The $USDJPY posted a series of triangular geometries whose Fibonacci relationship remains significant (see ).
Just as importantly, a finaer granular analysis of internal geometries would also suggest that added upside remains probable as of this market close (10 OCT 2014):
Following is a cut/paste discussion held from a recent $USDJPY posting, where I highlight internal market geometries, most of them expressed in terms of Mr. Bill Wolfe's pattern - Here is the content:
(...) Looks like we are dealing with a COR (M15/M60) within a COR (M240/DAILY) within a COR (WEEKLY), wherein a series of internal triangles/WW are boxed within one another. Here are the three timeframes in which these geometries have occurred:
1 - WEEKLY VIEW:
A hit 109. xx target and came to a 5-prime position. Yet, price is now resting on pattern's 1-3-5 Line, which may suggest a potential support. Less likely to occur here would be a rare 5-second (5") event:
2 - DAILY VIEW (same as weekly pattern):
Note here that a large WW already met its 5-prime requirement for a reversal. This chart alone speak against any significant rallying potential, although the current price at market closure rested on a significant 1-3-5 Line support:
3 - 4-HOUR VIEW:
Here, there is a definite geometric conflict worth pondering:
a -- Price rests at 1-3-5 Line of a larger WW (seen above in DAILY and WEEKLY views)
b -- An internal WW (BLUE) reached its own 5-prime, indicating a probable rallying event
c -- A larger WW (PINK) also reached its own 5-prime position, reinforcing a similar rallying heralding:
4 - 60-MIN. VIEW:
In this chart, we are looking at the internal WW (BLUE) illustrated in the 4-Hour chart above. Here, the technical detail go a bit further, as we are seeing a sitting on its own supporting , within its own triangle.
While price has been pushed to a significant level, both the geometries and technical indicators are calling for a pullback. While this remains only a probability event, it its quite interesting to see how a lot of this internal-within-internal geometries are supporting a net reactive rally probability. Sunday's open might possibly offer a directional flavor for the remainder of the week.
As you may recall, this chart (https://www.tradingview.com/v/oyoJ6O5y/) was looking at a potential upside, which has since been reached. Therefore, we are currently at a significant cross-road where bulls and bears are battling with crosses, arrows and and triangle shields in hands.
For the conflicting technical reasons above, I have chosen to turn TradingView's market direction tag to "Neutral"
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)
Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
$USDJPY continues to roll down from forecast 121.026 target; Bearish #fibonacci lurks:
@tradingview $USD $JPY #BOJ
$USDJPY winds around extreme target hit at 221.026; acts as R/S:
via @tradingview | $USD $JPY #BOJ #forex
This is one Forex pair that required a lot of recalibrations, re-definition of a constantly upward-evolving target. And yet, this still remains speculative - more so than any other predictive analysis/forecasting done in the Forex family of majors. This is potentially due to artificial interference of much larger players, such as central bank intervention (ZeroHedge.com offered several interesting articles about a coordinated action of several central banks purchasing US stocks, this pushing the SP-500 to a linear, almost mechanical, non-organic upward trance. Since the $USDJPY is tightly correlated to this particular index, it might possibly be a reflexive ascent driven by this background fundamental force - At least, that is the "usual suspect" here.
For this very unusual technical reason 9where price has been pushed to the model's extreme (rare) target, I also issued the following Twitter comment just now:
$USDJPY chart reached a rare 5-second position in a taut Wolfe Waves pattern:
via @tradingview | $USD $JPY #forex
In any case, all eys should now be turned to USDollar index, suggesting that it could move bearishly against its major counter-currencies:
Re-post of a comment that includes this Forex pair:
Hello @kmk.msp - Yes, I posted this a few days ago in here I believe. Point-5 usually needs to touch its 1-3 Line, but a 5-prime or 5-second do not have to occur. The pattern most often completes a 5-prime (I woulD estimated empirically about 60% of the time. Again: Empirically speaking), whereas the 5-second would occur up to/less than 10% of the time, empirically speaking).
Look for weakness in the $USD index ($USDollar) which is the US currency measured against a basket of major currencies. A decline in this $USDollar index will suggest a Forex-wide strengthening of currencies expressed against the $USD.
Instead of the $USDollar index, one could also look at other important pairs where reversal set up could be occurring. Here are a few of them I had posted recently:
$USDJPY - 4-Hour Chart: Here, the $Yen's weakness pushed the $USD to its target @ 188.83. A reversal is very plausible:
$USDJPY - Daily Chart: In this wider chart, a target was defined near 116.xx, falling short of a 5-second point validation:
$USDollar - Weekly Chart: Here, the Index rallied, but surpassed a 11218 target, underlining the strength of the $USDollar, which is most likely animated via the $Yen weakness:
It is widely believed that fundamental problems in Europe and EM will force major and secondary markets to devalue their currencies (something I wrote about several months ago in support of the $USD strengthening), which will reflexively prop the $USD up, since most of these markets are expressed in Dollar pairs.
However, I also believe on a pure technical basis that a relief will need to occur on the Dollar side, in the form of a significant correction (i.e.; a "relief rally" in the counter-currencies).
If this were to occur, it could support the WW completion towards the $AUDUSD's 1-4 Take-Profit Line, as well as prop the $BTCUSD as is widely expected at the moment, and lead to a significant devaluation of the $&P-500, as is expressed in its CME's $ES, since it too reached a significant landmark:
$ES - 4-Hour Chart: ES reached a significant 1.618-Fib extension level at 1074.00:
(I will cut/paste this reply in the threads where the Forex pairs are)
$ES hit 1.618-Fib @ 1074.00 today. This Fibonacci-defined level is very likely to impose a significant level of resistance with possible retracement down to a shallow 38.2-Fib level. as far as $USDJPY is concerned - See two charts below:
$ES - 4-Hour Chart:
$USDJPY - 4-Hour Chart:
This is all speculative, and meant to be educational, as we consider simple Fibonacci-based set-ups - Background predictive/forecasting model shares a similar bearish outlook.
$USDJPY hit target; Remains subdued to trendline; Bears gaining strength:
via @tradingview | $USD $JPY #forex #BOJ