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Last week, the U.S. April CPI met expectations, increasing optimism about the slowdown in inflation. Additionally, it is projected that the Fed will cut rates twice this year, with the first rate cut likely to occur in September. However, it is still uncertain how the Fed's rate policy will change, so it will be necessary to closely monitor the price index indicators and FOMC meetings in June and July.
- The minutes of the FOMC meeting will be released on May 23.
- Japan's April consumer price index will be announced on May 24.
- The U.S. April personal consumption expenditures price index will be announced on May 31.
USD/JPY has resumed its upward trend after encountering resistance at the 152 line and dropping. It is expected to challenge the high resistance again, and if it breaks through this area, it could rise to at least the 164 line. However, given the projections that the Fed will start cutting rates in the third or fourth quarter of this year, it seems unlikely that the dollar will strengthen sharply, making it difficult to break through the 160 high. Therefore, I will maintain a view of short-term upward movement followed by a medium- to long-term decline.
In summary, a short-term rise to the 160 line is expected, followed by a medium- to long-term decline to the 148-150 range.
I will adjust the strategy if the movement deviates from the expectations.
Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Don't forget to like and subscribe.
Last week, the U.S. April CPI met expectations, increasing optimism about the slowdown in inflation. Additionally, it is projected that the Fed will cut rates twice this year, with the first rate cut likely to occur in September. However, it is still uncertain how the Fed's rate policy will change, so it will be necessary to closely monitor the price index indicators and FOMC meetings in June and July.
- The minutes of the FOMC meeting will be released on May 23.
- Japan's April consumer price index will be announced on May 24.
- The U.S. April personal consumption expenditures price index will be announced on May 31.
USD/JPY has resumed its upward trend after encountering resistance at the 152 line and dropping. It is expected to challenge the high resistance again, and if it breaks through this area, it could rise to at least the 164 line. However, given the projections that the Fed will start cutting rates in the third or fourth quarter of this year, it seems unlikely that the dollar will strengthen sharply, making it difficult to break through the 160 high. Therefore, I will maintain a view of short-term upward movement followed by a medium- to long-term decline.
In summary, a short-term rise to the 160 line is expected, followed by a medium- to long-term decline to the 148-150 range.
I will adjust the strategy if the movement deviates from the expectations.