Due to certain factors, I will keep this short as I can't reveal much information.
Rising oil price are the main driver for India’s inflation as further inferred that India being the heaviest Gold buyer to hedge inflation risk are seen with lower volume. India being the biggest net Oil importer having to face rising oil prices might result to larger trade deficit. July’s weaker manufacturing PMI from slower growth in output, new orders and employment are likely spillover effect from China’s slow GDP in Q2 particularly industrial growth and caution from export manufactures.
Government’s intervention to boost domestic consumption still not reflective in economic data hence advantage remain on Dollar side.
Turkey's turmoil is spreading its effect across to emerging currencies and Rupee is one of affected ones.
Price may climb to challenge red horizontal levels.
Rising oil price are the main driver for India’s inflation as further inferred that India being the heaviest Gold buyer to hedge inflation risk are seen with lower volume. India being the biggest net Oil importer having to face rising oil prices might result to larger trade deficit. July’s weaker manufacturing PMI from slower growth in output, new orders and employment are likely spillover effect from China’s slow GDP in Q2 particularly industrial growth and caution from export manufactures.
Government’s intervention to boost domestic consumption still not reflective in economic data hence advantage remain on Dollar side.
Turkey's turmoil is spreading its effect across to emerging currencies and Rupee is one of affected ones.
Price may climb to challenge red horizontal levels.
Comment:
This is late post and actions were taken yesterday. (Unable to post live due to certain factors)
Comment:
From bloomberg:
Just when India thought it had won free of tightening pressure, it gets pulled back in by broad EM weakness.
The inflation numbers out of Delhi looked good last night, with a tempered 4.17% sitting pretty close to the RBI's 4% inflation target. That's no easy feat, given strong oil prices this year and PM Modi's agricultural subsidies that threaten to blow up price growth.
That all gave the RBI some relief after two hikes, but the EM rout set off by Turkey could yet drag India back in. As it stands, the rupee is building its lead over the Indonesian rupiah for Worst in Asia, 2018. That puts pressure on the RBI to stem declines to avoid fresh inflation breakouts.
Just when India thought it had won free of tightening pressure, it gets pulled back in by broad EM weakness.
The inflation numbers out of Delhi looked good last night, with a tempered 4.17% sitting pretty close to the RBI's 4% inflation target. That's no easy feat, given strong oil prices this year and PM Modi's agricultural subsidies that threaten to blow up price growth.
That all gave the RBI some relief after two hikes, but the EM rout set off by Turkey could yet drag India back in. As it stands, the rupee is building its lead over the Indonesian rupiah for Worst in Asia, 2018. That puts pressure on the RBI to stem declines to avoid fresh inflation breakouts.
Comment:
India's finance ministry mentioned - Rupee reaching 80 not a concern "if others also weaken"
That being said allow us to narrow our focus as a benchmark if Rupee hitting 80 is seemingly possible.
EM currencies are very sensitive to global market shock as well as strong government intervention to stablise the currency; same goes for Rupee.
That being said allow us to narrow our focus as a benchmark if Rupee hitting 80 is seemingly possible.
EM currencies are very sensitive to global market shock as well as strong government intervention to stablise the currency; same goes for Rupee.