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With recent expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and growing anticipation of the Bank of Japan ending its negative interest rate policy, market expectations are leaning towards a rate hike by the BOJ as early as next week or by April at the latest. This would mark Japan's first rate hike since 2007. While the Fed's rate cuts imply weakness for the dollar, a rate hike by the BOJ suggests strength for the yen, leading to sharper movements in USDJPY. Given the major issues this week and next, it's important to pay attention as these developments could even lead to a trend reversal.
- March 12: US February Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be announced.
- March 14: US February Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) will be announced.
- March 19: Japan's interest rate decision will be announced.
- March 21: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled.
While the USDJPY chart shows an upward trend, there's been significant downward pressure as it struggles to break through major resistance. Although the current price level could find support in the trendline, considering the current issues, a rebound seems unlikely. It's highly probable that we may see a low around the 144 line. If it breaks below this and reaches 139, it would signal a shift from the upward trend of the past year to a downward one.
Possible scenarios we can anticipate:
1. Finding support around 144 and rallying towards 152 for medium to long-term growth.
2. A short-term rebound from the current range towards 152.
3. Breaking below 144 and reaching 139 for medium to long-term decline.
Given the multitude of issues this week, it's crucial to consider various factors. We'll adjust our strategy accordingly if the market movements deviate from our expectations.
Please share your personal opinions in the comments. We kindly ask for your support and subscriptions.
With recent expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and growing anticipation of the Bank of Japan ending its negative interest rate policy, market expectations are leaning towards a rate hike by the BOJ as early as next week or by April at the latest. This would mark Japan's first rate hike since 2007. While the Fed's rate cuts imply weakness for the dollar, a rate hike by the BOJ suggests strength for the yen, leading to sharper movements in USDJPY. Given the major issues this week and next, it's important to pay attention as these developments could even lead to a trend reversal.
- March 12: US February Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be announced.
- March 14: US February Retail Sales and Producer Price Index (PPI) will be announced.
- March 19: Japan's interest rate decision will be announced.
- March 21: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled.
While the USDJPY chart shows an upward trend, there's been significant downward pressure as it struggles to break through major resistance. Although the current price level could find support in the trendline, considering the current issues, a rebound seems unlikely. It's highly probable that we may see a low around the 144 line. If it breaks below this and reaches 139, it would signal a shift from the upward trend of the past year to a downward one.
Possible scenarios we can anticipate:
1. Finding support around 144 and rallying towards 152 for medium to long-term growth.
2. A short-term rebound from the current range towards 152.
3. Breaking below 144 and reaching 139 for medium to long-term decline.
Given the multitude of issues this week, it's crucial to consider various factors. We'll adjust our strategy accordingly if the market movements deviate from our expectations.