Sandeep_Gupta
Short

Selling C wave as well as double top

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
Sell near 109.260.
EWS PRO
2 years ago
Hi Sandeep_Gupta,

I think you have made a small error, I think you have mis-placed wave 3. If you look at the MACD-Indicator it didn't peak before 109.46, which indicates that this was wave and that means you have only seen wave 3 at 110.09 and the ongoing correction is wave 4 and then you still need wave 5 higher towards at least 111.38.

So selling at 109.26 could be a very risky strategy, if you don't make sure to be out near 108 if a flat is unfolding as wave 4, but you risk that wave 5 higher already has started and then you will be sitting on a loss.
Reply
onali.ismail EWS
2 years ago
Hi, very interesting. I've been looking at this too. Do you rely on the built in Elliot Wave indicator? It calls wave 3 110.096 like you pointed out.
Reply
Sandeep_Gupta onali.ismail
2 years ago
I count manually and try that my count fit according to the rules and guide lines given by the classical Elliott Wave theory.
+1 Reply
EWS PRO onali.ismail
2 years ago
Hi Onali Ismail,

No I don't rely on the built in Elliott Wave indicator.

If use the extension calculation you will find, that wave iii at 110.09, would have been 423.6% the length of wave i (the distance from 101.09 to 103.09) when you make this calculation you will get wave iii at 110.01 and again it fits the MACD divergence perfectly.

Reply
Sandeep_Gupta
2 years ago
Can you please give the chart with your numbering, I will certainly improve upon it? As far I understand the numbering is according to the laws given by Mr.Elliott. Thanks.
Reply
dojitrader
2 years ago
You have an excellent count, to my eyes !!!!!
So ---- I submit for your comment and criticism an alternate count I've been
working on since I realized that I missed the ending diagonal (not very pretty) in
the proposed 5 of 3, last week ~~~~ RATS ! it would have paid handsomely !I
{{ED's are my favorite pattern - just hate to miss one}}
I wish I could claim all of this labeling as my own, alas, I was not sure of the
proposed triangle until I saw another count this morning. Your Idea for a flat
is also a BIG possibility: if not a triangle, however a triangle would give a lot of
confirmation to the terminal nature of this count with the proposed 2nd wave
on the larger daily and weekly degree which everyone is looking for, finally at hand.
Anyway, this alternate count, seems to me at least, solves the 2 questions I had
with regard to the 3rd wave almost parabolic move along with the ED ~~~
how could I have missed it ~~~~
Pips to us ALL !!!!!
AND have a great week of trades ~~~ !!!!!!
snapshot
Reply
EWS PRO dojitrader
2 years ago
My count is the same as yours Dojitrader, count. I don't yet know whether it will be a flat or a triangle as you suggest, This is exactly the way I would count it and it fits the MACD-indicator perfectly to this count. I agree with your reflection about the triangle wave 4 would confirm the final rally higher in wave 5 and then back down to 108.00

All the best to you.
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renato.tranchesi dojitrader
2 years ago
I am kind of new on Elliot Wave Analisys, but isn't Wave 2 retracing more than 100% of Wave 1 in this counting?
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EWS PRO renato.tranchesi
2 years ago
Hi Renato Tranchesi,

No, it is just because Dojitrader has cut his chart a little short, that it looks like wave 2 retraces more than 100%. Wave 1 starts at 101.057, while wave 2 terminates at 101.071, so the The Elliott Wave Rule, that wave 2 can not break the origin of wave 1 is applied in this case.

I have attached my 4-hourly count and added some comments to the MACD-Indicator. I like this indicator in combination with the RSI (not shown on the chart), but you can use many other indicators that will give you the same kind of information.

I have not shown it on the MACD, but the last low to -0.20 show a positive reversal signal (new low on the indicator not seen in the price-chart. This is typical wave four behavior. So I think we will see a flat wave (iv) followed by wave (v) higher to 111.33 and this will end wave 3 and then a new correction in wave 4 followed by a new high to 113.20 before a more firm top is in place here.

Selling C wave as well as double top
Reply
IvanLabrie TOP EWS
2 years ago
Sandeep count gave him good results, if we can spot the corrective patterns as they unfold and trade accordingly we can make money even if the count wasn't 100% spot on. I agree with higher highs after this flat correction is ended, but it will take a while.
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EWS PRO dojitrader
2 years ago
I'm sorry, but the chart above under my commentary is Sandeep_Gupta's I have made a post with my chart under my name.
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Sandeep_Gupta
2 years ago
Thanks dojitrader sir for alternative count and view.
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Sandeep_Gupta
2 years ago
The target is hit.
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dojitrader Sandeep_Gupta
2 years ago
Congrats !!!!! for the good profits ~~~~~
The triangle idea died on the 8th BUT, since then
I have no idea what to think of price action since.
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IvanLabrie TOP dojitrader
2 years ago
Corrective flat under way, then a lot of sideways noise :p Sandeep is great at EW, he should answer. I'm still shorting this pair, but wouldn't dare to make an EW analysis of the price action.
Reply
EWS PRO IvanLabrie
2 years ago
Good job Sandeep and congrats!

I'm sorry if you or other got me wrong. My post was just my opinion on the EW count and the flat has worked out well. I'm still looking for a rally soon, but you target towards 106.68 can't be ruled out, so using trailing stops is a good solution to Lock in profits when prices starts to move higher again.
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Sandeep_Gupta EWS
2 years ago
No need to be sorry bro, this is trading and every thing is possible, I took you opinions with open mind. Welcome.
+1 Reply
Sandeep_Gupta
2 years ago
You can hold it for a further target of 106.64 with trailing stop loss. The next target can be 105.73.
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IvanLabrie TOP Sandeep_Gupta
2 years ago
I'm holding, covered some at 107.67, now running for 106.2 :)
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tompower IvanLabrie
2 years ago
was too volatile for me, but it looks like you made a great call
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Timing is key
2 years ago
Well done Sandeep!
Reply
Sandeep_Gupta Timing is key
2 years ago
Thanks
Reply
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