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#Fibonacci And Wolfe Pattern Offer Bullish Target | $JPY #Forex

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
1857 23 16
Friends,


There is a Wolfe Waves ("WW") pattern that just completed at its 5-prime (5') position in the 60-minunte chart - Despite the significant decline from Point-2 of this pattern, the predictive/forecasting model remains BULLISH .


WOLFE WAVES-BASED TARGET:
As this pattern develop, and if indeed there was ever a solid base to be had at Point-5', then I would remain open to the possibility of a reactive rally, albeit limited by the pattern's 1-4 Line (dashed BLUE line).


FIBONACCI-BASED TARGET:

Using a significant 1.618 Fibonacci expansion between Point-5 and Point5', one may cast an upside target along this line, such that 109.486 would represent the possible upside in question.

Added dimension can also help ascertain this target by the mere use of internal Fibonacci numbers, such as 0.786 and 0.886, whose range of values also offer a tight approximation in as an average result of the two:

(109.385 + 109.622) / 2 = 109.503, or 0.0175 pips from the 1.618-Fibonacci extension defined between Point-4 and Point-5'.


OVERALL:

As the predictive/forecasting model remains bullish , so should the trader's expectation remain open to a possible reactive upside. With the support of an advanced market geometry in the Wolfe Waves pattern, and the aid of simple Fibonacci levels, one can easily see how the upside may be quite real.

As a closing remark, and at the risk of bringing the picture to a complicated mess, here is the 4-hour view which demonstrates several of these WW pattern:

1 - One in GREY , which we used in recent analysis as an overlay to the predictive/forecasting model (see recent analysis here:
Can Bulls Rally From Wolfe Waves
);

2 - Another in BLUE, which is the subject of this current analysis;

AND

3 - A final one in RED, dominating the entire picture.

The point here is that Wolfe Waves remain a dominant geometry throughout the $USDJPY             pair (see link below in "Related Ideas"), which can be used in the trader's advantage.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA

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09 OCT 2014 - ADDENDUM:

Following are important related charts:


$USDJPY - Weekly - Link to analysis:
Can Bulls Rally From Wolfe Waves

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$USDJPY - H4 Chart:
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$USDJPY-H1 Chart:
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Thank you,

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
09 OCT 2014 - TECH-NOTE:

As a word of CAUTION:

There is also the possibility that the 5-prime would reside much LOWER - See attached chart below:


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With the WW pattern, the lowest 5' residence can be defined by the parallel offer in the 2-4 Line, as it is placed off of Point-3. Along this parallel, a Point-5' may be defined as well.

So, best is to wait for a rallying from Poin-5 or Point-5'.

Thank you,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
What type of triangle would this be in EW terms? I got to 106.18-106.5 as a market profile derived target in my own analysis (with some help from Tim West) Big support at 107.51 apparently. Got no way to chart that here at TV though. I went short from 108.10 down to 107.61, and got out for now. Interesting about the fractals with multiple Wolfe Waves in different timeframes, fascinating really.
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resurrector007 PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
snapshot
I was seeing a clear ending diagonal but price action seems weak. There is some support between 107.713 - 107.785.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO resurrector007
2 years ago
@resurrector007 - I am not sure I would level the waves the way you have done. The first wave down could be also construed as a bearish impulse, and so could the first wave up. The ensuing wave down is most probably a corrective type of wave (see how the red "a" of the bearish a-b-c is surpassed by the blue "c" of the bullish a-b-c.

Wave counting is best done with a total view of the current chart, so that the waves can be better assessed as impulsive or corrective one the dominant trend is known. Ideally, I would look at 4 times the level above and 4 times the level below to aid in the wave count. In this case, 60 x 4 = 240 minute and 60 / 4 = 15 minute would let the 4-hour chart define the trend and the 15 minute chart define the internal count.

David Alcindor

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resurrector007 PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
snapshot
True its a possibility. I had to take away the thought of an expanded flat because price cannot move in this direction if it were an expanded flat. I got a good ride from what you have as 1 to 2. The first wave down for wave 1 tho seems to have a first half as impulsive and the later half more corrective. Thats why I had it as a corrective move. I agree i will change this view eventually. At this point tho we all see a retracement upward at some point and i like your target as a safe exit and would watch the pattern and price action closely to reveal that.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO resurrector007
2 years ago
Hello @resurrector007:

What do you mean by "... price cannot move in this direction if it were an expanded flat." Which segment of your chart are you referring to?

When referring to a corrective move, are you referring to an actual correction against a major trend, or are you simply referring to a correction as a matter of an internal zig-zag wave count (i.e.: Is the correction you are referring to a Wave-2 or Wave-4, or simply an internal segment of any of the larger-degree wave? ... I am not sure what segment of the price you are referring to).

David
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resurrector007 PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
After the flat we would have a sideways move to continue a double or triple. But this is forming a wedge. So the c wave of a flat cast some doubts of a 5 wave vs 3 wave structure and needs a closer look. Big picture we have a final thrust upward for 5 of 5.
+1 Reply
09 OCT 2014 - Looking at the $ES (cut/paste from the e-Mini S&P500 chatroom - Link: https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#Fu3tMkKy660WGNhU :

--------------------------------------
* * * 09 OCT 2014 * * *

Potential upside to primary target defined at 1953.75 - See M15 chart (There might be an on-going Ending Diagonal that could potenitally bring price to a lower value (i.e down to TG-Lo = 1920.75), but this would represent the lowest low achievable per predictive/forecasting model:


snapshot



I thought that posting a $ES offers an alternative insight into the $USDJPY, as both tend to remain positively correlated.


David Alcindor
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hello david I think the decline continues if prices break 107.400 falls to 106.600
+1 Reply
manijeh.kazemi.33 manijeh.kazemi.33
2 years ago
timewest
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO manijeh.kazemi.33
2 years ago
@manijeh.kazemi.33 - Yes, I very much agree with you. However, I also look at correlations in the $USDJPY and seek out any detail that would suggest a reversal. However, by expectation of a significant rallying at this level diminishes after each trading day, for sure - David
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David, what kind of EW pattern is that forming right now?
Not sure if it still looks like an ED/WW.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Hello @IvanLabrie - Which chart are you referring to?

(TradingView Tip: To select and repost a chart that is already posted here or to bring one from any other discussion thread, simply hover over the chart with your mouse, then right-click and select "Copy Link Location". Then, in the right upper corner of your typing window, click the small icon. An inner window will appear. Simply paste the chart you selected. A URL will appear. Click insert, and that URL will appear bracketed at the very bottom of the writing window) - David
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11 OCT 2014 - SYNOPSIS of The Hourly Chart:

Following is a visual review of the 60-minute chart:


1 - 09 OCT 2014:
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2 - 09 OCT 2014:
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3 - 10 OCT 2014:
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4 - 10 OCT 2014 (Market Close):
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Most important feature here is the decision of RSI to close market right at its supportive trendline. This could preempt a surprise to the upside at market's open. The alternative here would be a break of the pattern's 1-3-5 Line to satisfy a 5-prime definition, which is a variance of the Wolfe Wave pattern featured overall.

Thank you and have a fantastic week-end,


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I was referring to this very chart, but I understand what you mean better now. This is a flat correction's wave C in the form of an 'impulse' as an ending diagonal, at least that's your take on it, which looks reasonable, since it's very hard to fit any kind of impulse with such sideways mess. Thanks! Cheers, Ivan.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
@IvanLabrie - I still do not see which chart you are talking about when you are referring to "this very chart" (visual would help quite a lot here). I have not written any wave count in the main chart of this discussion thread (i.e.: the 6-minute chart below). Feel free to precise what you were referring to - David

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IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Sorry, my bad David, the one right over my comment ^ with the Wolfe Wave/ending diagonal. I was thinking this is wave C from a flat correction to the main impulse advance, which ended on a previous ending diagonal as well:
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+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
@IvanLabrie - Looks like we are dealing with a COR (M15/M60) within a COR (M240/DAILY) within a COR (WEEKLY), wherein a series of internal triangles/WW are boxed within one another. Here are the three timeframes in which these geometries have occurred:

1 - WEEKLY VIEW:
A Wolfe Wave hit 109.xx target and came to a 5-prime position. Yet, price is now resting on pattern's 1-3-5 Line, which may suggest a potential support. Less likely to occur here would be a rare 5-second (5") event:
snapshot



2 - DAILY VIEW (same as weekly pattern):
Note here that a large WW already met its 5-prime requirement for a reversal. This chart alone speak against any significant rallying potential, although the current price at market closure rested on a significant 1-3-5 Line support:
snapshot



3 - 4-HOUR VIEW:
Here, there is a definite geometric conflict worth pondering:
a -- Price rests at 1-3-5 Line of a larger WW (seen above in DAILY and WEEKLY views)
b -- An internal WW (BLUE) reached its own 5-prime, indicating a probable rallying event
c -- A larger WW (PINK) also reached its own 5-prime position, reinforcing a similar rallying heralding:
snapshot



4 - 60-MIN. VIEW:
In this chart, we are looking at the internal WW (BLUE) illustrated in the 4-Hour chart above. Here, the technical detail go a bit further, as we are seeing a RSI sitting on its own supporting trendline, within its own triangle.
snapshot


OVERALL:

While price has been pushed to a significant bearish level, both the geometries and technical indicators are calling for a pullback. While this remains only a probability event, it its quite interesting to see how a lot of this internal-within-internal geometries are supporting a net reactive rally probability. Sunday's open might possibly offer a directional flavor for the remainder of the week.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Beautiful! Sometimes I'm amazed at the geometries and fractal properties of the market's graphical representations...Fun fact: should have just held on to my weekly chart based short which I had opened after seeing that WW in daily/weekly charts. I'll go grab some popcorn tomorrow at NY open.
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11 OCT 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
---------------------
$USDJPY: Are we yet at a 3rd upsurge level? Predictive Model remains Bullish:

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via @tradingview | $USD $JPY #forex
--------------------


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David Alcindor
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iefan PRO
2 years ago
$USDJPY 25 March 2015

Not sure if this is the correct thread to post my chart, would you mind having a quick look at it?
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+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
@iefan - Here is what is probable, based on available projections from former geometries:


snapshot



In sum, the 5-prime would answer to a former incomplete 1-4 Line and meet the requirements of the current geometry under development.

Let's keep these exercises on the "Advanced Market Geos" thread (Link:
Advanced Financial Market Geos - Educational Ideas & Discussions
) for other traders to enjoy as well.


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
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