There is a ("WW") pattern that just completed at its 5-prime (5') position in the 60-minunte chart - Despite the significant decline from Point-2 of this pattern, the predictive/forecasting model remains .
As this pattern develop, and if indeed there was ever a solid base to be had at Point-5', then I would remain open to the possibility of a reactive rally, albeit limited by the pattern's 1-4 Line (dashed BLUE line).
Using a significant 1.618 between Point-5 and Point5', one may cast an upside target along this line, such that 109.486 would represent the possible upside in question.
Added dimension can also help ascertain this target by the mere use of internal Fibonacci numbers, such as 0.786 and 0.886, whose range of values also offer a tight approximation in as an average result of the two:
(109.385 + 109.622) / 2 = 109.503, or 0.0175 pips from the 1.618-Fibonacci extension defined between Point-4 and Point-5'.
As the predictive/forecasting model remains , so should the trader's expectation remain open to a possible reactive upside. With the support of an advanced market geometry in the pattern, and the aid of simple Fibonacci levels, one can easily see how the upside may be quite real.
As a closing remark, and at the risk of bringing the picture to a complicated mess, here is the 4-hour view which demonstrates several of these WW pattern:
1 - One in GREY , which we used in recent analysis as an overlay to the predictive/forecasting model (see recent analysis here: );
2 - Another in BLUE, which is the subject of this current analysis;
3 - A final one in RED, dominating the entire picture.
The point here is that remain a dominant geometry throughout the $USDJPY pair (see link below in "Related Ideas"), which can be used in the trader's advantage.
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As a word of CAUTION:
There is also the possibility that the 5-prime would reside much LOWER - See attached chart below:
With the WW pattern, the lowest 5' residence can be defined by the parallel offer in the 2-4 Line, as it is placed off of Point-3. Along this parallel, a Point-5' may be defined as well.
So, best is to wait for a rallying from Poin-5 or Point-5'.
Wave counting is best done with a total view of the current chart, so that the waves can be better assessed as impulsive or corrective one the dominant trend is known. Ideally, I would look at 4 times the level above and 4 times the level below to aid in the wave count. In this case, 60 x 4 = 240 minute and 60 / 4 = 15 minute would let the 4-hour chart define the trend and the 15 minute chart define the internal count.
What do you mean by "... price cannot move in this direction if it were an expanded flat." Which segment of your chart are you referring to?
When referring to a corrective move, are you referring to an actual correction against a major trend, or are you simply referring to a correction as a matter of an internal zig-zag wave count (i.e.: Is the correction you are referring to a Wave-2 or Wave-4, or simply an internal segment of any of the larger-degree wave? ... I am not sure what segment of the price you are referring to).
* * * 09 OCT 2014 * * *
Potential upside to primary target defined at 1953.75 - See M15 chart (There might be an on-going Ending Diagonal that could potenitally bring price to a lower value (i.e down to TG-Lo = 1920.75), but this would represent the lowest low achievable per predictive/forecasting model:
I thought that posting a $ES offers an alternative insight into the $USDJPY, as both tend to remain positively correlated.
(TradingView Tip: To select and repost a chart that is already posted here or to bring one from any other discussion thread, simply hover over the chart with your mouse, then right-click and select "Copy Link Location". Then, in the right upper corner of your typing window, click the small icon. An inner window will appear. Simply paste the chart you selected. A URL will appear. Click insert, and that URL will appear bracketed at the very bottom of the writing window) - David
Following is a visual review of the 60-minute chart:
1 - 09 OCT 2014:
2 - 09 OCT 2014:
3 - 10 OCT 2014:
4 - 10 OCT 2014 (Market Close):
Most important feature here is the decision of RSI to close market right at its supportive trendline. This could preempt a surprise to the upside at market's open. The alternative here would be a break of the pattern's 1-3-5 Line to satisfy a 5-prime definition, which is a variance of the Wolfe Wave pattern featured overall.
Thank you and have a fantastic week-end,
1 - WEEKLY VIEW:
A Wolfe Wave hit 109.xx target and came to a 5-prime position. Yet, price is now resting on pattern's 1-3-5 Line, which may suggest a potential support. Less likely to occur here would be a rare 5-second (5") event:
2 - DAILY VIEW (same as weekly pattern):
Note here that a large WW already met its 5-prime requirement for a reversal. This chart alone speak against any significant rallying potential, although the current price at market closure rested on a significant 1-3-5 Line support:
3 - 4-HOUR VIEW:
Here, there is a definite geometric conflict worth pondering:
a -- Price rests at 1-3-5 Line of a larger WW (seen above in DAILY and WEEKLY views)
b -- An internal WW (BLUE) reached its own 5-prime, indicating a probable rallying event
c -- A larger WW (PINK) also reached its own 5-prime position, reinforcing a similar rallying heralding:
4 - 60-MIN. VIEW:
In this chart, we are looking at the internal WW (BLUE) illustrated in the 4-Hour chart above. Here, the technical detail go a bit further, as we are seeing a RSI sitting on its own supporting trendline, within its own triangle.
While price has been pushed to a significant bearish level, both the geometries and technical indicators are calling for a pullback. While this remains only a probability event, it its quite interesting to see how a lot of this internal-within-internal geometries are supporting a net reactive rally probability. Sunday's open might possibly offer a directional flavor for the remainder of the week.
$USDJPY: Are we yet at a 3rd upsurge level? Predictive Model remains Bullish:
via @tradingview | $USD $JPY #forex
In sum, the 5-prime would answer to a former incomplete 1-4 Line and meet the requirements of the current geometry under development.
Let's keep these exercises on the "Advanced Market Geos" thread (Link: ) for other traders to enjoy as well.
Some of the post is very old like 2014.
The wolfe wave indicator your guys are using can I also buy it from the website or is the indicator from another company.
I have start trading wolfe waves about 3 months back and is still learning.
Once TradingView is able to offer fee-based, private discussion rooms, then I will migrate back here. All charts use and promote TradingView products.