4xForecaster

Is $DXY Rising From A New Cyclical Base | $USD $EUR $Gold #forex

INDEX:DXY   U.S. Dollar Index
2527 17 40
2 years ago
Friends,

Looking at the low-high structures of DXY             overtime, one has to wander whether the recent higher-low carved out on 04 APR 2011 represents a base for another cyclical impulsive leg to a new high.

As you may recall, last month, I offered a case in favor of a rally in the greenback (see DXY             and technical commentaries here: https://www.tradingview.com/v/ynt7DJzk/). With the benefit of time, one can see that using TradingView replay feature, price has moved in the direction of the forecast, making the target incrementally more probable, albeit still far off.

Note that the predictive/forecasting model defined the following nearer targets on the original DXY             chart linked above:

1 - TG-1 = 83.02

and

2 - TG-2 = 84.56

Although this cyclical chart lacks the statistical n-number to define a relevance, it does point to an acceptable cycle of bases-highs-lows-bases worth keeping an eye on.

Cheers,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
TradingView.com Moderator

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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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Factored into
9 months ago
Comment: 26 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / tech-Note:

This Geo heralds a "Worse Case Scenario":
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
3 months ago
Comment: 22 AUG 2016 - Chart Update:

In the LT, USDollar remains bullish. But in the most immediate timetable, 88.93 remains a probable risk:
snapshot


Best,

David Alcindor
CMT Affiliate #227974
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
28 MAY 2014 - update:

From Twitter:

"$DXY rallied as forecast since 79.24 level; now meets wall @ 80.59; expects retrcmt -
snapshot
@tradingview $USD $JPY #forex"

snapshot


Original chart at the beginning of this thread is a monthly. This weekly chart looks at a finer granulation level, pointing to a single technical obstacle at 80.59 - Note the historical relevance of this level looking at prior price action, so retracement is expected, but the directional bias remains intact and in line with monthly outlook as well.


Cheers,

David Alcindor
Reply
Muwa
2 years ago
I'm not an economic expert, but those major up years (early 80s and late 90s) seem to coincide with a strong US bull market. Given that the current US bull market is getting quite overextended aren't the chances of a major bull run in the DXY limited? Perhaps your scenario may fit into a deflationary collapse case similar to 2008 but stronger?
Reply
Muwa Muwa
2 years ago
Sorry I just noticed that you already given a good explanation over here:
#USDollar Nears Long-Term Support | $DXY $USD $XAU #XAG


Never mind my previous post. I understand your reasoning behind this scenario better now.
Reply
05 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$DXY hit high-range target; Unwinding to 78.59 likely:

snapshot


@tradingview $DXY #USDollar $USD #forex $Gold $NGUT $JNUG
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David Alcindor


======================

It has been quite a while since I posted this predictive analysis and forecasting on the $DXY. I recently posted a finer granular chart (see above) to look at a potential interim respite. Nonetheless, the predictive analysis and forecasting remains intact and in force, ever since the release of the monthly chart, which did quite well as far as taking off towards the forecast direction.

Stay tuned.


David Alcindor
Reply
10 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$DXY completed triple top at market close; Forecast target at 78.59 remains in force:

snapshot


@tradingview $USD #USDollar
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snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
15 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
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$DXY still eyeing 78.59 floor from current 91.37/90.74 forecast reversal range:

snapshot


@tradingview #USDollar $USD #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Maximum Entropy ? Periphery economies collapsing to the core. Have you considered this in your analysis ?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Sokun
2 years ago
@Sokun - Technical analysis assumes that all is discounted within the price action. The model is 100% algorithmic, based on technical analysis. Hence, the analyses and forecasts discount all events as well - David
Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Have you checked out http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.ca/?m=1 yet?
Let me know what u think.
Reply
26 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$DXY: High-probability decline to complete background geometry; Eyes 95.48 support:

snapshot


@tradingview $EUR $USD #forex



snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Lanmar PRO
a year ago
US DOLLAR STILL KING  - FOR NOW
Reply
Hi David, any update on this time frame?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
10 months ago
Hello @HamedAghajani - What timeframe are you referring to?

David
Reply
HamedAghajani PRO 4xForecaster
10 months ago
Monthly as the original analysis
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO HamedAghajani
10 months ago
@HamedAghajani - 101.32 appears to be a resistance, whereas 89.62 may offer support. A temporary decline within this range is possible.

David
+2 Reply
2use
9 months ago
I must admit the timing was so good. Did you take advantage of that at that time?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 2use
9 months ago
Hello @2use - I used it as a guidance relative to its correlated $USD Forex pairs.

David
Reply
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