Potential Bullish Targets | $USD $JPY $UDX $Nikkei

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
486 4 0

Short term Yen looks to have topped at 102.277 (potential max = 102.416), leading to a probable 50% retracement into a 101.735 support. However, this short-term reversal still keeps this chart in a bullish directional bias.

However, conflict in the long-term ( Bullish ) and intermediate ( bearish ) trends offer a net bullish dominant trend, and the technical changes that are going on at the shorter term levels may herald a nascent bullish trend that would potentially turn the intermediate term around from its current bearish to neutral and finally to bullish stance - At least, this is the predictive analysis outcome anticipated in our system.

For the time being, two bullish targets emerged in this chart, namely:

1 - TG-1 = 104.095 - 04 MAR 2014: Yellow = Intermediate probability


2 - TG-Hi = 105.375 - 04 MAR 2014: Red = Low probability


While we wait for a bullish market conversion to occur in the intermediate timeframe, we remain cautious about the possibility of further reactive downside; a current break and close above 102.417 should negate this short-term 50%; softer support exists at 101.735, compared to a stronger a structural support near 101.250, which should remain a concerning "line in the sand" for any prospective bull.


David Alcindor
TradingView.com Moderator, Alias: 4xForecaster
Predictive Analysis & Market Forecasting

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Disclaimer: Forecasts, analyses and directional opinions generated herein are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. We trust that you will do your own due diligence first, then seek professional advice from a licensed professional, then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
David Alcindor
Alias: 4xForecaster

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08 MAR 2014 - Tech-Note:
- Commitment of Traders & Resulting Net Speculative Positions

USDJPY = Bearish


According to the following CFTC's COT data for the week of March 03rd, the directional biases have moved as follows:

$EUR = +
$JPY = +
$GBP = +
$CHF = +
$CAD = -
$AUD = -
$NZD = +

Implied $USD = -

Hence, based on the CFTC's data, the net speculative positions held by non-commercial players for the USDJPY pair is net BEARISH, based on a bearish preponderance in USD positions and bullish preponderance in JPY position, yielding a net NEGATIVE value in the expression of this pair's relative strength.

David Alcindor
05 MAY 2014 - Tech-Note:

As you may recall from the initial analysis, yesterday:

" ... a current break and close above 102.417 should negate this short-term 50% ..."

Well, we are right at that level at this very moment.

4xForecaster 4xForecaster
Entered SHORT at 102.504; seeking 50% retracement to 101.864 with fronted profit-taking at spread plus one; break-even if price closes below 102.327 - This should reflexively bring our recent EURO target up as well, although remember EURUSD's major historical overhead resistance - See chart attached for recent Euro techs.

4xForecaster 4xForecaster
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