USDJPY - What is the prevailing underlying trend?
Anyone spotting an uncanny resemblance between this set of waves and 1995/2000's? After a strong bullish cycle between 1995 and 1998 following the Kobe earthquake, UJ corrected in a ABC fashion. B wave was completed in preparation to the 1999 FED tightening cycle. Today? 2012-2015 1-2-3-4-5, A completed amidst poor market sentiment in 2016 and B (very quickly) in play in preparation to the second FED hike in 10 years. Next? 120 or 100?
My sense is that an underlying LT bearish momentum will prevail. If you forget for one second the complete madness of daily charts and exuberance, the 1W slower moving average set up paints a different picture: 50w MA just crossed 100w and 200w to the downside, and the 114.9 level that is working pretty well as a resistance happens to be around the current 100w MA (exactly like back in 1999).
This does not mean that there is no potential for a shoot up to 116 in the short term, but I would be conscious about entering long positions here.
My sense is that an underlying LT bearish momentum will prevail. If you forget for one second the complete madness of daily charts and exuberance, the 1W slower moving average set up paints a different picture: 50w MA just crossed 100w and 200w to the downside, and the 114.9 level that is working pretty well as a resistance happens to be around the current 100w MA (exactly like back in 1999).
This does not mean that there is no potential for a shoot up to 116 in the short term, but I would be conscious about entering long positions here.