USDJPY (D): Good opportunity but be patient...

...it looks promising but we need some more confirmation before entering into the trade.

In a nutshell

• Double top is under way; for confirmation we need a close below 108.25 USDJPY otherwise we have 65% probability of a further long
  
• More speculative traders should wait at least until the break of the upward trendline (and should take some profits around the neckline)
  
• The ghost feed indicates a further upward potential 111.75; if we move above the weekly downward trendline and confirm the break this trade becomes invalid
  
• The volume indicates that we have less support in the area of 110.50 - 111.50
  
• After confirmation of the double top we might see a retracement; please consider this for your trading strategy (if we move above FIB 0.382 we might see a busted double top)
  
• The trading set-up posted is a plain vanilla set-up providing a RR 1:2.75; personally I gonna trade it slightly different; which gonna provide me my favorite RR 1:3
  
  Some more information about this trade; beyond technical
  
  
• FED gonna increase the interest rates two more times before the interest rate enters a "neutral zone"; translation: do not expect any increase beyond this two increases
  
• Pressure on BOJ is increasing to end the QE strategy because within the last 8Y it did not provide the expected increase in inflation
  
• Keep in mind Haruhiko Kuroda was just confirmed and he promotes the QE strategy; so some more discussion is needed but the market might start betting on this one
  
• One last thing: in times of relative high market uncertainty investors have a preference for JYP, CHF etc. which a perceived as save haven (so keep an eye on the volatility)
  

This is not an advise this is just my personal opinion.

Comment:

I should not have used the ghost feed… This was a bad idea and I won´t do it again. The ghost feed is distracting the attention from the essential. I hope you can still get the relevant information - if not, please let me know and I will draft the idea again without the ghost feed.

Comment:

We have tested the USDJPY 110.80 resistance; price moved down. Next step is the break of the upward trendline...

Comment:

Stay patient; we confirmed in 1H the upward trend. I still waiting that we break the upward trend. Since we confirmed the trend already a couple of times I would like to see at least a retest. We need to break the trendline by a "price" action not through a sideward move...

Comment:

As I have written above; more aggressive traders can start to sell the USDJPY since we broke the "small" 1H trendline. I moved short when we broke 109.83; SL won´t be shared. TP 1 is around 109.2/ TP 2 is around 108.2. Then again, wait for confirmation of the double top neckline and start selling if be break the neckline.

I do not put the trade to active since this trading idea is just for the double top.

Comment:

We are touching EMA 50 daily; I execpt a slight pullback (volume went down); I reduce my position by 50%. If we close below EMA 50 I will increase or after successfull retesting of the 109.7 USDJPY. Right now I have a buffer of 45 pips for half position which I would risk to trade the double top after completion.

Comment:

Right now we are captured between EMA 50 daily and EMA 200 4H. We just refused the EMA 200 4H and moving now back to the daily in order to test it again. I shortend again at 109.60 to full position. So I am fully short (with 45 pips plus on half position). I put SL of half position to BE of the re-entry plus X pips from the buffer. Let´s see if we manage to move below the EMA 50 daily...

Comment:

I am closing half of the position; take the 20 pips and leave the rest for tonight. Which gives me now a buffer of 65 pips for the double top pattern. Moving SL to BE plus X for the remaining part. I lost 4 pips for the transaction costs but have build up the buffer of 65 pips (net)

Comment:

We saw a strong rise in the USDJPY around 9:00 PM UTC+2; this rise was sold off afterwards. We might see a further increase but I do not increase my position until I see a drop below 109.10. I keep the buffer of 65 pips for the remaining part... Be patient again… there are so many other opportunities :)

Comment:

Tonight we tried to move to the upward trendline and it was refused to the second time. Now we might test the 109.2 again, hence a good time to move short again and build more buffer.

Order cancelled:

D. Trump has decided to be less confrontative towards China. Hence pressure will decrease and this will be a relieve for the Stock Exchanges & FX. I closed all my short positions and will digest/ watch how the market digests this information. This trade becomes very likely invalid... Nevertheless big profits within the last 10 days; not particular on this trade :)...