4xForecaster

$JPY Sees Reversal @ 96.710 Before 152.073 via #elliottwave Flat

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
2190 36 16
Friends,

Several months ago (March 04th, 2014), this $JPY was sitting at 102.2 when the predictiive/forecasting model released two target that eventually got hit - Replay the price action here:
Potential Bullish Targets | $USD $JPY $UDX $Nikkei
.

Today, I would like to make a case for a similar lofty, long-term call with an intermediate unwinding to the downside first, as to provide price with the necessary technical springboard before its ascension to a potential historical high.

For now, the downside target is purely Fibonacci-based, seeking a 38.2% retracement relative to the recent upswing. Playing out this approximate scenario, the predictive/forecasting model was able to define a lofty target as well. But first, let's talk about the technical reasons behind the moves, before we define the targets per se:


TECHNICAL RATIONALE - Using Weekly Chart
(Link to Weekly Chart:
snapshot
)

1 - Price has rallied sustainably until now. In fact, a simple Elliott Wave analysis should easily demonstrate that recent ascension was built on the back of a FIRST WAVE EXTENSION, now arriving at a consolidation pattern, knows to the Elliotician as an Ending Triangle.

2 - In the more general view of the chart, one can also appreciate that price has approached historical price clusters to its left of the MONTHLY price field, which define prior support turned resistance as of now. In order to define that level, one may turn to Fibonacci's lowest acceptable 38.2% as far as building a geometric             pattern fro which to propulse future price action.

3 - A proprietary pattern ("Janus Pattern") sees a support as low as 88.989 - While this prop pattern cannot be shared, I will simply announce it here as a way to established the LOWEST possible retracement in that WEKLY chart - Link provided above.

4 - Now, looking at the last and loftiest target, we will consider that this Weekly chart is in the process of defining an ELLIOTT WAVE's Bearish Flat, whose skeletal anatomy demands a 3-3-5 structure, to define Waves A, B and C, respectively. As we just discussed about a retracement to a significant low, one may now assume that this forecast low would become a basis for a rise paced in a 5-wave fashion to define the final Point-C of this flat. See Monthly flat to appreciate the relative positions of Points A and C, each born out of zig-zag waves as per EWP             rules, where A represents an upwards correction of 3-wave structure, B a 3-wave ipsi-directional to major trend, and C an expected 5-wave structure.


TARGET DEFINED:

All rationale above yielded the following targets, written in the order of expected price action development:

1 - TG-Hi = 109.786 - 12 SEP 2014

2 - TG-Lo = 88.989 - JANUS PATTERN - 12 SEP 2014

and

3 - TGx = 152.073 - 12 SEP 2014


OVERALL:

Note that SPX             and $USDJPY             are well correlated, and that this analysis in the most immediate term reflects a similar upturn of e-Mini S&P500             ES, just posted today - See that analysis here:
- https://www.tradingview.com/v/tOzh2Ona/#tc98828

As I post this, please allow me the time to also post other pertinent timeframes to put the entire analysis in its proper context.

Thank you.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


--------------------
Twitter: @4xForecaster
--------------------
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
ADDENDUM - Daily, Weekly Monthly Timeframes:


$USDJPY - MONTHLY Chart:
snapshot



$USDJPY - WEEKLY Chart:
snapshot



$USDJPY - DAILY Chart:
snapshot



CORRELATED VIEW WITH e-Mini S&P500 - M5
(This is a very small timeframe, but the gist is to demonstrate that price will likely be propelled to open the market at a high, as per expected in $USDJPY)
snapshot



Cheers,

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Basically, expect market to open this Monday at a 5-prime high in Wolfe Waves parlance.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
I admire your work but think prices earlier return 107700
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
2 years ago
@manijeh.kazemi.33 - I am not sure what you are saying for sure, but let me clarify what I am demonstrating here:

The series of charts are showing that $USDJPY is not done rising. In fact, considering its positive correlation with $SPX, and since $SPX is about to rise again, then $USDJPY is expected to rise as well.

However, as the expectation is for $USDJPY to rise, it will be capped by strong technical hurdles, such as a long-term upper border of a downtrend channel.

When trying to define what that value might be, I used the model to define it. The model comes up with 109.786, which corresponds very well with the trendline overhead.

NEXT, if and once that price increase up to 109.786 is done, I would expect a reversal to much lower values. Here too, looking at what the lower value could be, the model defined it as 88.989.

Turns out that 88.989 corresponds to a proprietary pattern completion level (Janus Pattern), as well as the support of an inner channel which also has a long-term validation.

All these are mere speculations of course, but ones that have a direct correlation with predictive model and proprietary pattern, and most important, it maintains a verifiable correlation via physical resistance and support levels, as those provided by the long-term channels.

Being speculations, they may or may not occur, but this exercise is to highlight how to may something concrete out of abstractions, when the trader is facing a potential trade opportunity, and handles/hurdles have to be defined - sort of walking in the dark with a hand scanning on both sides and up-front, looking for ways to define what could be palpated and used to ambulate forward.

David
+1 Reply
thank you for your comments
+1 Reply
Hi. Thought this article might be of benefit for this page viewers.

http://www.cityindex.co.uk/market-analysis/market-news/34266052014/yen-downside-nikkeis-rally/
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
2 years ago
Thank you @HamedAghajani - I am a premium member of Mr. Laidi's site. I follow his intermarket analyses and trade recommendations closely, although they do not always align with my model or the major banks' FX positions. He is the author of a book I highly recommend for anyone interested in understanding how financial markets are connected - David
Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David. I am reading his book, but I am not a premium member. I just follow his tweeter, for free heads up. Kind regards, Hamed
Reply
kmk.msp 4xForecaster
2 years ago
@david Can you tell the name of a Mr. Ashraf Laidi Book and edition please
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO kmk.msp
2 years ago
@kmk.msp - Here is a link to his site and a synopsis of his book:
- http://www.ashraflaidi.com/about/book

David
Reply
Fiboholic
2 years ago
how i like ur chart .. keep it up bro!
+1 Reply
Sam0101
2 years ago
Hey David, whats next for coming FOMC? USD seems strong to fall below 107 any further
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sam0101
2 years ago
Hello @GohSam - I won't comment on correlations between FOMC and Forex pairs. My position won't change: Charts tells what is already known, and fundamental releases, such as FOMC tell what WAS already known - Price moves not because of you and I, but because of large institutions that move on knowledge that is yet to be released. Forex is a matter of sovereign defense, and I do not believe that national banks are sitting their traders at the computer and warn them against moves coming out of the FED's chair, and then trade accordingly. Quite the contrary, institutional orders have flown through the wires way before we know, based on their own set of external geo-political and internal fundamental knowledge, and position their pawns preemptively as a reflection of perceived needs and necessity - Read the charts, and you will be able to correctly decrypt the underlying company (stocks, futures), industry (indices) and country (Forex) beforehand more often than not.

David
+2 Reply
17 SEP 2014 - Update:

Fro Twitter:
--------------
$USDJPY chart: $JPY Hit Forecast TG @ 107.509; Eyes TG-Hi @ 109.786 | #forex.
$JPY Hit Forecast TG @ 107.509; Eyes TG-Hi @ 109.786 | #forex

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Reply
19 SEP 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
-------------
$USDJPY remains expectant of several unanswered overhead targets @ 109.786

snapshot


via @tradingview $JPY #BOJ $USD #Forex
--------------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
KevinT 4xForecaster
2 years ago
As this pair has gone wild, may be fibo will provide a clue
snapshot
+1 Reply
KevinT KevinT
2 years ago
May even be an ABCD
+1 Reply
KevinT KevinT
2 years ago
Sorry. The line drawn above wan't accurate. This one is. Seen resistance is hit. Let's see if it breaks
snapshot
+1 Reply
KevinT KevinT
2 years ago
Zoomed out as daily. Mission accompished.....or is it the case as with Obama??
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO KevinT
2 years ago
Yes, looks like it's "Mission Accomplished" - But I thought this quote from the former president on the USS Abraham Lincoln.
Reply
KevinT 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Heheh. It was Obama when he pulled back US troops from Irak. "Mission accomplished". But then ISIS came along.

So still need to be extremely carefull with shorting USDJPY. It has broken multiple layers of resistance with ease and fundamentally there is no real reason for a correction. Yellen may be less hawkish then expected, but Japanse macro's and economy are getting wrose with the time. BoJ mentioned to be willing to ease more and even bought bonds with negative return recently.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO KevinT
2 years ago
@KevinT - I see what you mean regarding your chart. What I posted before does not recommend looking at a pullback yet, although the possibility remains. However, the following chart which supported the initial analysis, has one target that remains unanswered:

snapshot



In the larger scheme of things, this is where it belongs in terms of the Model's probable price pathway:

snapshot



And finally, this monthly chart that provides a larger perspective of geometries at play:

snapshot



David
Reply
KevinT 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I didn't even notice the ABC.

Now I'be seen it, look at the similarities with USDCHF.

(don't mind all the drawing. This is a project I'be been working on for a while. Called Kevin the Hand Sitting Trend Rider :P
snapshot
Reply
KevinT KevinT
2 years ago
As a test, I opened a very small position a long time ago. Trying to ride the major trend reversal (see double bottom)
Reply
jonatsgonats KevinT
2 years ago
Target almost there 109.67... but can defy and go to 400 first?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO jonatsgonats
2 years ago
Hello @jonatsgonats - I am not sure what you are referring "400" to. Regardless, the price action I provide is a high probability proposition based on a predictive/forecasting model. The outcome may be completely different from the model, although in the majority of times, it remains dead-on or close to it. If a variation exists, then it would need to be compared to how much this represents to your own pre-defined adverse excursion/risk tolerance - David
Reply
jonatsgonats 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi. 400 is number base on forecast long term by Kyle Bass on USDJPY several years back. :D Thanks for input chief!
+1 Reply
29 SEP 2014 - Update:

From "Predictive Analysis & forecasting" chatroom:
(Link: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst6YxeVqGlaO )

----------

snapshot


"$USDJPY - Look for possibility of an Eliiott Wave Regular Flat completion at Point-C ~ 108.677 via a IMP - David"
----------

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
30 SEP 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
-----------
$USDJPY hit target @ 109.786; Wolfe Waves Pattern pending at 5'; Then, major correction?

snapshot


@tradingview | $USD $JPY
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snapshot



Also, consider these recent $USDJPY analyses with same forecast:

1 - $JPY Hit Forecast TG @ 107.509; Eyes TG-Hi @ 109.786 | #forex:
-
$JPY Hit Forecast TG @ 107.509; Eyes TG-Hi @ 109.786 | #forex


2 - $JPY Nears Target-High @ 106.614 | $USD $JPY #Yen #Nikkei #forex:
-
$JPY Nears Target-High @ 106.614 | $USD $JPY #Yen #Nikkei #forex


Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
02 NOV 2014 - Update:

------------------------
SYNOPSIS:
1 - TG-Hi = 109.162 got hit, but failed to act as reversal
2 - Reversal failure at TG-Hi calls for a "Worst-Case scenario", defining TG-x @ 116.162
3 - Background geometry highlights forceful bearish strength in rare 5-second attainment
------------------------


Traders,

As you may recall, a recent analysis left the directional bias to "Neutral", concluding that a directional commitment had yet to be declared (See analysis and conclusion in this link:
Is A Rally Realizable? Market Gemetries Offer An Insight | $JPY
).

At this point, we are nearing a significant resistance. The original reversal level was defined within this original chart as:

- TG-Hi = 109.786 - 12 SEP 2014

This level has since been reached, and price clung to the high as of the close of this past trading week.

You may also recall that a 38.3-Fibonacci retracement was expected to occur, offering price a structural respite level before a potential resumption to higher highs.

While the gist of price action remains probable along these lines, I have resubmitted the data to the predictive/forecasting model, considering the significant surpassing of TG-Hi, and the bulls' resilience. Based on a "Worst-Case Scenario", the predictive/forecasting model has thus refined its nominal target as follows:


- TG-x = 116.162 - 02 NOV 2014


A potential background pattern in the form of a Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves Pattern ("WW") is overlaid to offer a geometric context in support of the model's target. As you may recall in prior description of WW, Point-5' ("Point-5 prime") tends to impose the most common level of reversal, followed by Point-5, and on rarest occasion, Point-5" ("Point-5 second"). The latter would most often be associated with an aggressive directional force (here, an aggressively bullish market). In fact, as the chart below illustrates, the 5' position was faked out by a near-hit, followed by a faked-out reversal. Instead, price rallied on up to a level higher than 5 or 5' - In the context of WW, one has to suspect that a 5" target will possibly be the next level of geometric attraction.

In the context of our "Worst-Case Scenario", where the predictive/forecasting model defines the least probable outlier value defined by TG-x (here equaling 116.162), there is added reason to believe that such 5-second level could be attained.

For the time being, the lower timeframes are screaming for a relaxation in price, in the form of an interim limited price decline. Here again, this price decline is illustrated as a speculative YELLOW arrow in the chart below.


OVERALL:

Price rose to higher levels than the model's nominal TG-Hi. Once this occurs, the analysis is called to higher levels of consideration in terms of timeframe, as this is often associated with heavier players interfering with smaller-degree timeframes.

This called for the re-definition of a worst-case scenario based on outlier predictive/forecasting model's values using a higher timeframe. The result is the chart below.



snapshot




Cheers,


David Alcindor


=======================
Posted on Twitter as:

"$USDJPY eyes 116.162 following shallow retracement:

-
$JPY Sees Reversal @ 96.710 Before 152.073 via #elliottwave Flat


via @tradingview | $USD $JPY #BOE #nikkei #forex "
=======================
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
ADDENDUM:

In the context of the original chart, here is where a 38.2-Fibonacci retracement would stand:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
04 NOV 2014 - Update:

Price reached pattern's 5" position; meets resistance:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
07 NOV 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$USDJPY coming to significant forecast level at 116.162:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $USD $JPY $ES $SPX $SPY #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
10 NOV 2014 - Update:


If 114.949 holds, further price decline might occur below structure @ 113.847 - See M15 chart below:

snapshot



The interest here is the resolution of this Wolfe Waves pattern (see DAILY chart below), where the expectation is bearish, as pattern strains price towards its 1-4 "Take-Profit" Line:

snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
11 NOV 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$USDJPY nears 116.162 target; Hig-probability reversal:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $USD $JPY $ES $SPX #BOJ #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
17 NOV 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$USDJPY fell short of 117.114 target; WW pattern contemplates 1-4 Profit Line:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $USD $JPY #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
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