4xForecaster

Is A Rally Realizable? Market Gemetries Offer An Insight | $JPY

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
1751 33 12
Friends,


The $USDJPY             posted a series of triangular geometries whose Fibonacci relationship remains significant (see DAILY chart ).

Just as importantly, a finaer granular analysis of internal geometries would also suggest that added upside remains probable as of this market close (10 OCT             2014):

Following is a cut/paste discussion held from a recent $USDJPY             posting, where I highlight internal market geometries, most of them expressed in terms of Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves pattern - Here is the content:

==========================
Source:
(...) Looks like we are dealing with a COR (M15/M60) within a COR (M240/DAILY) within a COR (WEEKLY), wherein a series of internal triangles/WW are boxed within one another. Here are the three timeframes in which these geometries have occurred:

1 - WEEKLY VIEW:
-
snapshot

A Wolfe Wave hit 109.xx target and came to a 5-prime position. Yet, price is now resting on pattern's 1-3-5 Line, which may suggest a potential support. Less likely to occur here would be a rare 5-second (5") event:
snapshot


2 - DAILY VIEW (same as weekly pattern):
-
snapshot

Note here that a large WW already met its 5-prime requirement for a reversal. This chart alone speak against any significant rallying potential, although the current price at market closure rested on a significant 1-3-5 Line support:
snapshot


3 - 4-HOUR VIEW:
-
snapshot

Here, there is a definite geometric             conflict worth pondering:
a -- Price rests at 1-3-5 Line of a larger WW (seen above in DAILY and WEEKLY views)
b -- An internal WW (BLUE) reached its own 5-prime, indicating a probable rallying event
c -- A larger WW (PINK) also reached its own 5-prime position, reinforcing a similar rallying heralding:
snapshot


4 - 60-MIN. VIEW:
-
snapshot

In this chart, we are looking at the internal WW (BLUE) illustrated in the 4-Hour chart above. Here, the technical detail go a bit further, as we are seeing a RSI sitting on its own supporting trendline, within its own triangle.
snapshot

OVERALL:

While price has been pushed to a significant bearish level, both the geometries and technical indicators are calling for a pullback. While this remains only a probability event, it its quite interesting to see how a lot of this internal-within-internal geometries are supporting a net reactive rally probability. Sunday's open might possibly offer a directional flavor for the remainder of the week.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
==========================


OVERALL:

As you may recall, this chart (https://www.tradingview.com/v/oyoJ6O5y/) was looking at a potential upside, which has since been reached. Therefore, we are currently at a significant cross-road where bulls and bears are battling with crosses, arrows and and triangle shields in hands.

For the conflicting technical reasons above, I have chosen to turn TradingView's market direction tag to "Neutral"

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


----------
Twitter: @4xForecaster
----------
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
pezq PRO
2 years ago
Hi David
I would consider a pullback to the levels I have drawn on top of your chart followed by a rally up to the level I have suggested at 113.60, which would also indicate a final push on the sp500 to record high - a tempting scenario and one that could be blown off course by events! How do these levels line up with your analysis?
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO pezq
2 years ago
Hello @pezq - Here is how your chart would look like in a discussion thread. Simply paste the https address (URL) in a window that opens once you click in the right upper corner icon in each typing window:

snapshot


Looking at the chart, I am not familiar with this circular pattern. Not sure what the focal point refer to.

I agree on the pullback though.

David

David
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
2 years ago
We had a nice going on the short side, looks like a triangle/ww's 5' is being hit. Now? I'm not too sure what to think, but it looks like the rally will finally come.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
@IvanLabrie - Best is to look at other similar $JPY crosses.

$NZDJPY:
- Currently at: 84.320
- Needs to reach: 83.504

$USDJPY:
- Currently at: 106.991
- Needs to reach: 106.715

$GBPJPY:
- Currently at: 171.945
- Needs to reach: 171.619

$CADJPY:
- Currently at: 95.556
- Needs to reach: 95.255


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
2 years ago
What was the index that was heavily correlated with it? Also, what do you think of this?  
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Chart isn't visible for some reason, sorry:
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
@IvanLabrie - Yes, I alluded to it in the analysis above ("Less likely to occur here would be a rare 5-second (5") event").

In your chart, the 5-prime does not belong to the Point-1 origination. instead, 5-prime originates off of Point-3. What you have defined here is a 5-second position, which occurs rarely compared to 5-prime.

Depending on which data you use, 5-prime may or may not have occurred as of yet.

David
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Oh, I was a bit confused...somehow missed that in your chart. I've seen too many charts today I guess :D Thanks for super fast reply. About the US index correlation with usdjpy, was it the Dow?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
@IvanLabrie - I look at the e-Mini S&P500: $ES - David
+1 Reply
14 OCT 2014 - Update - FIB CLUSTER POTENTIAL @ $1957.00:

Traders,

All hit except $NZDJPY

Looking at $ES correlation:


$ES pacing relative to $USDJPY might provide an idea as to the extent of a potential reactive rally.

In the ES, the entire bearish swing could rally UP to its 0.618-Fib, as follows:

1 - 38.2% @1921.25

2 - 50.0% @1939.00

and

3 - 61.2% @1957.00

HOWEVER, a Fib cluster overlay lines 0.886-Fib with the latter, (61.2% @1957.00) - See chart:


snapshot



OVERALL, there is a moderate probability that price would rally to an overall significant and internal minor Fib level of 0.618 and 0.886, respectively, at:

- 61.2% @1957.00


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
NOTE:

I have to say that the more I look at the ES in this scale, and the less persuaded I am about the nature of this swing, as to its imopulsive nature authenticity.

First, the deep retracements are reminiscent of a corrective price action;

Second, Wave-4 is coming to a very narrow encroachment into Wave-1's territory, thus challenging the IMP nature of that leg - If it remains an impulsive swing, then, I struggled with the possibility that it emanated from a larger Flat pattern (see below);

Third, the dominant trend from which this arose was bullish.


Yet, I wrote a request to Bob Prechter's site (EWI.com) about whether they would consider the possibility of an Elliott Wave's Extended Flat, but I heard nothing back from them - Here is the pattern I sent them (at the time, it was not going so far down, but the internal waves that denote a 3-3-5 internal development remain reminiscent of a Flat:


snapshot


(Chart course: "e-Mini" Chat Room:
- https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#Fu3tMkKy660WGNhU)


OVERALL:

The relevance of this discussion is to decipher any directional clue in this correlated CME futures index that would provide some extraneous information about $USDJPY.


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Excellent, thanks for sharing David. That is a very strange impulse indeed. Almost zigzagish.
+1 Reply
15 OCT 2014 - update:

Traders,

Bullish outlook is grim for the $JPY, as price dug lower.

In the M15 timeframe, a Wolfe Waves pattern sought expression of its 5-prime point to distorting depths. This could well mark a rallying towards the pattern's 1-4 Line (see M15 chart below), but any higher aspiration is becoming utopian each trading day (see H4 chart below):


$USDJPY - M15 chart:
snapshot



$USDJPY - H4 chart:
snapshot



As an Elliott Wave 5-internals is developing, the question is now becoming whether the current geometry (in dashed PURPLE) is about to become an ending diagonal - See DAILY chart:


$USDJPY - Daily chart:
snapshot



In any case, the widest geometry that completed in the WEEKLY chart is calling for a significant drop towards the WW's 1-4 Line - See WEEKLY chart:


$USDJPY - Weekly chart:
snapshot




OVERALL:
Looking at the predictive/forecasting model while ignoring the Wolfe Waves patterns ("WW") that have dominated over several timeframes, the chart has now favored decline as the pathway of least resistance.

If a rallying were to occur, it would most probably be of limited upside potential. For instance, the WW that just completed at Point-5' in the M15 timeframe might carry price up to the pattern's 1-4 Line, but any loftier elevation would be quite unlikely without a significant market reversal signal from the predictive/forecasting model, which remains bearish at this point.

Thank you,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
16 OCT 2015 - Update:

A lot of price action can occur between now and price's commitment to further downside. An overarching Wolfe Wave pattern demands completion at this point, and this will remain the technical tension for the next days, weeks or months, depending on how look it might take:


$USDJPY - Daily Chart: Wolfe Wave pattern looms unanswered:
snapshot



Cheers,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
17 OCT 2014 - Update:

Small WW in M15 frame:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
19 OCT 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$USDJPY opens at 5-prime of Wolfe Waves Pattern (WW); Larger WW dominates:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $USD $JPY #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
David, your forecasting model is pretty awesome...I managed to get to similar targets in AUD and JPY, but way more closer to the time they get hit (2-3 days). You called certain targets (ike the AUD wave 4 0.9 something high) ages ago. What do you think of the prospect of further upwards movement in usdjpy? I'm about to enter a short term long trade, based on my findings.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago