USDJPY - when comes the pop ?

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
ok , it's a long shot, in terms of time frame and position that is ...

At the moment every big exporting country or regions basically is enganged in the "currency race to the bottom", weaker EUR, weaker USD... with worldwide interest rates around zero no wonder...

So, fundamentally, Japan is not different and this strong Yen hurts Japanese exports and a BOJ intervention could be just around the corner... hence I would rather be long than short anyway.

From the pure technical side everyone and his dog knows the major downtrend and the obvious trendlines . But for me there are several warning points of an upcoming reveral:
1) the very recent downmove since July is forming a falling wedge accompanied with a positive divergence.
2) DMI is very low and obviously does not reflect a trend, but that can change quickly
3) it appears this pair is also forming a potential reverse Head&Shoulder , and this is the long shot...

First things first, a break out of this falling wedge gives room to the upside with first target at the major (pink) downtrendline. But this short term wedge breakout will most likely trigger plenty of stops and as soon as the major trendline comes in place there will be also the 80-handle and likely more stops. So, any movement will probably sharply higher.

Then, after some consolidation, the market will focus on this potential reverse Head&Shoulder, where the neckline comes in place around 82 handle... if this makes room, we all know where that rocket will shoot off to : 90 handle +

Long shot, but nothing for day/week traders...


medium-long term view still bullish, but this is also a trading position and it looks very much overbought here now. I go flat and take the rest longs out.. waiting for a pull back to go long again. Nice trade ;-)
to be honest the recent move is almost a little too fast for my taste. But we broke my neckline and the gates for further advances are open. I expect here a setback, perhaps retesting the trendline . I 'll take off 50% here at 83.95 (18/dec) and leave the rest with a S/L at 82.50
well well... 81.60 was todays high, so my first objective has been reached (ok, within a mere 5pips).

Despite being overbought on the S-T picture the momentum is clearly to the upside .. I will not take immediate profit, but raise my S/L to 79.75 (19/Nov)
actually as expected...the first attempt of a potential larger rally lasted only until the red colored major resistance trendline, RSI was at 75 and ADX near 40...market is now pulling back, hopefully to load on more energy for the second attempt...