Interesting technicals on the USD/CHF this morning
In Monday’s report the team explicitly specified to be suspicious of longs around the 1.0000 (parity) neighborhood, despite it likely being a watched number across the market. Not only do we have weekly resistance in the form of a 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0029 in play, we also saw daily price chalk up a nice-looking bearish pin-bar formation on Friday off a daily AB=CD completion (orange arrows) point around the top edge of a daily resistance area (1.0060-1.0023). This should be sufficient indication to warn just about any technician!
With daily support at 0.9982 also out of the picture (now acting resistance), the next downside target on this scale falls in at double-bottom support drawn from 0.9855, followed closely by a daily Quasimodo support at 0.9826. On the H4 scale, nevertheless, the pair is seen attempting to print a recovery off H4 demand at 0.9947-0.9966, eyeing H4 resistance at 0.9989/1.0000.
Areas of consideration:
Seeing both weekly and daily price effectively enter ‘sell mode’, H4 demand mentioned above at 0.9947-0.9966 is unlikely to print anything noteworthy. The most we imagine is a pullback to 0.9989/1.0000.
What would be interesting is a H4 close below the current H4 demand, potentially exposing May’s opening level at 0.9907, followed closely by the 0.99 handle. In fact, should H4 price retest the underside of 0.9947-0.9966 as resistance following a push lower, intraday shorts would be in the offing. Although 0.99/0.9907 is an ideal initial take-profit target from here, we could possibly see June’s opening level brought into the fray at 0.9842, given its positioned just beneath daily double-bottom support mentioned above at 0.9855 (the next downside target on the daily timeframe).
With daily support at 0.9982 also out of the picture (now acting resistance), the next downside target on this scale falls in at double-bottom support drawn from 0.9855, followed closely by a daily Quasimodo support at 0.9826. On the H4 scale, nevertheless, the pair is seen attempting to print a recovery off H4 demand at 0.9947-0.9966, eyeing H4 resistance at 0.9989/1.0000.
Areas of consideration:
Seeing both weekly and daily price effectively enter ‘sell mode’, H4 demand mentioned above at 0.9947-0.9966 is unlikely to print anything noteworthy. The most we imagine is a pullback to 0.9989/1.0000.
What would be interesting is a H4 close below the current H4 demand, potentially exposing May’s opening level at 0.9907, followed closely by the 0.99 handle. In fact, should H4 price retest the underside of 0.9947-0.9966 as resistance following a push lower, intraday shorts would be in the offing. Although 0.99/0.9907 is an ideal initial take-profit target from here, we could possibly see June’s opening level brought into the fray at 0.9842, given its positioned just beneath daily double-bottom support mentioned above at 0.9855 (the next downside target on the daily timeframe).
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