USDCHF: SNB might suprise everyone again...soon

FX:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc
I'll be entering shorts this week before the close, the potential is very good, even if only the 'local' trend signal goes in effect and hits the target.
If this trend signal works, a larger 18 week decline will become valid, and we could expect a very sharp drop towards 0.75972. This is also illustrated by a modified Schiff Pitchfork that I drew using key highest low and lowest high pivots .
You could use traditional highs and lows too, but I find the highest lows and lowest highs more telling, since they reveal what the last bastion of the buyers or sellers was in each leg. A very good idea derived from Tim West's teachings.

Fundamentals are bearish for the dollar, and we also have the commercial futures traders on our side, on this and the Euro             longs, so I think this setup is of considerably high probability.
Should you take it, good luck!
We'll need it when dealing with the SNB bag of tricks.


Ivan Labrie
Time at Mode FX
Trade active: In, 0.95227.
Comment: I rushed in, but the weekly has confirmed the downtrend. The red box target is en route.
Comment: Discretionary error entry working well.

If we expand range this week, the target for the bigger box will be confirmed, 55% chance.
Adding to shorts if we expand range.
Trade closed: stop reached: Weekly time at mode failure, we could counter long but I prefer to focus on other instruments. The dollar isn't strong vs most currencies, or gold, or commodities.
Futures closed the week under the 18 week mode!
Excellent. My discretionary sense told me to short earlier, but it was a decent entry it seems (0.9522)
Hey Ivan

Looks very promising and i will take a close look at this guy.

How to draw a fork is only important for the person who uses it.
If you have better results this way, hell why not change this and that?

This is exactly where creativity compared with study comes to trading and can lead to much better results.

It's great to see how you do your Homework with what Babson and Andrews had invented.
I encurrage you to follow this path...

And tnx for this heads-up
...later Aligtor
+1 Reply
Thanks, I like to contrast my analysis with other tools and I've seen you and Timing is key have good results with the forks so it's always worthwhile to double check it. As for the pivots, I have a better fit this way, but I'm sure you can get the same or very similar conclusion from a more 'correct' placement. I like where this pair is right now, on a time at mode basis, and also fundamentally speaking, I think it has good odds of working as expected.

These are great:

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