Subjugal
Short

USDJPY EW last leg down on weekly ?

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
Hello,
this is an idea I am looking for other opinions. If you like please comment to help me learning.

I wondered, why USDJPY was going up so far last December. Could be because of rate hike of FED, Trump factor or anything else.
From technical view in Weekly chart it seems possible for me, that it is just an upmove leg 4 that reached to upper trendline of channel and 23-Fib retracement.
So it could be beginning of a big move down (leg 5 in EW).

I am quite new to trading, so I whould appreciate comments, even short.

If I am talking rubbish, please tell me too. I am here tp learn, not to cuddle puppies :-)

Comments

I have heard 109 passed around as a possible support line. That's where I aiming. Have a chat with TradingJazz. Super helpful guy, great charting and offers mentoring. Worthing noting, though, when "Dick Dastardly" aka MR Trump arrives, expect the "Trump Bounce" to kick in.
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Subjugal IbbyJalloh
@IbbyJalloh, Thank you for precious information. 109 is near 68-Fib swing back. I could imagine it heading down to around 111 and dip down to 109. Thanks for mentioning TradingJazz. I follow him and learned a lot. But did not dare to ask directly cause I think I have to learn first before asking questions. So I chose to publish idea and hope for advice from helpful people. Thanks.
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IbbyJalloh Subjugal
@Subjugal, hey buddy don't worry about contacting him. He would be happy to hear from you. @Andre_Cardoso
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Subjugal IbbyJalloh
@IbbyJalloh, Thanks for encouraging. I think I´ll wait this month. In February I´d make a try.
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IbbyJalloh Subjugal
@Subjugal, Sure no worries whenever you ready. Good Luck!!
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Subjugal IbbyJalloh
@IbbyJalloh, Good luck to you too.
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At the same time I believe it will take some time to tear down this wall of consensus that USD is going to appreciate thanks to Trump and ensuing hawkish FED... I expect dips like today's to be met by buying pressure for some time. I regard 111.4 as the king support, a break below that would probably cause the ultimate wash out.
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Subjugal blackhorseshoe
@blackhorseshoe, Thanks for your advice. I realize that I´m thinking still in to short time range. I agree fully with your thoughts and learned a lot. Thanks again. 111.4 would be the 50-Fib swing back to downside before going up again. That gives your thought an additional credibility for me.
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Subjugal Subjugal
@Subjugal, Todays news make me feel like Trump needs little time to crash USD :-)
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@Subjugal I have been advocating this view for quite some time now, I fully agree with it and I think the balance of risk at 116-118 levels is to the downside, not the upside.
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