Johanes

JLS: USDJPY Target Zone & Carry Trading Activity

Long
FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
The estimated USDJPY target zone is 107.00-112.00-117.00 based on FRB of New York's model of measurement in compliance to Plaza, Louvre & EMS policies.

The current on-going carry trading activity (2nd tranche) drives the prices of USDJPY , NZDJPY , AUDJPY , CADJPY , GBPJPY and EURJPY to their upper bands/ceilings. Their impact on the prices of NZDUSD , AUDUSD , CADUSD , GBPUSD and EURUSD interior their target zones are the most important to anticipate and mitigate the risk of trading on major currency pairs interior their target zones.

The largest impact recorded during the unwinding trading activity and result "deep price drop and prices crashes" advocated by the NBER and "carry trading and currency crushes" by the CEPR. At such, the assessment and the measurement on the taget zones of the carry trading currency (CHF, JPY and now EUR) are the most important to anticipate and mitigate the risk on the prices of major currency pairs ( NZDUSD , AUDUSD , USDCAD and GBPUSD ) interior their target zones.

Comments

i followed you long time, i like your analysis model very much, it can guide my analysis, and thanks for you sharing...best wishes...
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@YIQI, i thank you and if it is useful please share with your friends and colleagues
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