4xForecaster

Potential Reversal To 101.493 | $JPY $USD $Nikkei #BOJ #forex

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
2135 48 14
SYNOPSIS:

Potential Reversal
- Condition: 115.551 failure
- Opens to:

1 - TG-Lo =104.750 - 05 JAN 2015

and

2 - TG-x =101.493 - 05 JAN 2015


Structural Relevance applies to latter ("TG-x =101.493 - 05 JAN 2015")

(Note that separate analysis on the UDX and USDollar             index were denounced as potential bearish reversal contenders per predictive model - See third link attached below for these analyses.)


STANDARD GEOMETRY:

A projection of parallels define a plausible bearish channel, whose upper projection caps the most recent bullish impulse. The overall system defines a bearish channel with multiple validation points at specific R/S levels and gaps, adding credence to these lines.

Still, a set of condition remains to be met, as defined below.


ELLIOTT WAVES:

Recent rally appears to have reached a plausible 5th wave extension with internal dynamics of a completed impulse. A rallying to higher highs would cancel this proposition, but a break below 115.551 would add credence to further downside.


PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS & FORECASTING:

Predictive model has defined the targets just mentioned above. As indicated, the first nominal target calls for a low-probability attainment and high-probability reversal at 104.750. However, a worst-case scenario played out in the model comes defined as TG-x = 101.493. This latter low-probability target/very-high-probability reversal falls in line with a significant historical R/S level, as highlighted in the chart.


OVERALL:

Standard technical pattern, predictive model and two-degree wave count point to a potential resistance at recent structural high of 121.838.

If recent support at 115.551 fails, the floor would open possibly to the predictive model's forecasts of TG-Lo = 104.750 and TG-x = 101.493.

These bearish outlook corroborate well with recent bearish forecast against the USD. For the time being, the directional bias remains set at "Neutral" based on mitigating reasons defined above.

Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
nikokoev
2 years ago
Nice David! If we add EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDCHF .... something will happen with dollar.
+1 Reply
jangseohee
2 years ago
Long term channel violated
Reply
Recluse82 jangseohee
2 years ago
i think we are in wave 4 for now and wave 5 is coming up now, unfortunately version A is more likely
Reply
jangseohee Recluse82
2 years ago
Hi Levente, Version B is the retracement - to find the most probable support, smaller timeframe is needed. Yes, i agree that Wave 4 is happening now.
If the green support can hold Wave 4 retracement, then Version A will be the Wave 5 to test 123.393
Reply
11 JAN 2015 - NEWS:

=============================
"Japan: Prime Minister To Propose $800 Billion Budget
January 11, 2015 | 20:25 GMT

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will submit to his Cabinet a 96.3 trillion yen ($813 billion) draft budget for the 2015-2016 fiscal year, government officials said, Reuters reported Jan. 11. The Cabinet will decide on the budget Jan. 14, and if successful, it will head to parliament for approval. Increased tax revenue will enable Japan to reduce bond issuances by 4.4 trillion yen to 36.9 trillion yen. Japan's economy still faces the restraint of a declining demographic base."

Source: Strafor - Global Intelligence
==============================

Relevance to FOREX:
Reduction in bond issuance might (just might) signify a reduction in BOJ's purchasing as a QE program. If this were to have a QE reduction effect, then consider the possibility of a $Yen strengthening. Balanced with the recent oil price slump (which reflexively carries its own QE effect by alleviating the burden of import and production cost of this 100% oil important dependent economy), this means that a new fiscal policy might strike a balance between less CB printing and maintaining a favorable production cost performance.

Any positive outlook on the $yen, combined with a market-wide expectation of eventual FED rate rise will tip the $USDJPY weekly chart in the forecast direction for the months ahead.

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
15 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$USDJPY holds its reversal stance at forecast level; Nears 115.551 trigger:

snapshot


@tradingview $USD $JPY #BOJ #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
Recluse82 4xForecaster
2 years ago
hi david, Uj is now consolidating in an abcde expanding triangle, i think breakout upside is going to jappan soon, what is your observation ? thx
Reply
Recluse82 Recluse82
2 years ago
jappan=happen
Reply
4xForecaster PRO Recluse82
2 years ago
Hello @lovasz.levente - Feel free to post your chart - Please, use the small icon on the top-right to be viewed easily - thank you. David
+2 Reply
30 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$USDJPY remains aloft but fails to carve new highs; Seeing 115.551 as capitulation signal floor:

snapshot


@tradingview $JPY
----------


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
03 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$USDJPY eyes potential decline as 115.551 floor cedes; Targets still intact:

snapshot


@tradingview $USD $JPY #BOJ #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
04 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$USDJPY falls in lower-tier of weekly consolidation; Bearish outlook and targets in force:

snapshot


@tradingview $JPY #BOJ
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Recluse82 4xForecaster
2 years ago
going to breakout from the consolidatin triangle, targetting 125
Reply
12 FEB 2015 - ARTICLE:

Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-12/traders-lose-faith-boj-another-weak-japanese-auction-sparks-jpy-jgb-turmoil


============================= See linked article for charts with text ==============================

Yet another weak Japanese bond auction (this time 5Y maturity - lowest bid-to-cover and biggest tail since 2013), on the heels of last night revelations of a growing chorus of JPY-devaluation-fears has many wondering if the faith they placed in The BoJ's grandest experiment was wrong after all. With speculators now net short for Japanese stocks for the first time since Abenomics was unleashed, a series of weak bond auctions and a spike in JGB yields since the ECB unleashed QE, and now a surging JPY (tumbling USDJPY) as carry trader around the world pull back on leverage and exposure... perhaps - the idea that a nation can devalue itself into prosperity on the backs of the rest of the world was total idiocy after all and Kyle Bass' Potemkin Village is about to fall.



Specs Net Short Japanese stocks for the first time since Abenomics...



Even the BoJ's ability to transform priunted money into wealth creation via the stock market is fading...



Another weak bond auction (lowest bid-to-cover and biggest tail since 2013) spikes JGB yields (remember, Japan cannot afford higher yields or the entire ponzi explodes under the weight of the interet burden and so The BoJ soaks up as much as possible to manage it... it has clearly lost control)...



And since The SNB / QECB double-whammy was unleashed it's really ugly.... the blue lines are recent weak JGB auctions



and for some context of just how huge these moves are... here is the JGB yield curve shift!!



As the last 24 hours has seen the final nail of USDJPY carry traders losing faith...





Charts: Bloomberg


============================= See linked article for charts with text ==============================


David Alcindor


OVERALL, if indeed the interest rate in Japanese bonds increased, it would carry the $Yen with it, and force the $USDJPY pair to a sustained decline. And this is exactly what the predictive/forecasting model has been posting for quite some times, eyeing an immediate support at TG-Lo = 104.75 and a solid base at TG-Lox = 101.49 - As follows:

snapshot




Looking at the correlated SPX500 index, a similar predictive/forecasting outcome was produced by the same model, as follows:

snapshot



Whether the correlation will hold is not so much the question, as the fact that both charts have moved in lock-step so far, and both are pointing to an imminent top - That top is likely fashioned by the internal weaknesses that have been developing within the $USDJPY indirectly, or more concernedly, directly from the weakened market interest in Japanese bond purchasing. For those not into bonds, simply understand that bonds are loans offered by the market to the government selling the bonds. In exchange, the government offers a guaranteed interest in return. If the market is NOT interested in the bonds (typically because there is a perceived risks that the government might NOT be able to reimburse the loans plus interest), then the interest is forced upwards - A caricature of this can be seen in the recent European debacle, where the Greek government had to pushed that rate so far up as to maintain an appetite in a constantly eroding social and economical environment (two important determinants of internal risks for those following the situation). If the interest rate is too high, the government might fail to reimburse the loan plus interest, and that the crux of what the US economy is all about: As long as the US finds buyers of its bonds (called "Treasuries" at the federal, long-term level), then it has the juice to fund, run and govern its political, social and economic programs. In the case of Japan, if the world perception is that its economy is lagging, its population is aging, its export is weakening, and the economic environment upon which it depends is not able to support its overall industry, then it will have to appetize and reward lenders at a higher premium, and this does nothing else but promise higher expenses in the future, a variable that is becoming more and more uncertain, except for its tendency to push interest rates higher as the uncertainty becomes, well, more certain.

The result? Pushing the $JPY side of the $USDJPY pair UP, and forcing the pair down into a sustained fall.

Stay tuned.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
15 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$USDJPY remains tethered in tightening geometry; Bearish forecast remains in force:

snapshot


@tradingview $USD $JPY #BOJ
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
05 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDJPY weaves 2 distinct geos; 5-prime point lines with TG-Hi = 120.78; Worth heeding

snapshot


@tradingview $USD $JPY #BOJ
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
05 MAR 2015 - Addendum:

Still very fits in the overall WEEKLY chart analysis:

-
snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Makes a lot of sense David...I'm bull on JPY vs the other currencies for now.

Short eurjpy, gbpjpy,cadjpy and audjpy looks good.

Nikkei probably topping? Looks a lot like a WW reaching for 5".
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Hello @IvanLabrie - Which chart Are you referring to in terms of the Nikkei. I can't see what you are talking about.

David
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
2 years ago
snapshot
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP IvanLabrie
2 years ago
And it's 5', sorry.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Got it. Yes, a decline from 5-prime could pull the Nikkei to a level slightly higher than the purple line - David
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
2 years ago
That's just what I consider to be the strongest support. Definitely stopping in between, not sure for how long, but it's falling, I'm rather sure.
Reply
Recluse82 IvanLabrie
2 years ago
as i can see there still room to the upper line to reach 5'. possible 20000-21000 to reach
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP Recluse82
2 years ago
The red line in my chart is a long term resistance, strongest level, where price traded the most historically. If anything we will see a brief spike past it, then down so, yes, I agree.
Reply
06 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDJPY hit target at 120.78 as forecast; High Prob. Reversal:

snapshot


@tradingview $USD $JPY #FED #BOJ #forex $EUR $CHF
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie TOP 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David, you're the man.
Reply
18 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDJPY carves out new structural lows; Eyes bearish 117.134 as forecast:

snapshot


@tradingview $USD $JPY #FED #BOJ #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
20 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDJPY meanders out of geo; Remains intent on bearish 117.134 target from 06 MAR 2015

snapshot


@tradingview $USD $JPY #BOJ
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
02 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
-----------
$USDJPY - Hit forecast 5', now rallying into overhead resistance zone:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/W4GwjLu0/#tc160541

@tradingview $USD $JPY #BOJ #forex $nikkei
------------


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David could this WW be forming?
snapshot
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
@iefan - Very high-prob, based on a prop pattern seeking to develop to the UP-side in the price vicinity - David
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
@iefan - I was looking at the progression of the dashed arrows you had drawn in your chart. Based on the steepness of the 1-4 Line, it will probably NOT be a target for the developing pattern you offered. However, this could possibly be taken as a clue that price is most likely to rise to ita 5-prime position.

In such a case, then the last dashed arrow you drew was be appropriately placed as well, as it would offer a landing range for price, as it returns from the 5' level (which, itself would represent its own Point-4 price level of another geometry).

Looking good.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
07 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDJPY likely to push on thru to Bearish Entrenchment range; Bearish outlook:

snapshot


@tradingview $USD $JPY #BOJ #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
ADDENDUM - $USDJPY: Geometric interplay:

snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
0 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDJPY validates Point-5; Bulls likely to push further on up to Bearish Entrenchment:

snapshot


@tradingview $USD $JPY #BOJ
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
NOTE: Above chart's date should read: "08 APR 2015" - David
+3 Reply
09 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDJPY moved above geo; About to define 5' near Bearish Entrenchment range as forecast:

snapshot


@tradingview $USD $JPY
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
What a gem of a forecast David.....getting ready for the ride down!
+2 Reply
28 APR 2015 - Update:

As per forecast, $USDJPY continues to roll from Bearish Entrenchment range and confirm the larger geometry via "Off-Set Rule completion (5' leads to Level-4 attainment). A smaller geo appears to be forming at this point, as follows:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
CORRECTION: Point-2 of the geometry did not magnetize to the structure high - Redrawing the triangle to reflect this slight change:

Note also that, based on the "Tunneling" concept, Point-4 remains un-confirmed. So, expect a rallying of price towards that 1-4 Line, such that a relative structure high will help confirm the final residence of Point-4. In the same manner, Point-5 remains pending, and may in fact be expressed via an ectopic 5' or 5", since the real interest here is not primarily to see the completion of the geo (although use it for the "audience" to gain a visual tracking), but to confirm that the Predictive/Forecasting Model, which produce the bearish target as "TG-Lo = 117.134 this past 06 MAR 2015, gets hit, as it often does:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
15 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDJPY: Weekly remains bearish per dominant bearish channel, #eliottwave impulse completion:

snapshot


$USD $JPY #forex
-----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
19 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDJPY stomped at bearish entrenchment; New Geo aligns w/ Predictive Model's 117.134 target:

snapshot


$USD $JPY #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+4 Reply
4x_addict 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David.. just wondering.. does the price going higher than the bearish entrancement points invalidates them? if not.. where do these points get invalidated?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4x_addict
2 years ago
Hello, 4x_addict,

The bands are probability ranges.

The structure high at 120 would invalidate any further bearish outlook.

David
+3 Reply
beamer
2 years ago
Yep. I see that divergence.
Reply
Hi David,

you are expert in Wolve Waves , could you please advise if I´m wrong ? Thanks in advance, Josep

USDJPY : Bearish Wolve Wave Pattern ?
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Realisto_FX
2 years ago
Hello @jpocalles,

Sorry for this late reply ... Still vacating.

Yes, this looks like a high-probability set-up:

1 - 1-2 Leg: Symmetrical ab = cd
2 - 2-3 Leg: Complex ZZ
3 - 3-4 Leg: Simple ZZ

Also:

5 - "Tunneling" of the 1-4 Line appears consistent throughout
6 - Point-5 might appear at a significant Fib extension relative to the 1-2 and 3-4 Legs, in the order of 1.131, 1.272, 1.313, or 1.414-Fib.

I'm looking at it thru my phone, but it definitely looks promising.

Great find!

David
+3 Reply
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