'The only way that BoJ can make me trade this event is if it goes lower first. I see the high risk in a disappointing BoJ because the market is very biased.'
I also mentioned that the structure for USDJPY and EURJPY wasn't impulsive so therefore I didn't favor a continuation.
Nevertheless I also tell you to keep an open mind, although our analysis turned out to be correct. There is a possibility of another set-up not based on an impulse.
Let's focus on the 1 hour time frame first:
We see 7 waves lower (extension of 3). I counted this in my previous post as 1-2 (1-2-3-4-5=3).
However IF we see green wave 5 projection break above the high of green wave 3 we might see a wave.
So what will be the plan?
We can sell the break once we see a reversal pattern on lower time frames, because after a we most often see a sharp retrace. The other scenario is that this won't turn into a and the sell will give us a new low.
Medium term; If the will be confirmed we can focus on a retrace/consolidation down and look for buys once that settles.
Focusing at the 4 hour time frame we see that a reversal out of the current zone might turn into an even bigger by means of a 3-3-3-3-3 structure.
This will explain why I stated two weeks ago 'the first move doesn't look impulsive'. It still doesn't but this is only a valid reversal by means of a wave.
I hope this doesn't confuse you too much. However keep following me if you are interested in structure and context on how it works. Soon I'll be able to explain this by means of webinars on the website. For now just see what happens if you don't fully understand it. You will see that the scenario's that I write are either correct or will keep you out of a bad trade 90% of the time. That's trading for me and how I manage my fund, get 90% success and trade nothing less than perfect set-ups.
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We can sell the bearish break once we see a bearish reversal pattern on lower time frames, because after a leading diagonal we most often see a sharp retrace. The other scenario is that this won't turn into a leading diagonal and the sell will give us a new low.'
This happened faster than expected. Unfortunately I was busy analyzing and missed it myself. For those who shorted from the 15 min tf; well done and enjoy your profits! I call it a day and wish you all a very nice weekend!
For the bears;-). Impulse-consolidation-impulse (have a look at my previous USDJPY post for additional context) This is why we write scenario's, so we can trade a move and once we are in profit can determine whether it is trend continuation of only a retrace (in case as we have two valid possibilities). But those who shorted the call you might want to consider to keep something on the table but that's up to your trade plan and trading style.