daily chart is looking even better, primed for a drop soon.
Comment:
Price broke above EMAs, but overall support is still holding. That's why our stop was positioned above previous highs.
Comment:
Barely hanging by a thread. But trade hasn't failed until it hit our stop. Accept the risk before and enjoy the ride. Can easily go in our favor just as well.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Unfortunately got stopped out on this one. USDOLLAR index is on it's few last bull moments, we will definitely have a re-entry soon.
Lightwork Trading