$JPY Sees Reversal @ 96.710 Before 152.073 via #elliottwave Flat
Friends,
Several months ago (March 04th, 2014), this $JPY was sitting at 102.2 when the predictiive/forecasting model released two target that eventually got hit - Replay the price action here:
.
Today, I would like to make a case for a similar lofty, long-term call with an intermediate unwinding to the downside first, as to provide price with the necessary technical springboard before its ascension to a potential historical high.
For now, the downside target is purely Fibonacci-based, seeking a 38.2% retracement relative to the recent upswing. Playing out this approximate scenario, the predictive/forecasting model was able to define a lofty target as well. But first, let's talk about the technical reasons behind the moves, before we define the targets per se:
TECHNICAL RATIONALE - Using Weekly Chart
(Link to Weekly Chart:
)
1 - Price has rallied sustainably until now. In fact, a simple Elliott Wave analysis should easily demonstrate that recent ascension was built on the back of a FIRST WAVE EXTENSION, now arriving at a consolidation pattern, knows to the Elliotician as an Ending Triangle.
2 - In the more general view of the chart, one can also appreciate that price has approached historical price clusters to its left of the MONTHLY price field, which define prior support turned resistance as of now. In order to define that level, one may turn to Fibonacci's lowest acceptable 38.2% as far as building a geometric pattern fro which to propulse future price action.
3 - A proprietary pattern ("Janus Pattern") sees a support as low as 88.989 - While this prop pattern cannot be shared, I will simply announce it here as a way to established the LOWEST possible retracement in that WEKLY chart - Link provided above.
4 - Now, looking at the last and loftiest target, we will consider that this Weekly chart is in the process of defining an ELLIOTT WAVE's Bearish Flat, whose skeletal anatomy demands a 3-3-5 structure, to define Waves A, B and C, respectively. As we just discussed about a retracement to a significant low, one may now assume that this forecast low would become a basis for a rise paced in a 5-wave fashion to define the final Point-C of this flat. See Monthly flat to appreciate the relative positions of Points A and C, each born out of zig-zag waves as per EWP rules, where A represents an upwards correction of 3-wave structure, B a 3-wave ipsi-directional to major trend, and C an expected 5-wave structure.
TARGET DEFINED:
All rationale above yielded the following targets, written in the order of expected price action development:
1 - TG-Hi = 109.786 - 12 SEP 2014
2 - TG-Lo = 88.989 - JANUS PATTERN - 12 SEP 2014
and
3 - TGx = 152.073 - 12 SEP 2014
OVERALL:
Note that SPX and $USDJPY are well correlated, and that this analysis in the most immediate term reflects a similar upturn of e-Mini S&P500 ES, just posted today - See that analysis here:
- www.tradingview.com/v/tOzh2Ona/
As I post this, please allow me the time to also post other pertinent timeframes to put the entire analysis in its proper context.
Thank you.
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
--------------------
Twitter: @4xForecaster
--------------------
Several months ago (March 04th, 2014), this $JPY was sitting at 102.2 when the predictiive/forecasting model released two target that eventually got hit - Replay the price action here:
Today, I would like to make a case for a similar lofty, long-term call with an intermediate unwinding to the downside first, as to provide price with the necessary technical springboard before its ascension to a potential historical high.
For now, the downside target is purely Fibonacci-based, seeking a 38.2% retracement relative to the recent upswing. Playing out this approximate scenario, the predictive/forecasting model was able to define a lofty target as well. But first, let's talk about the technical reasons behind the moves, before we define the targets per se:
TECHNICAL RATIONALE - Using Weekly Chart
(Link to Weekly Chart:
1 - Price has rallied sustainably until now. In fact, a simple Elliott Wave analysis should easily demonstrate that recent ascension was built on the back of a FIRST WAVE EXTENSION, now arriving at a consolidation pattern, knows to the Elliotician as an Ending Triangle.
2 - In the more general view of the chart, one can also appreciate that price has approached historical price clusters to its left of the MONTHLY price field, which define prior support turned resistance as of now. In order to define that level, one may turn to Fibonacci's lowest acceptable 38.2% as far as building a geometric pattern fro which to propulse future price action.
3 - A proprietary pattern ("Janus Pattern") sees a support as low as 88.989 - While this prop pattern cannot be shared, I will simply announce it here as a way to established the LOWEST possible retracement in that WEKLY chart - Link provided above.
4 - Now, looking at the last and loftiest target, we will consider that this Weekly chart is in the process of defining an ELLIOTT WAVE's Bearish Flat, whose skeletal anatomy demands a 3-3-5 structure, to define Waves A, B and C, respectively. As we just discussed about a retracement to a significant low, one may now assume that this forecast low would become a basis for a rise paced in a 5-wave fashion to define the final Point-C of this flat. See Monthly flat to appreciate the relative positions of Points A and C, each born out of zig-zag waves as per EWP rules, where A represents an upwards correction of 3-wave structure, B a 3-wave ipsi-directional to major trend, and C an expected 5-wave structure.
TARGET DEFINED:
All rationale above yielded the following targets, written in the order of expected price action development:
1 - TG-Hi = 109.786 - 12 SEP 2014
2 - TG-Lo = 88.989 - JANUS PATTERN - 12 SEP 2014
and
3 - TGx = 152.073 - 12 SEP 2014
OVERALL:
Note that SPX and $USDJPY are well correlated, and that this analysis in the most immediate term reflects a similar upturn of e-Mini S&P500 ES, just posted today - See that analysis here:
- www.tradingview.com/v/tOzh2Ona/
As I post this, please allow me the time to also post other pertinent timeframes to put the entire analysis in its proper context.
Thank you.
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
--------------------
Twitter: @4xForecaster
--------------------
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