4xForecaster

$JPY Sees Reversal @ 96.710 Before 152.073 via #elliottwave Flat

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
2202 36 17
Friends,

Several months ago (March 04th, 2014), this $JPY was sitting at 102.2 when the predictiive/forecasting model released two target that eventually got hit - Replay the price action here:
Potential Bullish Targets | $USD $JPY $UDX $Nikkei
.

Today, I would like to make a case for a similar lofty, long-term call with an intermediate unwinding to the downside first, as to provide price with the necessary technical springboard before its ascension to a potential historical high.

For now, the downside target is purely Fibonacci-based, seeking a 38.2% retracement relative to the recent upswing. Playing out this approximate scenario, the predictive/forecasting model was able to define a lofty target as well. But first, let's talk about the technical reasons behind the moves, before we define the targets per se:


TECHNICAL RATIONALE - Using Weekly Chart
(Link to Weekly Chart:
snapshot
)

1 - Price has rallied sustainably until now. In fact, a simple Elliott Wave analysis should easily demonstrate that recent ascension was built on the back of a FIRST WAVE EXTENSION, now arriving at a consolidation pattern, knows to the Elliotician as an Ending Triangle.

2 - In the more general view of the chart, one can also appreciate that price has approached historical price clusters to its left of the MONTHLY price field, which define prior support turned resistance as of now. In order to define that level, one may turn to Fibonacci's lowest acceptable 38.2% as far as building a geometric             pattern fro which to propulse future price action.

3 - A proprietary pattern ("Janus Pattern") sees a support as low as 88.989 - While this prop pattern cannot be shared, I will simply announce it here as a way to established the LOWEST possible retracement in that WEKLY chart - Link provided above.

4 - Now, looking at the last and loftiest target, we will consider that this Weekly chart is in the process of defining an ELLIOTT WAVE's Bearish Flat, whose skeletal anatomy demands a 3-3-5 structure, to define Waves A, B and C, respectively. As we just discussed about a retracement to a significant low, one may now assume that this forecast low would become a basis for a rise paced in a 5-wave             fashion to define the final Point-C of this flat. See Monthly flat to appreciate the relative positions of Points A and C, each born out of zig-zag waves as per EWP             rules, where A represents an upwards correction of 3-wave             structure, B a 3-wave             ipsi-directional to major trend, and C an expected 5-wave             structure.


TARGET DEFINED:

All rationale above yielded the following targets, written in the order of expected price action development:

1 - TG-Hi = 109.786 - 12 SEP 2014

2 - TG-Lo = 88.989 - JANUS PATTERN - 12 SEP 2014

and

3 - TGx = 152.073 - 12 SEP 2014


OVERALL:

Note that SPX             and $USDJPY             are well correlated, and that this analysis in the most immediate term reflects a similar upturn of e-Mini S&P500             ES, just posted today - See that analysis here:
- https://www.tradingview.com/v/tOzh2Ona/#tc98828

As I post this, please allow me the time to also post other pertinent timeframes to put the entire analysis in its proper context.

Thank you.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


--------------------
Twitter: @4xForecaster
--------------------
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
17 NOV 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$USDJPY fell short of 117.114 target; WW pattern contemplates 1-4 Profit Line:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $USD $JPY #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
11 NOV 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$USDJPY nears 116.162 target; Hig-probability reversal:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $USD $JPY $ES $SPX #BOJ #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
10 NOV 2014 - Update:


If 114.949 holds, further price decline might occur below structure @ 113.847 - See M15 chart below:

snapshot



The interest here is the resolution of this Wolfe Waves pattern (see DAILY chart below), where the expectation is bearish, as pattern strains price towards its 1-4 "Take-Profit" Line:

snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
07 NOV 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$USDJPY coming to significant forecast level at 116.162:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $USD $JPY $ES $SPX $SPY #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
04 NOV 2014 - Update:

Price reached pattern's 5" position; meets resistance:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
02 NOV 2014 - Update:

------------------------
SYNOPSIS:
1 - TG-Hi = 109.162 got hit, but failed to act as reversal
2 - Reversal failure at TG-Hi calls for a "Worst-Case scenario", defining TG-x @ 116.162
3 - Background geometry highlights forceful bearish strength in rare 5-second attainment
------------------------


Traders,

As you may recall, a recent analysis left the directional bias to "Neutral", concluding that a directional commitment had yet to be declared (See analysis and conclusion in this link:
Is A Rally Realizable? Market Gemetries Offer An Insight | $JPY
).

At this point, we are nearing a significant resistance. The original reversal level was defined within this original chart as:

- TG-Hi = 109.786 - 12 SEP 2014

This level has since been reached, and price clung to the high as of the close of this past trading week.

You may also recall that a 38.3-Fibonacci retracement was expected to occur, offering price a structural respite level before a potential resumption to higher highs.

While the gist of price action remains probable along these lines, I have resubmitted the data to the predictive/forecasting model, considering the significant surpassing of TG-Hi, and the bulls' resilience. Based on a "Worst-Case Scenario", the predictive/forecasting model has thus refined its nominal target as follows:


- TG-x = 116.162 - 02 NOV 2014


A potential background pattern in the form of a Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves Pattern ("WW") is overlaid to offer a geometric context in support of the model's target. As you may recall in prior description of WW, Point-5' ("Point-5 prime") tends to impose the most common level of reversal, followed by Point-5, and on rarest occasion, Point-5" ("Point-5 second"). The latter would most often be associated with an aggressive directional force (here, an aggressively bullish market). In fact, as the chart below illustrates, the 5' position was faked out by a near-hit, followed by a faked-out reversal. Instead, price rallied on up to a level higher than 5 or 5' - In the context of WW, one has to suspect that a 5" target will possibly be the next level of geometric attraction.

In the context of our "Worst-Case Scenario", where the predictive/forecasting model defines the least probable outlier value defined by TG-x (here equaling 116.162), there is added reason to believe that such 5-second level could be attained.

For the time being, the lower timeframes are screaming for a relaxation in price, in the form of an interim limited price decline. Here again, this price decline is illustrated as a speculative YELLOW arrow in the chart below.


OVERALL:

Price rose to higher levels than the model's nominal TG-Hi. Once this occurs, the analysis is called to higher levels of consideration in terms of timeframe, as this is often associated with heavier players interfering with smaller-degree timeframes.

This called for the re-definition of a worst-case scenario based on outlier predictive/forecasting model's values using a higher timeframe. The result is the chart below.



snapshot




Cheers,


David Alcindor


=======================
Posted on Twitter as:

"$USDJPY eyes 116.162 following shallow retracement:

-
$JPY Sees Reversal @ 96.710 Before 152.073 via #elliottwave Flat


via @tradingview | $USD $JPY #BOE #nikkei #forex "
=======================
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
ADDENDUM:

In the context of the original chart, here is where a 38.2-Fibonacci retracement would stand:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
30 SEP 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$USDJPY hit target @ 109.786; Wolfe Waves Pattern pending at 5'; Then, major correction?

snapshot


@tradingview | $USD $JPY
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Also, consider these recent $USDJPY analyses with same forecast:

1 - $JPY Hit Forecast TG @ 107.509; Eyes TG-Hi @ 109.786 | #forex:
-
$JPY Hit Forecast TG @ 107.509; Eyes TG-Hi @ 109.786 | #forex


2 - $JPY Nears Target-High @ 106.614 | $USD $JPY #Yen #Nikkei #forex:
-
$JPY Nears Target-High @ 106.614 | $USD $JPY #Yen #Nikkei #forex


Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
29 SEP 2014 - Update:

From "Predictive Analysis & forecasting" chatroom:
(Link: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#5eHLst6YxeVqGlaO )

----------

snapshot


"$USDJPY - Look for possibility of an Eliiott Wave Regular Flat completion at Point-C ~ 108.677 via a IMP - David"
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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
19 SEP 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
-------------
$USDJPY remains expectant of several unanswered overhead targets @ 109.786

snapshot


via @tradingview $JPY #BOJ $USD #Forex
--------------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
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