USDCHF -- Possibly stay long for the rest of the year or more
There may be an opportunity here to make 500 or even 1,000 pips but a lot of patience would be required.
Looking at the weekly chart we can see that the pair has ranged between 1.030 and 0.920 between Feb 2015 and now (July 2020). There is an intermediate S/R level at 0.9715. We are now at the bottom of the range and arrived here with a lot of bearish momentum too. Most likely, the turnaround will not come quickly, indeed the previous touches at this level were much less impulsive.
But I am not ready to short this pair at this multi year lows, instead am prepared to wait patiently until I see a reversal occurring and some strength come back to the USD in general. Meanwhile many things can happen, i.e., a false break out from the range, a break below, retest and continuation to the down side, sideways price action within the range, a reversal now but a retest of 0.920 from within the range etc. etc.
If this trade develops as I am thinking, the area around 0.9715 and 1.030 will be targets and either one will provide an excellent R/R. All I want to do at this point is watch this pair at the end of each trading day and evaluate price action further. I believe that it will be worth it.
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As always, please use sound money and risk management in all your trades.
Looking at the weekly chart we can see that the pair has ranged between 1.030 and 0.920 between Feb 2015 and now (July 2020). There is an intermediate S/R level at 0.9715. We are now at the bottom of the range and arrived here with a lot of bearish momentum too. Most likely, the turnaround will not come quickly, indeed the previous touches at this level were much less impulsive.
But I am not ready to short this pair at this multi year lows, instead am prepared to wait patiently until I see a reversal occurring and some strength come back to the USD in general. Meanwhile many things can happen, i.e., a false break out from the range, a break below, retest and continuation to the down side, sideways price action within the range, a reversal now but a retest of 0.920 from within the range etc. etc.
If this trade develops as I am thinking, the area around 0.9715 and 1.030 will be targets and either one will provide an excellent R/R. All I want to do at this point is watch this pair at the end of each trading day and evaluate price action further. I believe that it will be worth it.
If you like my analysis, please give it a "thumbs up" and follow me to get instant notification of my posts and updates.
As always, please use sound money and risk management in all your trades.
Comment:
Since price did not reverse, I took another look and feel that the bottom is better represented at 0.90700 area.
Trade active:
I think it is time to look for a trade here. I'll be checking the H4/D time frame.