Johanes
Long

JLS Trade: USDCHF Target Zone Trading 0.9700-1.0700

FX:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc
Based on time series interest rate differential-based currency band method and the measured average weighted rates to current EURUSD and USDJPY target zones, the estimated exchange rate target zone for USDCHF is 1000 PIPs of which 0.9700 as actual lower ceiling and the 1.0700.00 as the estimated upper ceiling. The current monetary price movement to upward by their interest rate differential-based monetary price trend.

At 1.0100 (misalignment from 1.0200), the pairs was compressed (pullback) and presently already resumed to upward by her interest rate differential monetary price trend. The minor compression (pullback) due to USDCHF is currently the highest interest rate differential and followed by USDJPY . The current interest rate differential monetary price trend also carried by CHF carry traders to look for two source of profits from, the USD appreciation by the CHF plus interest rate differential fees.

Trading strategies:

Long/buy at lowest rate (by technical method or by currency band method)
Average monthly volatility , 200 PIPs
Stop loss 200 PIPs
Target, 1.0700 for estimated 600 PIPs, estimate by June 2019
Risk Category: Low

Risk management: stop loss position managed overtime to risk-free trading position as permitted by the market price movement to upward by maintaining 200 PIPs below the current rate. At such, should the current rate 200 PIPs above the entry rate then the trading position manageable to risk free.

Or,

Long/buy from interdays low (by technical method or by currency band method)
Average interdays volatility , 100 PIPs
Stop loss 100 PIPs below interdays low
Target, 200 PIPs (interdays high)
Risk Category: Medium

Risk management: stop loss position managed overtime to risk-free trading position as permitted by the market price movement to upward by maintaining 100 PIPs below the current rate. At such, should the current rate 100 PIPs above the entry rate then the trading position manageable to risk free.

Or,

Long/buy from daily low (by technical method or currency band method)
Average daily low/high, 60 PIPs
Stop loss 60 PIPs below daily low
Target, 60-100 PIPs (daily high)
Risk Category: High

Risk management: stop loss position managed overtime to risk-free trading position as permitted by the market price movement to upward by maintaining 60 PIPs below the current rate. At such, should the current rate 60 PIPs above the entry rate then the trading position manageable to risk free.

Note:

JLS Trade means I also trade this pair.

Your comments and opinion are welcomed. This analysis is integrating technical method to currency band method for easier to follow. This analysis will not be changed or altered unless there is major changes on the monetary policy made by the SNB, Fed, ECB and BOJ, SNB during the upward movement of the monetary price trend.

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