4xForecaster
Short

Can A Full Basket Pop? | #USDollar $EUR $JPY $GBP $CHF $CAD $AUD

FX:USDOLLAR   Dollar Index
Traders,

As you may recall, a few days ago, I posted a DAILY chart of the USDollar             index, in which the model defined a top-most target ("TG-x") at 11474 - See this chart and analysis here:
Reversal At 11474? | #forex $EUR $JPY $GBP $CHG $AUD $CAD
.

While price did hit that target and has since weaved a near-symmetrical consolidation pattern around this forecast level, I thought it prudent to look at that level with refined data at a larger (i.e.: institutional) framework - In fact, I decided to use a composite view of the chart by applying the forecasting/predictive model over several timeframes. What ensued are TWO tight levels of probable reversal (based on the nominal nature of the target) and one outer-most value derived from the WEEKLY chart, such that:

Nominal target and outer most:

1 - TG-Hi = 11529 - 24 DEC             2014

2 - TG-Hi = 11560 - 24 DEC             2014

and

3 - TG-x = 11655 - 24 DEC             2014

The interest here is to arrive at a tight correlation between this composite and prior analysis, without having to chase             price out of bound.

As defined before, the nominal targets are named levels, such as "Hi", "Lo" and "x", defining a low-probability attainment with high-probability reversal values (i.e.: price has less of a chance to reach these levels, but if and once it does, it will not just retrace, but reverse in the Fibonacci order of a minimum of 0.618 - This is in contrast to numerical targets defining retracement levels in the Fibonacci order of 0.382 to 0.618).


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

In its technical context, one may also appreciate the ascent of price within a well-defined bullish channel . This channel, as any other, has buffer zone: A hard outer shell, and a softer margin, defined in the chart by fainter lines.

As price rose to the current TG-Hi = 11560 level, one may also appreciate that:

1 - The price bar closed right at that TG-Hi value of 11560

and

2 - Price closed right at the buffer line.

Note that the hard outer shell has only a single point to account for its existence, and that it is drawn out of the total symmetry of the channel. In contrast, the inner buffer line is born out of three validation points. For this reason, this buffer line carry more authoritative power against price advance than any other line.


PATTERN ANALYSIS:

A Bearish Butterfly outlined in the chart offers an added technical support, which may also very well play towards a market consensus against further advance. The residence of Point-5 is unusual, but Fibonacci based, considering its 1.786-Fib mark-up relative to Points XA.


OVERALL:

if indeed price were to roll from here, look for a significant support at a level corresponding to Point-3 of the L/T impulse. This happens to fall in line with a modular core-symmetry highlighted in the chart.

Failure of this level would thus open the floor to 10323. However, a 9773 would also be offering an ultimate support per predictive model.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter: @4xForecaster
-----
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
26 DEC 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$DXY faces significant resistance @ 90.74/91.37 range and 0.618 #fibonacci reversal risk:

snapshot


@tradingview $USD #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
NOTE:

Here is the most recent predictive analysis/forecasting on the DXY ... At the time when the DXY was at its most bearish stance, model offered a bullish reversal with bullish forecast against a less-probable shallow decline ... Hit all targets:


#USDollar Nears Long-Term Support | $DXY $USD $XAU #XAG



Time for this index to unwind to the downside.


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
#USDollar Nears Long-Term Support | $DXY $USD $XAU #XAG
+1 Reply
Sokun 4xForecaster
Do the periphery economies crumbling have an effect of pushing to higher levels for the Dixy?
Reply
Sokun Sokun
The USD technical breakout a couple of weeks ago ignited what Soros defines as a virtuous cycle in his theory of reflexivity. It's a feedback loop that takes systems to maximum entropy.
Reply
30 DEC 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$USDOLLAR remains engulfe within 11580/11499 prior range; Bearish target in force:

snapshot


@tradingview | $USD $DXY #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
Thanks for sharing David, very good motivation for my sell usd trades.
Reply
Recluse82 4xForecaster
11660
Reply
05 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$USDOLLAR hit extreme-bullish target at 11655; Technical unwinding to 11027 likely:

snapshot


@tradingview $DXY $USD #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor


====================

As indicated in the $DXY chart (monthly and lower frame analyses), the technicals are calling for a temporary unwinding to the downside.

Stay tuned.


David
Reply
10 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
#USDOLLAR closed the week at lowest tier following tip-toe of inner margin; Watch $USD crosses:

snapshot


@tradingview $DXY
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
15 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
#USDOLLAR carves out lower low as forecast; Bearish Outlook

snapshot


@tradingview $USD $JPY $EUR $CAD $GBP $AUD $CHF #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
Recluse82 4xForecaster
hi david, whats your opinion now, its broke out from the range again
+1 Reply
Hello @lovasz.levente - Price has not broken out of the defined range yet. The outer border of the bullish channel remains untouched as of yet:

snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
Recluse82 4xForecaster
as far as i see now its touched
+1 Reply
@lovasz.levente - Yes, thank you. Just posted an update.

David
Reply
22 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$USDOLLAR too high? Watch out for its L/T bullish channel outer boundary:

snapshot


@tradingview $USD $DXY $EUR $JPY #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
22 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
$USDOLLAR validated outermost boundary of bullish channel; #FED worries: "Too high?"

snapshot


@tradingview $DXY #USDollar
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
Recluse82 4xForecaster
now broke out
Reply
23 JAN 2015 - Quick Note:

Watch for 11,870 for potential bearish entrenchment as price gasps above its multi-year resistance level:

snapshot


David Alcindor
Reply
27 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
#USDOLLAR readies to fold after gasp above channel?

snapshot


via @tradingview $DXY $USD $Gold $EUR $ES $NQ $DJIA
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
27 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
#USDOLLAR reverts back into channel range; Bearish:

snapshot


via @tradingview $DXY $USD $Gold $EUR $JPY $GBP $CHF #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
29 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
#USDOLLAR stomped? Model calls bearish outlook; May rise up to 11851:

snapshot


@tradingview $DXY $USD #forex $EUR $JPY
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
29 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
#USDOLLAR passed 0.618 #fibonacci; Now at 0.786-Fib; Eyes 11851; Weakening:

snapshot


@tradingview $DXY $USDX $USD #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
Recluse82 4xForecaster
david, is this a new scenario? what about the old targets (11000,10300...)? no longer valid?
+1 Reply
Hello @lovasz.levente,

This is NOT a new scenario - We are only looking at a maximal adverse excursion (i.e.: the maximal tolerable extent to which we are willing to see price depart away from the forecast direction. The forecast direction is and remains down, but the market has to stretch its legs, and we just want to make sure we don't get kicked in the process).

While the WEEKLY chart remains the reference of interest, as follows ...
snapshot


..., we are simply taking a "close-up" look at the smallest allowable timeframe so that the predictive model can apply a relatively comparable estimate of price action between the two frames (extreme targets can be different between the two resolutions, but we are using the finer grain level to look at what is going on as we defend our top-most structure). So, nothing new here, just price crawling on up to clean the house of weak hands.

Here is price climbing on up again as per forecast (arrow):
snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
30 JAN 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
#USDOLLAR hit TG-Hi as forecast, receded from forewarn 11870; Favors decline:

snapshot


@tradingview $USDX $DXY $USD $EUR
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Recluse82 4xForecaster
maybe cup and handle forming now?
Reply
02 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
#USDOLLAR recedes from outer-most target; Carves out lower lows; Bearish targets probable:

snapshot


@tradingview $DXY $USD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
Recluse82 4xForecaster
made new high. neverending story
Reply
03 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
#USDOLLAR eyes a retest/rally into Point-5 or 5' before possible decline to bear targets:

snapshot


@tradingview $DXY $USD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
Recluse82 4xForecaster
david, it is getting nice :)
Reply
03 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
#USDOLLAR rolls from WW's Pt-5; Bearish targets remain in force as forecast:

snapshot


@tradingview $DXY $USD $EUR #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
04 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
#USDOLLAR consolidates with cap defined at 11820 - Further; Bearish targets intact:

snapshot


@tradingview $DXY $USD $EUR
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
04 FEW 2015 - Update:

From Twitter:
----------
#USDOLLAR was held back at 11825 as forecast; Remains bearish and prep'ed for targets:

snapshot


@tradingview $DXY $USD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
5 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
#USDOLLAR keep rolling as forecast; Stomped at 11746/754 structure; Eyes bearish targets:

snapshot


@tradingview $DXY $USD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
06 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
#USDOLLAR - Limited upside from current 11746 floor:

snapshot


via @tradingview $DXY $USD #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
Recluse82 4xForecaster
bull flag breakout on h1
Reply
12 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$USDOLLAR reached WW's TP Line, blunting further bearish prospect for now:

snapshot


@tradingview $USD $EUR $JPY $GBP #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
12 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
$USDOLLAR - Break > 11867 would invalidate bearish targets:

snapshot


@tradingview $DXY $USD $EUR $JPY $GBP #forex #USDollar
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
NOTE: This H4 chart resets the perspective of this index within a larger temporal context.

See how the momental line has been breached, and the recent attempts at higher-highs have achieved a substantial widening pattern (not shown) which might possibly weave the beginning of a diamond-top, a well-known heralding feature of a topping activity (not yet formed, but worth keeping in mind).

David
+1 Reply
18 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/Linked-In:
----------
#USDOLLAR carves lower-lows along 1-4; Break of WW's Pt-2 opens floor to bearish targets:

snapshot


@tradingview $DXY $USD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
27 FEB 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDOLLAR - 11867 remains a probable cap to a rally as price nears a bearish trench:

snapshot


@tradingview $DXY $USD $EUR
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
Recluse82 4xForecaster
it broke up from the consolidation triangle, new high is expected, wave 5 just started
+1 Reply
Can't see what you are talking about - Post chart, please - David
Reply
Recluse82 4xForecaster
i don't have a chart David, but there is a similar scenario what i meant:
USD at 12050 Top


I think one more push is needed upside to complete the wave 5 of 5. now the price was in consolidation mode in 5 of 4.

what do u think?
Reply
In it seeing what you are saying.

This is TradingView. Bring up a chart to illustrate what you mean.

Thank you.

D.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
I'm not seeing what you are saying
Reply
04 MAR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
#USDOLLAR: Reaction from WW's1-4 Line will test bearish entrenchment; Bears still prevail:

snapshot


@tradingview $USD $DXY
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
David, per Ashraf Laidi...See the mirror image?

snapshot
Reply
Hi Ivan, I didn't Catch Ashraf's last Webinar, what is the mirror image?
Reply
IvanLabrie PRO HamedAghajani
You can see it's moving in a clear inverse correlation of a pretty high degree.
Except for that spike under the wolfe waves 1-3-5 trendline (which I think is broker generated to run stops...), price action is really close.
+1 Reply
Hello @IvanLabrie,

The dollar/gold inverse relationship is not new. In fact, it is perhaps the most widely known and accepted "physical law' in Forex. Not sure what Ashraf has added to this knowledge, except perhaps to remind junior traders of this fact.

If you plot the $XAUUSD against the Usdollar, you will see that this inverse correlation is nothing new and expected like an apple falling off a tree.

Here is an educational link that offers more insight and historical lesson on this:
- http://www.kitco.com/ind/Fraser/2013-11-11-How-the-Price-of-Gold-Reflects-the-Value-of-the-US-Dollar.html

David
+3 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
Definitely...I'm reading his book, pretty good read. I wasn't all that informed regarding fundamentals before, so definitely worthwhile.
Thanks for the link!
Reply
Recluse82 4xForecaster
david, where is your invalidation price?
Reply
Recluse82 Recluse82
entrenchment is failed now
+1 Reply
Most importantly is what it means:

The bears failed to fend the bulls off.

David
+2 Reply
05 MAR 2015 - Tech-Note:

This AWW is worth heeding:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
Excellent!
Reply
Recluse82 4xForecaster
what is AWW David, whats the difference? thx
+1 Reply
Hell @lovasz.levente - AWW is something I came up with, which looks at the WW from a distorted geometry.

In essence, the WW has to have converging lines, both pointing up or down. In the AWW, I am only focusing on the 1-3 Line and its point-5 validation, with giving much regard to the 2-4 Line - Google AWW + 4xforecaster + tradingview to find more explanation on this unusual pattern.

David Alcindor

However, last month or so, I posted a long explanation on Rules Of Engagement ("ROE") regarding the AWW, and how to treat the relative positions of the 2-4 Line relative to its 1-3, in order to define the best target -
+2 Reply
28 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDOLLAR expected to revisit Point-4 level of smaller geometry; Larger remains nascent:

snapshot


$USD #euro #usdollar $DXY
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
13 MAY 2015 - Update:

Following is an adjustment of the Geo, based on the most recent plots:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+3 Reply
14 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
#USDOLLAR: Predictive Model signals upside reversal; Background Geo. offers varying probability levels:

snapshot


$USD #euro
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
15 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDOLLAR rallies as forecast; Eyeing 11884/1189 range as high-probable attainment, 1-4 Line probable target:

snapshot


$USD
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
19 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$USDOLLAR rallies as forecast; Bears await at 11884/11899 range:

snapshot


$EUR $USD $JPY $GBP $CAD $CHF $XAU #forex
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
02 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$DXY completed Geo cycle; Revrsd at preset 12044; Bears readying < 11884 range:

snapshot


#usdollar $USD #euro #gold $XAU
----------


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
France
Italia
Polska
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
Indonesia
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out