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Is A Rally Realizable? Market Gemetries Offer An Insight | $JPY

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
1752 33 12
Friends,


The $USDJPY             posted a series of triangular geometries whose Fibonacci relationship remains significant (see DAILY chart ).

Just as importantly, a finaer granular analysis of internal geometries would also suggest that added upside remains probable as of this market close (10 OCT             2014):

Following is a cut/paste discussion held from a recent $USDJPY             posting, where I highlight internal market geometries, most of them expressed in terms of Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves pattern - Here is the content:

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Source:
(...) Looks like we are dealing with a COR (M15/M60) within a COR (M240/DAILY) within a COR (WEEKLY), wherein a series of internal triangles/WW are boxed within one another. Here are the three timeframes in which these geometries have occurred:

1 - WEEKLY VIEW:
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snapshot

A Wolfe Wave hit 109. xx             target and came to a 5-prime position. Yet, price is now resting on pattern's 1-3-5 Line, which may suggest a potential support. Less likely to occur here would be a rare 5-second (5") event:
snapshot


2 - DAILY VIEW (same as weekly pattern):
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snapshot

Note here that a large WW already met its 5-prime requirement for a reversal. This chart alone speak against any significant rallying potential, although the current price at market closure rested on a significant 1-3-5 Line support:
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3 - 4-HOUR VIEW:
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snapshot

Here, there is a definite geometric             conflict worth pondering:
a -- Price rests at 1-3-5 Line of a larger WW (seen above in DAILY and WEEKLY views)
b -- An internal WW (BLUE) reached its own 5-prime, indicating a probable rallying event
c -- A larger WW (PINK) also reached its own 5-prime position, reinforcing a similar rallying heralding:
snapshot


4 - 60-MIN. VIEW:
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snapshot

In this chart, we are looking at the internal WW (BLUE) illustrated in the 4-Hour chart above. Here, the technical detail go a bit further, as we are seeing a RSI sitting on its own supporting trendline , within its own triangle.
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OVERALL:

While price has been pushed to a significant bearish level, both the geometries and technical indicators are calling for a pullback. While this remains only a probability event, it its quite interesting to see how a lot of this internal-within-internal geometries are supporting a net reactive rally probability. Sunday's open might possibly offer a directional flavor for the remainder of the week.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
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OVERALL:

As you may recall, this chart (https://www.tradingview.com/v/oyoJ6O5y/) was looking at a potential upside, which has since been reached. Therefore, we are currently at a significant cross-road where bulls and bears are battling with crosses, arrows and and triangle shields in hands.

For the conflicting technical reasons above, I have chosen to turn TradingView's market direction tag to "Neutral"

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
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Hi David
I would consider a pullback to the levels I have drawn on top of your chart followed by a rally up to the level I have suggested at 113.60, which would also indicate a final push on the sp500 to record high - a tempting scenario and one that could be blown off course by events! How do these levels line up with your analysis?
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+1 Reply
Hello @pezq - Here is how your chart would look like in a discussion thread. Simply paste the https address (URL) in a window that opens once you click in the right upper corner icon in each typing window:

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Looking at the chart, I am not familiar with this circular pattern. Not sure what the focal point refer to.

I agree on the pullback though.

David

David
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
We had a nice going on the short side, looks like a triangle/ww's 5' is being hit. Now? I'm not too sure what to think, but it looks like the rally will finally come.
+1 Reply
@IvanLabrie - Best is to look at other similar $JPY crosses.

$NZDJPY:
- Currently at: 84.320
- Needs to reach: 83.504

$USDJPY:
- Currently at: 106.991
- Needs to reach: 106.715

$GBPJPY:
- Currently at: 171.945
- Needs to reach: 171.619

$CADJPY:
- Currently at: 95.556
- Needs to reach: 95.255


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
What was the index that was heavily correlated with it? Also, what do you think of this?  
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
Chart isn't visible for some reason, sorry:
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+1 Reply
@IvanLabrie - Yes, I alluded to it in the analysis above ("Less likely to occur here would be a rare 5-second (5") event").

In your chart, the 5-prime does not belong to the Point-1 origination. instead, 5-prime originates off of Point-3. What you have defined here is a 5-second position, which occurs rarely compared to 5-prime.

Depending on which data you use, 5-prime may or may not have occurred as of yet.

David
+1 Reply