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During the first FOMC regular meeting of the year, the Federal Reserve signaled the possibility of an early rate cut in March alongside maintaining the current interest rates. Furthermore, the U.S. labor market has shown stronger performance than anticipated, and other economic indicators also presented positive signs, diminishing the likelihood of a rate cut in May. However, market attention is focused on potential reversals that could occur with the inflation index data to be released next week.
- In an interview with CBS the previous day, Chairman Powell mentioned that the rate cut expected by the market would likely be smaller than anticipated and the pace slower.
- The U.S. Consumer Price Index will be announced on February 13th.
- On February 15th, Japan's 4th-quarter GDP and U.S. retail sales figures will be released.
- CME Fedwatch reflects a 61.6% probability of a rate cut in May.
The USD/JPY price chart is showing an upward trend. The dollar's strength continues, and recent pressures have confirmed support for the uptrend, bringing back upward momentum. It is expected to be pushed strongly along the trend, and movement will vary depending on when it breaks the previous high.
The anticipated movements can be seen in two scenarios:
First, continuation of the medium-term uptrend after smoothly surpassing the previous high resistance while maintaining support from the trend.
Second, resistance at the previous high leads to downward pressure, followed by confirmation of support from the lower trend before a medium to long-term upward movement.
These two movements seem most likely at the moment. Adjustments to the strategy will be made if there are any variables.
Please share your personal opinions in the comments. We kindly ask for your support through likes and subscriptions.
During the first FOMC regular meeting of the year, the Federal Reserve signaled the possibility of an early rate cut in March alongside maintaining the current interest rates. Furthermore, the U.S. labor market has shown stronger performance than anticipated, and other economic indicators also presented positive signs, diminishing the likelihood of a rate cut in May. However, market attention is focused on potential reversals that could occur with the inflation index data to be released next week.
- In an interview with CBS the previous day, Chairman Powell mentioned that the rate cut expected by the market would likely be smaller than anticipated and the pace slower.
- The U.S. Consumer Price Index will be announced on February 13th.
- On February 15th, Japan's 4th-quarter GDP and U.S. retail sales figures will be released.
- CME Fedwatch reflects a 61.6% probability of a rate cut in May.
The USD/JPY price chart is showing an upward trend. The dollar's strength continues, and recent pressures have confirmed support for the uptrend, bringing back upward momentum. It is expected to be pushed strongly along the trend, and movement will vary depending on when it breaks the previous high.
The anticipated movements can be seen in two scenarios:
First, continuation of the medium-term uptrend after smoothly surpassing the previous high resistance while maintaining support from the trend.
Second, resistance at the previous high leads to downward pressure, followed by confirmation of support from the lower trend before a medium to long-term upward movement.
These two movements seem most likely at the moment. Adjustments to the strategy will be made if there are any variables.