4xForecaster
Long

#Yen At Significant Support | #Nikkei $JPY $USD #forex #BOJ $Yen

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
890 26 13
Friends,

As indicated in recent predictive/forecasting model commentary, USD has gained strength. Applying a EW model, one might appreciate a supportive argument for the proposed bullish bias of the predictive/forecasting model.

Fundamentals also suggest strengthening of the greenback against a continued dilutive monetary policy .

Net outlook is BULLISH for the $Yen.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting


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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
DanV MOD
2 years ago
I think that in theory your next leg up might develop. Though from purely EW perspective your labels might be out a little from my interpretation of EW, which suggest that we have the high in place already and are in early stage of new major downtrend which could retrace 50% of the entire move up from major low, but with monthly chart and taking in more data along with intermarket analysis are of the opinion that we could be looking for a retest of the major low as minimum. Here is the chart only an outline of my expectation.
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+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO DanV
2 years ago
@DanV - Thank you so much for your contribution DanV. What I have tempted to do is overlay a probable EW model atop my predictive model, yielding the following chart:

snapshot


In the original chart of this thread, I drew a preliminary contracting diagonal triangle (i.e.: preliminary in the sense where Point-1 originates at Point-(3), as the Point-(3)-to-Point-1 trendline continues to evolve).

Once the next validation point of that rising trendline is complete, then it should define the final Point-1, which should be one off to the right.

So, this should end up yielding the chart I just posted in this comment.

Here again, the bias is purely system-based, as I use my prop model as a primary template, then overlay a probable EW development as a secondary layer - Advanced patterns, channels and other price-driven geometries are of tertiary/lesser values, as usual.

Feel free to chime in and offer any correction here or anywhere I post something outrageously wrong or subtly incorrect about EW. I would much rather row with the rising tide and feel that I gain a little buoyancy of knowledge any trading day than paddle against a sucking siphon of static over-confidence.

So, yes, thank you for righting my little dingy boat anytime you see it fit, please.

David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO DanV
2 years ago
@DanV - Also interesting in the monthly chart is nearing of recent price action towards a long-term trendline:

snapshot


I looked at the potential diagonal development as a price-vehicle to further its march into the downtrend, and then complete the retracement you have defined in your chart. Not that one scenario is more probable than the other, as I much rather doubt my system and gain confirmation of its robustness everytime it works. Yet, I have high regards towards the EW waves as well.

In essence, I'd look at the two (predictive/forecasting model vs. EW model) much like I watch my MMA fights: Tomato paste-laden carbohydrate crusts, carbonated ethanol and my shoes off the ground with a satisfaction of a winner at the end.

So long as I learn a little something that I may apply tomorrow, it's a win-win "TKO" every time.

David


* Technical Knowledge Outcome
Reply
DanV MOD 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Well David, I was just going to refer to Monthly chart, but there is no data on this chart before May 1993, but based on my knowledge of the USDJPY's relentless decline over the period for the purpose of this chart I am making assumption of where the price have come from. To me it is strongly suggesting that we have a possible top and that there is evidence of false break to the upside and RSI clearly suggesting weakening and failing momentum. Otherwise similar conclusion to your above monthly chart.
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+1 Reply
DanV MOD DanV
2 years ago
Also based on Daily I think we have 1st decline that is exhibiting minor 5 waves suggesting an impulsive downside wave in the form of wave "i" and subsequent messy retracement in the form of wave "ii". That suggest we have no further upside possible.
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DanV MOD DanV
2 years ago
Finally knowing that Nikkie has very high correlation to USDJPY, here is a screencast of my attempt at free hand drawing of trendlines using mouse as I don't have live chart with ability to draw lines such as on TV with back history of price data but it clearly illustrate that we have a possible major topping region Which I think took place in Oct 2013. Putting it all together, I would be looking to short on any bounce of weakness below current support. My 2 pence worth - http://www.screencast.com/t/C1hXSXNj
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO DanV
2 years ago
Loving it, DanV. These are very compelling arguments.

From a more occult approach, another hidden geometry-based analysis I use when having to dig a little are my momental lines - They may appear to act like parallels of a channel, but unlike channels, they survive the entire lifespan of the chart, highlighting a rate of trade, rather than a standard temporary channeled price action.

Right now, price is on a weaker momental line, meaning that it can fall from it, in contrast to a double line (where more validations have occurred in that narrow span), where price typically bounce off of.

Weird? Yes, but the lines are borne out of hidden geometries that work on pretty much any chart. Here, price action is taking place at a line that may reject or support price:

snapshot



So, besides my occult analyses, I really do not have anything better to compare against the solid body of evidence which EW constitute. Problem is: Is your interpretation of the EW correct, and I am simply nuts - LOL. My wife would tell you the answer right away, and it never bears out in my favor, usually ... The nutty part.

Finally, the 50% price action may or may not represent a potential target. Here too, it would come close to my TG-Hi.

David Alcindor
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11 MAY 2014 - Twitter forecast released:

"Twitter Release now: Market gap-opened at prior high support @ 101.843. MODEL: Increasing resistance @ 101.919 > 102.085 > 102.234. ST Bull, LT neutral"

David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Just corrected typo: ST is bull, LT is neutral.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Trade Update:

Bullish directional bias ... check ...
101.843 support ... check ...
101.919 target ... hit ... check ...
102.085 target ... pending ...

David Alcindor
Reply
NOTE - Major Currency Forecast Per Institutional Bank: $USDJPY

BNP Parisbas:

Q2 '14 = 108
Q3 '14 = 109
Q4 '14 = 110

Q1 '15 = 112
Q2 '15 = 115
Q3 '15 = 120
Q4 '15 = 124

Note: These forecasts from major institutional players not trend recommendations, but represent a fundamentally driven sentiment - These numbers are NOT part of my model, but as a global trader, it is not a bad idea to look at what price-moving institutions think and where they lean.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
FX_LAB_PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Nice, btw, where can we get the BNP Parisbas forecasts?.?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO FX_LAB_PRO
2 years ago
@FX_PRO - Here is a good institutional insight, comprising fundamentals, quant data and forecasts:

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/paym/groups/pdf/fxcg/2301/Market_Review.pdf??6cc628f9548ca7133ba1575f9b2adc82

Enjoy!

David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Additional sources worth keeping tab on:

https://mninews.marketnews.com/

David Alcindor
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Mirandole
2 years ago
I support this Trade :)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Mirandole
2 years ago
Ah ah! Merci Serge - David
+1 Reply
Bitcoin 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Nice tennis match between you and Dan. :) Looks like stale mate. Dan asked me to do a quick analysis a couple of days ago and I came up with the EW wave being complete and coupled with a rising then falling wedge concluded a corrective leg down to 94 in the cards. I did this without knowing any of the TA from you fine fellows at that time so it is an independent viewpoint. :) That was my Natoshi's worth. lol Game continues on today with match set at duece imho. :)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Bitcoin
2 years ago
Hi, @Treveley - Thank you. DanV's input is valuable, as his EW analysis - if correct - would offer a very objective wave-based directional analysis. It's not meant to be a competition, but an overlay of two maps with light shining through. Where the lines intersect is one interesting thing, but where they diverge is where the market's lessons are.

Any significant decline below Sunday's open would tilt the short-term directional bias of my instrument.

David Alcindor
Reply
Bitcoin 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David-

Not meant to insinuate a competition at all. I just try to have fun at this serious game of investing thus the tennis analogy. My jocular spirit is sometimes not identified in my comments. My apologies if I intruded unintentionally. I questioned my own (and still do) analysis after this was posted so I will get busy understanding the various viewpoints as I do plan to invest in this instrument.

Warm Regards,

Trevorr
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Bitcoin
2 years ago
@Treveley - No offense taken at all. I very much appreciate your input. The variety in points of view is really what matters here. Looking back, one will be right and the other wrong about the direction, but it won't be held against one another. On the contrary, being wrong will definitely force me to look closer at EW methodologies - David.
Reply
12 MAY 2014 - Twitter Signal/Trade Recap:

$USDJPY Recap:
1 - Directional prediction held
2 - TG @ 101.919 hit
3 - TG @ 102.085 hit
4 - TG @ 102.234 pending

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
TradingView Moderator


-------------------------------
Follow me on Twitter for instantaneous, free signal, analysis, forecast
- Alias: 4xForecaster
(All analyses, signals and forecasts use 100% home-grown, hand-made thru TradingView.com fantastic suite of technical tools
- So join, share and grow the TradingView community with us)
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Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Note: As indicated before, watch for a possible reactive a-b-c low via a corrective wave, given the EW model. However, my prop model has remained correct so far, as market open strongly in the direction of the forecast targets:

snapshot


I would like to see a price closing ABOVE the prior weekly candle by the time the US market closes.

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
12 MAY 2014 - Last update:

$USDJPY Recap:
1 - Directional prediction held
2 - TG @ 101.919 hit
3 - TG @ 102.085 hit
4 - TG @ 102.234 ... Hit!

Cheers,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
TradingView Moderator


-------------------------------
Follow me on Twitter for instantaneous, free signal, analysis, forecast
- Alias: 4xForecaster
(All analyses, signals and forecasts use 100% home-grown, hand-made thru TradingView.com fantastic suite of technical tools
- So join, share and grow the TradingView community with us)
------------------------------
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
13 MAY 2014 - Those interested in a counter-trend trade at a smaller timeframe, get my Twitter signals. New pattern completed and new target set ... Does NOT contradict long-term bullish target and directional bias.

Cheers,

David Alcindor

PS: Twitter alias: @4xForecaster
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Chart update for counter-trend potential:

snapshot


David Alcindor
Reply
14 MAY 14 - Chart Update:

Moving on down as per forecast - Analysis just released on Twitter (alias @4xForecaster) at this following link and text:
-
Bearish Target Nearing ... Support @ 101.631 | $USD $JPY #forex



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Friends,

Here is a short update:

Since the signal announcement this yesterday, the $Yen plunged gradually, then precipitously towards the forecast TG-1 = 101.631.

This signal followed a preceding bullish signal that say all three targets getting hit consecutively, before we turned to this short-term short opp.

At this point, TG-1 remains in force and intact, as the predictive/forecasting model has not produced any contradictory signal to perturb the current forecast.

The colored arrows in the chart speculate a probable price action path and do not reflect a timing anticipation - Until then, good profits!

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
TradingView moderator

--------------------------
Get instantaneous signals, forecasts, analyses from Twitter
- Alias: @4xForecaster
--------------------------
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Cheers!

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
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