JLS Trade: Long USDJPY, CADJPY, NZDJPY, AUDJPY and EURJPY

JPY is resuming to carry the USD, CAD, NZD, AUD and EUR as indicated by the USDJPY to be hold at 110.74 (110.50 baseline). Those pairs are expected to move to upward interior their current exchange rate target zone for an estimated 500-700 PIPs balance of target zones to upper ceiling (USDJPY 117.00 baseline). The 500-700 PIPs balance of target will be traded by multiple tranches of their interdays for 50-100-200 PIPs until the upper ceilings to be reached. This allow for capital accumulation interior the balance of target zones.

The GBPJPY however is still expected to be corrected by EUR and CHF and the long on GBPJPY will be re-entered later.

At the same time, short on EURCAD, EURNZD and EURAUD already placed.

Comment:

The Bank of Japan left its key short-term interest rate unchanged at -0.1 percent at its January meeting and kept the target for the 10-year government bond yield at around zero percent. At the same time, the central bank revised down inflation forecast for fiscal 2019 to average 1.1 percent from an earlier projection of 1.6 percent, mainly due to a decline in crude oil prices and worries over global economic outlook.

In a quarterly outlook report, the BoJ also lowered slightly the inflation forecast for fiscal 2018 to average 0.8 percent from 0.9 percent previously estimated. In addition, policymakers now expects inflation to average 1.5 percent for fiscal 2020 from an earlier estimate of 1.6 percent. Regarding GDP growth, the central bank expects the economy to have grown by 0.9 percent in fiscal 2018, less than a 1.4 percent expansion previously estimated. For fiscal 2019, the GDP is estimated to grow by 0.9 percent, slightly faster than a 0.8 percent expansion in an earlier projection. In fiscal 2020, the GDP is expected to advance 1 percent, stronger than a 0.8 percent growth previously estimated.

With regard to the amount of JGBs to be purchased, the bank will conduct buying at more or less the current pace -- an annual pace of increase of about 80 trillion yen.

The BoJ also determined by an unanimous vote to purchase exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) so that their amounts outstanding will increase at an annual paces of about JPY 6.0 trillion and about JPY 90 billion, respectively. With a view to lowering risk premia of asset prices in an appropriate manner, the bank may increase or decrease the amount of purchases depending on market conditions. As for CP and corporate bonds, the bank will maintain their amounts outstanding at about 2.2 trillion yen and about 3.2 trillion yen, respectively.