US dollar at top of consolidation against Japanese yen
The US dollar has been stymied at the ¥107 level again, as traders have been chasing stock performance. Remember, this pair tends to move right along with the risk appetite of equities traders, specifically the S&P 500. As the S&P 500 looks like it’s trying to break out, we could get a substantial move, but it’s not until we clear the last couple of highs that one can trust the breakout.
That would mean clearing the high from the Thursday session, and of course the Friday session which was slightly lower. Friday’s candle was a bit undecided after the jobs figure, so at this point this will simply be a risk barometer. If there’s more of a “risk on” feel to the world, this pair should go looking towards the ¥108 level. After that, the 200 day moving average would come into focus. Alternately, on a pullback from here we would go looking towards the ¥106 level, and then the massive support barrier underneath at the ¥105 level.
If one’s coins, they can make out a bit of a “W pattern”, but it is a bit early to call that. One thing is for sure, we will see a lot of volatility as traders come back from holiday, which should increase volume right along with a bit of directionality. This is probably setting up to be one of the bigger moves this fall, but in the short term we have these few levels to pay attention to. That being said, if we can break down below the lows from a couple of weeks ago, this market is likely to go to the ¥102.50 level, followed by the ¥100 level which will attract a lot of attention from the Bank of Japan. It certainly seems as if it’s a bit easier to fall than rise from here but we need to watch both sides of the coin.
That would mean clearing the high from the Thursday session, and of course the Friday session which was slightly lower. Friday’s candle was a bit undecided after the jobs figure, so at this point this will simply be a risk barometer. If there’s more of a “risk on” feel to the world, this pair should go looking towards the ¥108 level. After that, the 200 day moving average would come into focus. Alternately, on a pullback from here we would go looking towards the ¥106 level, and then the massive support barrier underneath at the ¥105 level.
If one’s coins, they can make out a bit of a “W pattern”, but it is a bit early to call that. One thing is for sure, we will see a lot of volatility as traders come back from holiday, which should increase volume right along with a bit of directionality. This is probably setting up to be one of the bigger moves this fall, but in the short term we have these few levels to pay attention to. That being said, if we can break down below the lows from a couple of weeks ago, this market is likely to go to the ¥102.50 level, followed by the ¥100 level which will attract a lot of attention from the Bank of Japan. It certainly seems as if it’s a bit easier to fall than rise from here but we need to watch both sides of the coin.