Sforex
Long

USDJPY next week:Potential breakout in Nikkei225:

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
354 4 1
This week, we have BOJ Meeting. I think they will keep unchanged current monetary policy . April is the time of tax rate hike. BOJ needs to consider the reaction of consumer spending of Japanese toward tax hike before giving more stimulus as expectation of investors.
There are two possibilities:
- If Japanese consumers react negatively, they reduce spending, and U/J would fall down as a result, but it also increases the expectation of further stimulus from BOJ : U/J would be up despite of negative spending.
- If Japanese consumers react positive, they don’t reduce spending, and accept tax hike. The result would be : Nikkei 225             would react very positive, and transfer to U/J . U/J is up as a result.
In both cases, the bias of USDJPY             still be bullish .
Look at on the chart, Nikkei225 chart. I show a key trend line. If Nikkei225 breaks this trend lines, this is the time to LONG USDJPY             . Thus, to trade USDJPY             this week, please be patient, wait until Nikkei 225             officially cross the trend lines, and focus the reaction of Japanese consumer reaction.

Good Luck.
isomorph
2 years ago
ok except that to assess the japanese consumer's reaction will take not just a couple of weeks, but months.
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Sforex PRO isomorph
2 years ago
Market always provide some good leading indicators to predict the consumer sentiment + confidence.

We have three such indicators this week:

- Leading Economic Index on Monday
- coincident Index on Monday
- BOJ Monthly Economic Survey on Wednesday

Thus, check it to predict future trend.

Economic data is not useless.
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isomorph Sforex
2 years ago
economic data maybe not useless if one position trades. but for an intraday scalper like me, it is utterly useless since i take the turns up and down as the market gyrates on economic news. news is out and it goes down, then am short. when the drop stops and it retraces, then am long, and vice-versa (of course, am generalizing since this is not clear cut on all pairs, but you get the idea, but there is a method to the madness.) so i couldn't care less what the news says since the traders positioning according to the news will clearly contribute to key emerging patterns in the market reflecting that positioning. all one has to do then is act accordingly. simple but challenging because subtle.
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Sforex PRO isomorph
2 years ago
Basicly, to intraday traders, they could ignore economic data, but it's appropriate when there is no data is released, if in a day has a lot of economic data, no intraday traders dare to open position.


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