Johanes

JLS: FX Prices are Turning into New FX Price Trends (Watch-Out)

OANDA:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
Time series currency band is confirming for CHF carry traders out of the market, but time series interest rate differential-based currency band is still confirming that JPY is continuing the carry trading activity. Further, JPY is carrying both EUR and CHF by driving EURJPY to upward as per their interest rate differential price trend and to drive the CHFJPY to upward against their interest rate differential price trend.

The time series currency band is indicating for CHF-pegged pairs to be under pressure to downward against their interest rate differential price trend and the EUR-pegged pairs bullish to upward against their interest rate differential price trend. However, JPY-pegged pairs are still underway to upward as per their interest rate differential price trend.

This current market environment may put the USD-pegged pairs, excluding EURUSD , USDJPY and USDCHF , to go no where or flat interior their current monthly bands/ceilings with sudden drop by CHF and EUR and sudden bullish by JPY. This is good for Trump's trade policy by the way. This is also good for ECB.

This market environment pressure the needs for adjusting trading position for long on JPY-pegged pairs, short for CHF-pegged pairs and long for EUR-pegged pairs. This type of market environment requires deep analysis on "relative prices" or "weighted rates" for entry and exit as well as stop loss management.

My current trading operation now managed for:

Long JPY-pegged pairs
Long EUR-pegged pairs with overnight rollover charges.
Short CHF-pegged pairs not traded by too high margin maintenance requirement.

Whereever you go, the time series currency band and the time series interest rate differential based currency band provide the directional price trends.
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