MacChangYi
Long

Setup for USD/JPY

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
Dollar-Yen had a double penetration breakout last week, breakout of horizontal resistance as well as the significant trendline which was established since early Jan 2017.

What this means is that the upside potential are greater. I am seeing slight consolidation for USDJPY now and it seems healthy and well setup for further bull run.

Risk to reward with setup looks promising, multiple Fibo are fitting in perfectly as well.

Current USD/JPY move is driven by strong Dollar rather than weakening of Yen.

This week's data release as well as Tuesday's Fed Powell's speech will be significant to drive this pair.
Comment: USDJPY climbed after Powell's consistent positive outlook on Dollar. That being said this pair will trade higher towards 113.374
Trade active: Trades triggered last night, as Trump's comment spark questions on market confidence
Trade closed: stop reached: Stop triggered after Trump took market by surprise commenting on his twitter again. The impact draw much concerns on the real meaning behind his tweets.

Will watch for possible re-entry around 111.152 level
Comment: Price fail to support by the trend line as established earlier. Couple of concern over USDJPY that keep me by the bench instead.

Monday we have BOJ announcement and clarification if last weekend's speculation on fine-tuning stimulus program is true (if so = Yen to strengthen).

On the other hand, as I am expecting a healthy retracement on DXY and it has not reach the level which I am looking for. USDJPY is unlikely to hold for now, as downside is on the upper hand.

Fed hike effect is wearing off, as established over diminishing effect on Dollar.

Treasury yield is inching towards 3% as well which points towards stronger Dollar but it does not reflect so on DXY. The jump is largely due to easing trade concerns rather than favoring the dollar. This is something that I am focusing on (the norm is higher yield = stronger ccy) which in this case is not yet reflecting exactly.

Nonetheless, I am looking for possible reentry if reversal signal is strong around 110.57 but not neglecting the possibility of potential USDJPY turning bear.
Trade active: Manual trigger entry.

Comments

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