Potential Reversal To 101.493 | $JPY $USD $Nikkei #BOJ #forex

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
2143 48 15

Potential Reversal
- Condition: 115.551 failure
- Opens to:

1 - TG-Lo =104.750 - 05 JAN 2015


2 - TG-x =101.493 - 05 JAN 2015

Structural Relevance applies to latter ("TG-x =101.493 - 05 JAN 2015")

(Note that separate analysis on the UDX and USDollar             index were denounced as potential bearish reversal contenders per predictive model - See third link attached below for these analyses.)


A projection of parallels define a plausible bearish channel , whose upper projection caps the most recent bullish impulse. The overall system defines a bearish channel with multiple validation points at specific R/S levels and gaps, adding credence to these lines.

Still, a set of condition remains to be met, as defined below.


Recent rally appears to have reached a plausible 5th wave extension with internal dynamics of a completed impulse. A rallying to higher highs would cancel this proposition, but a break below 115.551 would add credence to further downside.


Predictive model has defined the targets just mentioned above. As indicated, the first nominal target calls for a low-probability attainment and high-probability reversal at 104.750. However, a worst-case scenario played out in the model comes defined as TG-x = 101.493. This latter low-probability target/very-high-probability reversal falls in line with a significant historical R/S level, as highlighted in the chart.


Standard technical pattern, predictive model and two-degree wave count point to a potential resistance at recent structural high of 121.838.

If recent support at 115.551 fails, the floor would open possibly to the predictive model's forecasts of TG-Lo = 104.750 and TG-x = 101.493.

These bearish outlook corroborate well with recent bearish forecast against the USD. For the time being, the directional bias remains set at "Neutral" based on mitigating reasons defined above.

Stay tuned,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA

Twitter: @4xForecaster
David Alcindor
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Hi David,

you are expert in Wolve Waves , could you please advise if I´m wrong ? Thanks in advance, Josep

+3 Reply
4xForecaster Realisto_FX
Hello @jpocalles,

Sorry for this late reply ... Still vacating.

Yes, this looks like a high-probability set-up:

1 - 1-2 Leg: Symmetrical ab = cd
2 - 2-3 Leg: Complex ZZ
3 - 3-4 Leg: Simple ZZ


5 - "Tunneling" of the 1-4 Line appears consistent throughout
6 - Point-5 might appear at a significant Fib extension relative to the 1-2 and 3-4 Legs, in the order of 1.131, 1.272, 1.313, or 1.414-Fib.

I'm looking at it thru my phone, but it definitely looks promising.

Great find!

+3 Reply
Yep. I see that divergence.
19 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
$USDJPY stomped at bearish entrenchment; New Geo aligns w/ Predictive Model's 117.134 target:

$USD $JPY #forex

David Alcindor
+4 Reply
4x_addict 4xForecaster
Hi David.. just wondering.. does the price going higher than the bearish entrancement points invalidates them? if not.. where do these points get invalidated?
+1 Reply
Hello, 4x_addict,

The bands are probability ranges.

The structure high at 120 would invalidate any further bearish outlook.

+3 Reply
15 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
$USDJPY: Weekly remains bearish per dominant bearish channel, #eliottwave impulse completion:

$USD $JPY #forex

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
28 APR 2015 - Update:

As per forecast, $USDJPY continues to roll from Bearish Entrenchment range and confirm the larger geometry via "Off-Set Rule completion (5' leads to Level-4 attainment). A smaller geo appears to be forming at this point, as follows:

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster 4xForecaster
CORRECTION: Point-2 of the geometry did not magnetize to the structure high - Redrawing the triangle to reflect this slight change:

Note also that, based on the "Tunneling" concept, Point-4 remains un-confirmed. So, expect a rallying of price towards that 1-4 Line, such that a relative structure high will help confirm the final residence of Point-4. In the same manner, Point-5 remains pending, and may in fact be expressed via an ectopic 5' or 5", since the real interest here is not primarily to see the completion of the geo (although use it for the "audience" to gain a visual tracking), but to confirm that the Predictive/Forecasting Model, which produce the bearish target as "TG-Lo = 117.134 this past 06 MAR 2015, gets hit, as it often does:

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
09 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
$USDJPY moved above geo; About to define 5' near Bearish Entrenchment range as forecast:

@tradingview $USD $JPY

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
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