Today, there are two things I remind :
- US 10 year T bond yield begins to be higher after testing the low. Bond traders start pricing for better US economy.
- Dow Jones hits the fresh high and I know surely US Stock market would be higher because US economy soars up after severe winter. I think US Q2 GDP could reach to 3.2%.
US Stock rally is the necessary condition for Nikkei225 rally, and I believe this trend begins to form.
Hence, two conditions for USDJPY rally was shaped:
- Stock rally
- Yield rally.
However,there is still some risks which poses downtrend for USDJPY : TAX HIKE. Currently, I don't see any impact of tax hike on entire Japan economy. Prime Minister Abe of Japanese Government is encouraging Japan companies and firms to raise salary for their employees, and this could limit the effect of tax hike : More money, more shopping.
-Technical Analysis: USDJPY seems choosing 101.30 level as key support. It tested this level many time and bounced back.
Nikkei225 could break the downtrend line I show on the chart. If Nikkei225 breaks this key , the signal confirmative.
There is a key resistance at 102.70 I show on the chart. USDJPY needs to cross through this resistance for further high ( particular at 103 level).
I enter a LONG position of USDJPY to 103 targer, stop loss at 101.70
nice paper about usd yen expectations.
but i dont join you about your stop loss. 102.70 could be hit today if core ppi is bad or just a little bit bad.
as you said, usd jpy seemed to choose 101.30 as a key support . so i dont know what price you paid to buy dollar but in my opinion your stop loss could more spaced. ( sorry if you find my comment a little bit weird)
have a nice day sir