4xForecaster

Is A Rally Realizable? Market Gemetries Offer An Insight | $JPY

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
1753 33 12
Friends,


The $USDJPY             posted a series of triangular geometries whose Fibonacci relationship remains significant (see DAILY chart ).

Just as importantly, a finaer granular analysis of internal geometries would also suggest that added upside remains probable as of this market close (10 OCT 2014):

Following is a cut/paste discussion held from a recent $USDJPY             posting, where I highlight internal market geometries, most of them expressed in terms of Mr. Bill Wolfe's Wolfe Waves pattern - Here is the content:

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Source:
(...) Looks like we are dealing with a COR (M15/M60) within a COR (M240/DAILY) within a COR (WEEKLY), wherein a series of internal triangles/WW are boxed within one another. Here are the three timeframes in which these geometries have occurred:

1 - WEEKLY VIEW:
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snapshot

A Wolfe Wave hit 109. xx             target and came to a 5-prime position. Yet, price is now resting on pattern's 1-3-5 Line, which may suggest a potential support. Less likely to occur here would be a rare 5-second (5") event:
snapshot


2 - DAILY VIEW (same as weekly pattern):
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snapshot

Note here that a large WW already met its 5-prime requirement for a reversal. This chart alone speak against any significant rallying potential, although the current price at market closure rested on a significant 1-3-5 Line support:
snapshot


3 - 4-HOUR VIEW:
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snapshot

Here, there is a definite geometric             conflict worth pondering:
a -- Price rests at 1-3-5 Line of a larger WW (seen above in DAILY and WEEKLY views)
b -- An internal WW (BLUE) reached its own 5-prime, indicating a probable rallying event
c -- A larger WW (PINK) also reached its own 5-prime position, reinforcing a similar rallying heralding:
snapshot


4 - 60-MIN. VIEW:
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snapshot

In this chart, we are looking at the internal WW (BLUE) illustrated in the 4-Hour chart above. Here, the technical detail go a bit further, as we are seeing a RSI sitting on its own supporting trendline , within its own triangle.
snapshot

OVERALL:

While price has been pushed to a significant bearish level, both the geometries and technical indicators are calling for a pullback. While this remains only a probability event, it its quite interesting to see how a lot of this internal-within-internal geometries are supporting a net reactive rally probability. Sunday's open might possibly offer a directional flavor for the remainder of the week.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
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OVERALL:

As you may recall, this chart (https://www.tradingview.com/v/oyoJ6O5y/) was looking at a potential upside, which has since been reached. Therefore, we are currently at a significant cross-road where bulls and bears are battling with crosses, arrows and and triangle shields in hands.

For the conflicting technical reasons above, I have chosen to turn TradingView's market direction tag to "Neutral"

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
10 DEC 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$USDJPY continues to roll down from forecast 121.026 target; Bearish #fibonacci lurks:

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@tradingview $USD $JPY #BOJ
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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
Was a great run today David...spot on, as usual.
Eurusd, usdchf and this pair offered some great opportunities today.
Really clear and impulsive price action.
+1 Reply
08 DEC 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$USDJPY winds around extreme target hit at 221.026; acts as R/S:

snapshot


via @tradingview | $USD $JPY #BOJ #forex
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David Alcindor


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Traders,

This is one Forex pair that required a lot of recalibrations, re-definition of a constantly upward-evolving target. And yet, this still remains speculative - more so than any other predictive analysis/forecasting done in the Forex family of majors. This is potentially due to artificial interference of much larger players, such as central bank intervention (ZeroHedge.com offered several interesting articles about a coordinated action of several central banks purchasing US stocks, this pushing the SP-500 to a linear, almost mechanical, non-organic upward trance. Since the $USDJPY is tightly correlated to this particular index, it might possibly be a reflexive ascent driven by this background fundamental force - At least, that is the "usual suspect" here.

For this very unusual technical reason 9where price has been pushed to the model's extreme (rare) target, I also issued the following Twitter comment just now:


From Twitter:
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$USDJPY chart reached a rare 5-second position in a taut Wolfe Waves pattern:

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via @tradingview | $USD $JPY #forex
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snapshot



In any case, all eys should now be turned to USDollar index, suggesting that it could move bearishly against its major counter-currencies:


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David Alcindor
+1 Reply
30 NOV 2014 - Update:


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Re-post of a comment that includes this Forex pair:
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Hello @kmk.msp - Yes, I posted this a few days ago in here I believe. Point-5 usually needs to touch its 1-3 Line, but a 5-prime or 5-second do not have to occur. The pattern most often completes a 5-prime (I woulD estimated empirically about 60% of the time. Again: Empirically speaking), whereas the 5-second would occur up to/less than 10% of the time, empirically speaking).

Look for weakness in the $USD index ($USDollar) which is the US currency measured against a basket of major currencies. A decline in this $USDollar index will suggest a Forex-wide strengthening of currencies expressed against the $USD.

Instead of the $USDollar index, one could also look at other important pairs where reversal set up could be occurring. Here are a few of them I had posted recently:


$USDJPY - 4-Hour Chart: Here, the $Yen's weakness pushed the $USD to its target @ 188.83. A reversal is very plausible:
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$USDJPY - Daily Chart: In this wider chart, a target was defined near 116.xx, falling short of a 5-second point validation:
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$USDollar - Weekly Chart: Here, the Index rallied, but surpassed a 11218 target, underlining the strength of the $USDollar, which is most likely animated via the $Yen weakness:
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It is widely believed that fundamental problems in Europe and EM will force major and secondary markets to devalue their currencies (something I wrote about several months ago in support of the $USD strengthening), which will reflexively prop the $USD up, since most of these markets are expressed in Dollar pairs.

However, I also believe on a pure technical basis that a relief will need to occur on the Dollar side, in the form of a significant correction (i.e.; a "relief rally" in the counter-currencies).

If this were to occur, it could support the WW completion towards the $AUDUSD's 1-4 Take-Profit Line, as well as prop the $BTCUSD as is widely expected at the moment, and lead to a significant devaluation of the $&P-500, as is expressed in its CME's $ES, since it too reached a significant landmark:


$ES - 4-Hour Chart: ES reached a significant 1.618-Fib extension level at 1074.00:
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David Alcindor


(I will cut/paste this reply in the threads where the Forex pairs are)
D.
+1 Reply
26 NOV 2014 - Update:

$USDJPY coming under pressure. Potential early bearish impulse coming into shape, currently negotiating structure at 117.344:


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David Alcindor
Reply
26 NOV 2014 - Update:

$ES hit 1.618-Fib @ 1074.00 today. This Fibonacci-defined level is very likely to impose a significant level of resistance with possible retracement down to a shallow 38.2-Fib level. as far as $USDJPY is concerned - See two charts below:

$ES - 4-Hour Chart:
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$USDJPY - 4-Hour Chart:
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This is all speculative, and meant to be educational, as we consider simple Fibonacci-based set-ups - Background predictive/forecasting model shares a similar bearish outlook.


David Alcindor
Reply
25 NOV 2014 - Update:

From twitter:
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$USDJPY hit target; Remains subdued to trendline; Bears gaining strength:

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via @tradingview | $USD $JPY #forex #BOJ
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David Alcindor
Reply
19 NOV 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$WM1! / $JPY - Proximal target @ 0.84183; High prob reversal; Bullsi targets as defined:

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via @tradingview | #yen
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David Alcindor


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TECH-NOTE:

The chart just posted is a CME's Forex futures chart of the #Yen against the $USD - So, trader has to look at the chart inversely. A rallying of the $JPY futures would imply a decline of the $USDJPY Forex pair - David
Reply