Continuation of new bullish up move?
Last week I saw a potential reversal which in fact played out to a T.
The coming week could be more of the same, even with possible not so stellar USD data which is imo already calculated into the dollar. Market most likely already anticipated that the chances of a rate hike happening in the near future are very unlikely, at least till say, September?
What I see in the charts for the coming week:
- Rsi and stoch overbought on H4 which could indicate at least a temporary hold at current levels just like we saw end of March.
- This temp. hold could get extended downward to retest break of strong resistance zone around 0.9690 - 0.9650. This would perfectly coincide with the test of the lower trend line of the new bullish channel AND with huge level that turned resistance on the 29th of March. This level got retested between the 13th and 15th of April but got broken last week (not taking into account the quirky market during ECB last week).
- Clear Elliot wave 3 that is in progress and that either continues till about 0.9870 or, more likely imo, stops for a bit to retest previous resistance now turned support before finalizing at 0.9870 region.
- The last 4H was bearish and we saw some hesitation before that.
- The daily TF doesn't have an overbought RSI although Stoch is (which helps support above statement regarding temp. hold) so more bullish momentum is expected.
- Daily candles are very bullish especially when they broke through the resistance levels showing very string bulls.
- On Higher Weekly TF we only just started moving higher but we are still in a downward channel so up move could be limited to 0.9870. However Weekly could temp. extended outside channel and reach 1 region. But this will only become clearer as time moves along.
Above is negated if price decided to fall below 0.9690 - 0.9680 and hold below. If this happens bears should regain controle and push the pair back down towards the lows at 0.95.
Overall I remain bullish on this pair.
The coming week could be more of the same, even with possible not so stellar USD data which is imo already calculated into the dollar. Market most likely already anticipated that the chances of a rate hike happening in the near future are very unlikely, at least till say, September?
What I see in the charts for the coming week:
- Rsi and stoch overbought on H4 which could indicate at least a temporary hold at current levels just like we saw end of March.
- This temp. hold could get extended downward to retest break of strong resistance zone around 0.9690 - 0.9650. This would perfectly coincide with the test of the lower trend line of the new bullish channel AND with huge level that turned resistance on the 29th of March. This level got retested between the 13th and 15th of April but got broken last week (not taking into account the quirky market during ECB last week).
- Clear Elliot wave 3 that is in progress and that either continues till about 0.9870 or, more likely imo, stops for a bit to retest previous resistance now turned support before finalizing at 0.9870 region.
- The last 4H was bearish and we saw some hesitation before that.
- The daily TF doesn't have an overbought RSI although Stoch is (which helps support above statement regarding temp. hold) so more bullish momentum is expected.
- Daily candles are very bullish especially when they broke through the resistance levels showing very string bulls.
- On Higher Weekly TF we only just started moving higher but we are still in a downward channel so up move could be limited to 0.9870. However Weekly could temp. extended outside channel and reach 1 region. But this will only become clearer as time moves along.
Above is negated if price decided to fall below 0.9690 - 0.9680 and hold below. If this happens bears should regain controle and push the pair back down towards the lows at 0.95.
Overall I remain bullish on this pair.
Comment:
Price went lower and clearly broke 0.9690. This could have been a good trade upon retest of broken trendline at 0.97.
