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Can A Full Basket Pop? | #USDollar $EUR $JPY $GBP $CHF $CAD $AUD

FX:USDOLLAR   Dollar Index
Traders,

As you may recall, a few days ago, I posted a DAILY chart of the USDollar             index, in which the model defined a top-most target ("TG-x") at 11474 - See this chart and analysis here:
Reversal At 11474? | #forex $EUR $JPY $GBP $CHG $AUD $CAD
.

While price did hit that target and has since weaved a near-symmetrical consolidation pattern around this forecast level, I thought it prudent to look at that level with refined data at a larger (i.e.: institutional) framework - In fact, I decided to use a composite view of the chart by applying the forecasting/predictive model over several timeframes. What ensued are TWO tight levels of probable reversal (based on the nominal nature of the target) and one outer-most value derived from the WEEKLY chart, such that:

Nominal target and outer most:

1 - TG-Hi = 11529 - 24 DEC             2014

2 - TG-Hi = 11560 - 24 DEC             2014

and

3 - TG-x = 11655 - 24 DEC             2014

The interest here is to arrive at a tight correlation between this composite and prior analysis, without having to chase price out of bound.

As defined before, the nominal targets are named levels, such as "Hi", "Lo" and "x", defining a low-probability attainment with high-probability reversal values (i.e.: price has less of a chance to reach these levels, but if and once it does, it will not just retrace, but reverse in the Fibonacci order of a minimum of 0.618 - This is in contrast to numerical targets defining retracement levels in the Fibonacci order of 0.382 to 0.618).


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

In its technical context, one may also appreciate the ascent of price within a well-defined bullish channel . This channel, as any other, has buffer zone: A hard outer shell, and a softer margin, defined in the chart by fainter lines.

As price rose to the current TG-Hi = 11560 level, one may also appreciate that:

1 - The price bar closed right at that TG-Hi value of 11560

and

2 - Price closed right at the buffer line.

Note that the hard outer shell has only a single point to account for its existence, and that it is drawn out of the total symmetry of the channel. In contrast, the inner buffer line is born out of three validation points. For this reason, this buffer line carry more authoritative power against price advance than any other line.


PATTERN ANALYSIS:

A Bearish Butterfly outlined in the chart offers an added technical support, which may also very well play towards a market consensus against further advance. The residence of Point-5 is unusual, but Fibonacci based, considering its 1.786-Fib mark-up relative to Points XA.


OVERALL:

if indeed price were to roll from here, look for a significant support at a level corresponding to Point-3 of the L/T impulse. This happens to fall in line with a modular core-symmetry highlighted in the chart.

Failure of this level would thus open the floor to 10323. However, a 9773 would also be offering an ultimate support per predictive model.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA


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Twitter: @4xForecaster
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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
02 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$DXY completed Geo cycle; Revrsd at preset 12044; Bears readying < 11884 range:

snapshot


#usdollar $USD #euro #gold $XAU
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
19 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$USDOLLAR rallies as forecast; Bears await at 11884/11899 range:

snapshot


$EUR $USD $JPY $GBP $CAD $CHF $XAU #forex
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
15 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$USDOLLAR rallies as forecast; Eyeing 11884/1189 range as high-probable attainment, 1-4 Line probable target:

snapshot


$USD
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
14 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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#USDOLLAR: Predictive Model signals upside reversal; Background Geo. offers varying probability levels:

snapshot


$USD #euro
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
13 MAY 2015 - Update:

Following is an adjustment of the Geo, based on the most recent plots:


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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
28 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$USDOLLAR expected to revisit Point-4 level of smaller geometry; Larger remains nascent:

snapshot


$USD #euro #usdollar $DXY
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snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
05 MAR 2015 - Tech-Note:

This AWW is worth heeding:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
Excellent!
Reply
Recluse82 4xForecaster
what is AWW David, whats the difference? thx
+1 Reply
Hell @lovasz.levente - AWW is something I came up with, which looks at the WW from a distorted geometry.

In essence, the WW has to have converging lines, both pointing up or down. In the AWW, I am only focusing on the 1-3 Line and its point-5 validation, with giving much regard to the 2-4 Line - Google AWW + 4xforecaster + tradingview to find more explanation on this unusual pattern.

David Alcindor

However, last month or so, I posted a long explanation on Rules Of Engagement ("ROE") regarding the AWW, and how to treat the relative positions of the 2-4 Line relative to its 1-3, in order to define the best target -
+2 Reply
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