Kumowizard
Short

Impressive bullish swing may exhaust at Bearish support

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
412 4 17
As I expected, market has made a quick and impressive swing up from the 100+ key resistance. But we must keep in mind the big picture is bearish! As I wrote in my moning post on Twitter, USDJPY             counter bullish price action may top out between 106-107. We have to be ready to short it again in case.

Weekly:
- Trend and Ichimoku setup is bearish
- Heikin-Ashi is counter bullish , but the move from the lows was so impressive and strong, that haDelta quickly hit quite an extree high from an extreme low print. Either it is too much, or we will see a lot stronger buying in coming weeks towards 110-112. (For now I think it is too much, will explain below)
- Price got back to the steeper bearish trendline, which is our first bearish support.
- EWO is still very bearish
- MACD is trying to cross up, not sure yet if it will happen.

Daily:
- Ichimoku is neutral
- Price is back to a stronger bearish support zone 106,30-107,40, where we have: bearish trendline, spot Kumo, 100wma, and previous reaction low, which makes a horizontal supp/res now.
- Heikin-Ashi has been counter bullish since 11/July, but now we have warning signals of momentum loss! haDelta has been below its SMA3 for few days, which means candle bodies are shrinking. Today candle can be really small with a lower high. It looks like market can't go lot higher from here, unless something extra happens and gives a momentum boost to break bearish supports.
- EWO is mild green, but for now I consider it still as rather neutral.

4H:
- Ichimoku is still bullish here, but
- EWO and haDelta has built quite some bearish divergence!
- Price action seems to be forming a bearish wedge. If market can not deliver a decisive higher high with candle close, then the wedge will break on its lower side.

If you still have long position, it is time to lighten up, book profit and maybe look for a sell signal.

Note: don't forget, this pair is still one of the most volatiles! Adjust your position size accordingly.
PolarSolar PRO
4 months ago
I prefer wait a second implulse from Kimo on H4
Reply
Kumowizard PRO PolarSolar
4 months ago
agree. no rush. not the level of the entry what matters, but the probability of the trade!