Friends,
As the $USD tends to his gored wounds, expect a probable rangebound action in the days ahead.
PROBABLE QUANTITATIVE/GEOMETRIC INTERPLAY:
A nascent geometry is taking the shape of a Wolfe Wave , but given the structural bounds and Predictive Model data, I would expect this geometry to evolve into a possible Geo , in which case, its rules would differ.
For instance, Predictive Model is suggesting a probable floor in the 120.474/120.265 range, which would define a possible 5prime position, and thus limit subsequent upward moves to the price level corresponding to Point4 (range defined as 124.210 to 124.431).
This combined Predictive/Geometric analysis is very speculative, but remains within the boundaries of high probabilities in terms of how the Predictive/Forecasting Model and the Wolfe Wave/Geo have behaved individually.
WOLFE WAVE VS. GEO:
The Geo is simply an elaboration of the Wolve Wave pattern, taking into account internal geometric requirements, such as a reciprocal symmetry of the 12 Leg, a double or triple zigzag of the 23 Leg in terms of Elliott Wave internal construction, as well as price compensations in terms of reversal whenever price would reverse from an ectopic Point5 position, defined as a Point5prime (5'), whereby the geometric compensation would expect a lowered probability of price returning to the 14 Line (as if the rule in Wolfe Wave ), but instead offer a highprobability of price reversing to the level corresponding to Point4 (in the case of a point5second reversal, then the compensation would lower the 14 Line as the least probable target, compared to attainment of level of Point4 as a moderate probability target, and the level corresponding to point3 as the highest probability target  This is in essence the definition of the "OffSet Rule of Probability Target", or simply the "Offset Rule".
OVERALL:
In this 4hour chart, a channel can be drawn given the (pink) ranges illustrated in the chart, using known, reliable technical elements, such as geometry, Fibonacci (lower range happens to fall at 1.618 extension of points 2 and 3) and structural analyses  All this remains purely speculative, but the tools are individually consistent and probable in forecasting power.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado  USA

Twitter:
@4xForecaster
LinkedIn:
David Alcindor

.
As the $USD tends to his gored wounds, expect a probable rangebound action in the days ahead.
PROBABLE QUANTITATIVE/GEOMETRIC INTERPLAY:
A nascent geometry is taking the shape of a Wolfe Wave , but given the structural bounds and Predictive Model data, I would expect this geometry to evolve into a possible Geo , in which case, its rules would differ.
For instance, Predictive Model is suggesting a probable floor in the 120.474/120.265 range, which would define a possible 5prime position, and thus limit subsequent upward moves to the price level corresponding to Point4 (range defined as 124.210 to 124.431).
This combined Predictive/Geometric analysis is very speculative, but remains within the boundaries of high probabilities in terms of how the Predictive/Forecasting Model and the Wolfe Wave/Geo have behaved individually.
WOLFE WAVE VS. GEO:
The Geo is simply an elaboration of the Wolve Wave pattern, taking into account internal geometric requirements, such as a reciprocal symmetry of the 12 Leg, a double or triple zigzag of the 23 Leg in terms of Elliott Wave internal construction, as well as price compensations in terms of reversal whenever price would reverse from an ectopic Point5 position, defined as a Point5prime (5'), whereby the geometric compensation would expect a lowered probability of price returning to the 14 Line (as if the rule in Wolfe Wave ), but instead offer a highprobability of price reversing to the level corresponding to Point4 (in the case of a point5second reversal, then the compensation would lower the 14 Line as the least probable target, compared to attainment of level of Point4 as a moderate probability target, and the level corresponding to point3 as the highest probability target  This is in essence the definition of the "OffSet Rule of Probability Target", or simply the "Offset Rule".
OVERALL:
In this 4hour chart, a channel can be drawn given the (pink) ranges illustrated in the chart, using known, reliable technical elements, such as geometry, Fibonacci (lower range happens to fall at 1.618 extension of points 2 and 3) and structural analyses  All this remains purely speculative, but the tools are individually consistent and probable in forecasting power.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado  USA

Twitter:
@4xForecaster
LinkedIn:
David Alcindor

.
From Twitter/LinkedIn:

$USDJPY reached upper limit; Repulse and rangebound as forecast; Bears dominate field:
$USD $JPY #BOJ Forex #yen

David Alcindor
Morphology of the developing geometry requires that Point4 be shifted as illustrated below:
David Alcindor
So, for the time being, I am following this closely, but it definitely remains a developing project.
David
TechNote:
Here is the completion of that parabolic move that we anticipated last week:
Expect further validation of the 14 Line for the time being, as the "Tunneling" is getting further validation.
Break above prior high would undermine the present bearish outlook.
David
Have a great weekend.
Have a great weekend.
From twitter/LinkedIn:

$USDJPY swooped to 14 Line then fell to complete Geo as forecast; Limited reactive rally pending:
$USD $JPY #BOJ

David Alcindor
TechNote:
Looking at the Predictive/Forecasting Model, there is lesser probability that price would rise from what was assumed to be Point5. Also, the 203 Lef is typically more complex than this initial morphology  I have changed Point5 into Point3, looked for a better "Tunneling" and expect Point5 to be significantly lower than initially define by the geometry. The resulting geometry is as follows:
OVERALL, the Predictive/Forecasting Model remains bearish and offers a lesser probability of an significant rally. Although is expected to rally to the 24 Line, I would not expect it to attain any loftier level. This also means that Point4 remains speculative at this point, and is approximated to reside along or near the current 24 Line and the approximate intersection of the 14 line (defined using the "tunneling" method without applying any strict GeoAnchoring).
David Alcindor
From Twitter/LinkedIn:

$USDJPY expected to submit to geometry's overhead resistance along 14 Line; Still bearish:
$USD $JPY #BOJ #forex

David Alcindor
From Twitter/LinkedIn:

$USDJPY validated, reversed right off of geometry's 14 Line; Now eyes Pt5 validation:
$USD $JPY #BOJ #forex

David Alcindor
TechNote:
Now that the geometry is taking a firmer shape with its 4th plot completed at Point4, the following should be a more accurate rendition of its form (having adjusted its 14 Line accordingly):
David Alcindor
From Twitter/LinkedIn:

$USDJPY rolled from point4 as forecast; Completes geometry along 13 Line; Expecting 5prime, lower:
$USD $JPY

David Alcindor
From Twitter/LinkedIn:

$USDJPY hit 120.474 target; Expect revisit to 123.586 per Geo's OffSet Rule:
$USD $JPY #BOJ #forex $nikkei $SPY

David Alcindor
In essence, the Predictive/Forecasting Model can define future pivot levels if price carves new highs or new lows, or simply anticipate what prior pivots are relevant using numerical targets, such as TG1, TG2, ... etc. It also has the ability to define top or bottom reversals, which it does using qualitative targets (i.e.: TGHi, TGLo, TGHix, TGHix and Warning Lines)  This is a probabilitybased proprietary model that cannot be shared.
However, this "Model" tends to maintain a reliable correlation with the Wolfe Wave, and more precisely with the Geo. Hence, you will see my targets defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model, but it will not offer a likely path.
In contrast, the WW and more precisely the Geo will offer a probable path towards the Model's target.
There is no book, video or material written on the discoveries I have made. However, if you Google "David Alcindor 4xForecaster Geo", you should be able to come across multiple (lots) of charts where I touch on the defining characteristics of the Geo.
Most recently, I wrote and posted a lesson that specifically highlighted the differences between Wolfe Wave vs. the Geo vs. the Model.
Here is the link to it:

David Alcindor
From Twitter/LinkedIn:

$USDJPY continues to carve higherhighs as forecast; Resistance stiffest at 123.586:
$USD $JPY #BOJ $nikkei #forex

David Alcindor
From Twitter/LinkedIn:

$USDJPY hit target as forecast; Now recedes from 123.586; Bears remain in charge:
$USD $JPY #BOJ #forex $nikkei

David Alcindor
The 14 Line was of lesser probability when compared against the price level at Point4. This is based on the Geo's OffSet Rule I have established, which is simply a probabilitybased analysis, whereby in the case of a 5prime (5') reversal, price is more likely to attain the price level of Point4 (Rule #2 of the Geo's OffSet Rule), whereas attainment of the 14 Line (Rule #1 of the Geo's OffSet Rule, which is really the Wolfe Wave's rule  http://www.WolfeWave.com  is of a lesser probability.
In the analysis I share, I attempt to offer only the highest probability setups.
If price can reach a next, lesser probability level, as it did in this case, since I released the analysis/forecast, then I suggest that the trader considers a 80/20 situation, in which 80% of the initial position is offloaded in profit, and 20% residual position seeks out the lesser probability, using proper StopLoss disciplines.
I sometimes use that 80/20 trade, but more often than not, the 100% inandout is all that I care for. There are enough fish in the etream to keep a beast's belly Buddhafull.
David
From Twitter/LinkedIn:

$USDJPY becomes susceptible to decline as WW completes all plots; Bears gaining strength:
$USD $JPY #nikkei #BOJ

David Alcindor
From Twitter/LinkedIn:

$USDJPY eyes 125.225 as geometric confluence of 0.886 #fibonacci, WW's 13 Line validation of Pt5:
$JPY #nikkei

David Alcindor
From Twitter/LinkedIn:

$USDJPY rolls on cue at geometric convergence of 0.886 #fibonacci and Point5:
$USD $JPY #BOJ #yen #nikkei #forex

David Alcindor
How were you able to determine that there was a high probability of range bound price action likely to take place in this pair? Just curious what you are looking at? Thank you as always. Iefan
From Twitter/LinkedIn:

$USDJPY rolls from 24 Line validation as forecast; Remains intent on 120.474:
$USD $JPY #yen #BOJ #forex

David Alcindor
From Twitter/LinkedIn:

Following perfect forecast adherence from 125.225, $USDJPY rallied, stomped at prior target:
$JPY #yen #BOJ #forex

David Alcindor
It was a very nice trade. I'm sad I wasn't in.
Best Regards,
Julien
D.
Continuing to closely follow this pair, here is a potential Elliott Wave development:
David Alcindor
Watch for this possible alternate count:
David Alcindor
The point of contention here is whether the wave that defines PointA is a true abc internal structure in either of the scenarios. It appears to be quite apparent in the latter chart, and less so in the former  Letting price unfold is also another viable strategy here, using a structurebased approach to this dilemma as defined above.
David
As price continues to move within the geometry, an internal reciprocal ab = cd symmetry might possibly offer this anticipated support  See pink arrow in H4 chart below:
David Alcindor
David Alcindor
I have to assume that as price moves drastically contrary to the Elliott Wave form projection, I was likely neglecting to consider the origin of PointA as a potential zizzag, which is one of the requisite for the initiation of this pattern. I will post an alternate Elliott Wave pattern that is likely offering the correct count, not simply because it makes more sense relative to the first ZZ correction that gives it a rational point of origination, but also because the larger timeframe is likely developing into a bearish impulse  For now, I will keep the two possibilities open to either possibilities  I will look at it from the point of view of the Model and see what higher probability direction we should consider  From a fundamental standpoint, markets are down, emerging markets are hemorrhaging capital that is leaving for only two known safeheavens: USD and Gold. As these two historically walk in inverse pace to one another, it will be interesting over the months to appreciate which of the two might benefit the most from this global depreciation and race to the bottom: The larger countries, flush with foreign currencies are likely to keep selling their sovereign currencies in order to devalue against other devaluing players.
Thing is, to devalue any currency requires buying a foreign counterpart that is liquid, not likely to depreciate any faster than any other currency, and might retain value as a recognizable diplomatic tool. So, what do you think might occur to the US Dollar when EMs seek to gain exporting power wherever their currency is mainly exchangeable against the USD. It is this fundamental issue that I would keep in mind whenever looking at the possibility of the USDJPY going in either direction.
Following is a $DXY chart I posted 16 months ago ... It appears that the US Dollar index has reached a level where a correction  not a reversal  is due:
David Alcindor
Price continues to follow the geometric outline as shown  It remains to be proven that this is the controlling geometry that would bring $USDJPY to lower lows. Market expectation remains supportive of $USD Index, whereas USDollar wave analysis remains bullish, both acting as contrarian expectation to this geometry.
David Alcindor