USDCHF analysis toolset

OANDA:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc
USDCHF ('UC') looks like it's having a case of history repeating itself, as marked on the chart with the date ranges of which 37 days have passed of the total of 75. The remainder 38 days I expect 'UC' to go into a downtrend approximately like ghost bar pattern on the chart.

In that period 'UC' will make, as part of USDJPY (UJ) drop seasonality , a decent over a period of 7 weeks or more. With no further delay it could do it like it did before in November '17 over a period of 7 weeks.

In that same period JPY is expected to range and reverse direction while CHF and USD having their cycles of up and down trends. The effects on 'UC' are somewhat predictable by looking at 'CJ' and UJ knowing that the price of 'CU' is the product of the price of 'CJ' and 'UC', and the magnitude of change is equal to the sum of the change on 'UC' and 'CJ'.

'CU' ='CJ' x UJ
dCU = dCJ + dUJ

In the downtrend of 'UC' you will notice some consolidation at support levels and then you'll see it break through. What in my honest opinion actually happens at these levels is that other triangle members are limiting this pair from further change caused by the balance of strength between the triangle currencies, and their respective membership with other triangles.

So I assume that the support levels of 'UC' in the next 7 weeks are the price variations of USD, CHF and JPY, and I have therefore added the performance charts of the three below to compare. Each performance chart is simply the average change of the currency against its basket, which are for USD the majors and for CHF and JPY their respective crosses.

Hopefully this toolset helps with the analysis of your trades. As it is somewhat experimental, feedback will be much appreciated.

Thanks for reading,
Trade active: Once current CAD crash event is processed by the market I expect the fall of UJ and USDCHF to take more serious steps. Here's the direct link to my analysis which looks better than the imported one above and is also updated.
Comment: Correction on CAD crash, changed my view on that to be the USD crash previously predicted.

After CAD news came out recently I watched CAD seeking stability by sequentially trying to fix the rate on each CAD cross pair and it didn't seem to hold any and then started and slow descent in an ever increasing angle downwards. It would also answer the question if and how UC would complete the C&H pattern, therefore I concluded that CAD was going to crash.

Now I developed a different view, also because the CAD crash never happened, that it will be USD that crashes like I predicted initially. USD may take down all majors for bit up to quite a length caused by the USD major pair relationships. That explains multiple monthly cup and handle pattern acros major currency pairs.
Comment: Updated and added moving averages so that the individual asset prices are easier to follow.
Arnaud Kleinveld


the derailment is total. people are talking back about usdjpy=117~118 now. no comment on gbpusd too which is seen at 1.14~1.17 now.
Deep-Peat-Shark lapin_eliott
@lapin_eliott, People always quickly get over excited when their losing trades turning green :) Let's wait the triangle exit confirmation first before we draw any conclusions. Regardless, yes I see targets up to 120 as a possibility for UJ.
lapin_eliott Deep-Peat-Shark
@Deep-Peat-Shark, yes but 120 as a possible target before or after the seasonality reversal of usdjpy you have been working on ?
Deep-Peat-Shark lapin_eliott
@lapin_eliott, Before, because the Cup & Handle formation is processed before USD starts to fall.
it is not very clear from your toolset what do you expect for chfjpy itself. there is a risk of derailment of chfjpy on the upside, making your forecast on usdchf still totally valid but will block everything on usdjpy, eurjpy etc ... actually all your analysis would be better if you include something on eurjpy, eurjpy is the "forgoten one" but everyhting lies hidden in this pair, it is the key of everything
Deep-Peat-Shark lapin_eliott
@lapin_eliott, This is an analysis of USDCHF and not CHFJPY. The latter has only been included to show how currency pair may affect each other's prices through triangle relationships. It is not meant to be comprehensive nor complete, simply because of the amount of time it would take, for me to collect and for the reader to digest.

Each major currency pair is a member of at least 6 triangles and each triangle connects a currency with two other currencies which in turn are member of other triangles and therefore for a comprehensive and complete analysis should the entire market be included. Beyond my capacity at the moment.

Finally, on top of that, the TradingView Idea section is limited to 4k characters.
on your last comment you mention current CAD crash event, can you clarify what do you expect from the canadian dollar in the case UJ and UC were indeed to drop substantially ?
Deep-Peat-Shark lapin_eliott
@lapin_eliott, You have to think the other way around, it's the currencies that underlie the currency pair price values. UC is changing because CAD is changing, CAD is not changing because UC is changing, however, CAD may be affected by the change of USD, which is very likely also because of the strength of USD and inflexibility UC has caused by relations with other currency pairs in the market. It's a mouth full but comprehensive and covers everything that should be included in the context of your question. See Idea update on CAD crash.
there might be some encouraging signs today, but today reversal on usdjpy is so shallow, losing confidence on the ability of usdjpy to show a decent bearish attack.
Deep-Peat-Shark lapin_eliott
@lapin_eliott, Patience... and no signal no action!
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