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# \$USD vs. \$JPY - Probable Range-Bound Action Ahead | #BOJ #forex

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
1825 46
Friends,

As the \$USD tends to his gored wounds, expect a probable range-bound action in the days ahead.

PROBABLE QUANTITATIVE/GEOMETRIC INTERPLAY:

A nascent geometry is taking the shape of a Wolfe Wave , but given the structural bounds and Predictive Model data, I would expect this geometry to evolve into a possible Geo             , in which case, its rules would differ.

For instance, Predictive Model is suggesting a probable floor in the 120.474/120.265 range, which would define a possible 5-prime position, and thus limit subsequent upward moves to the price level corresponding to Point-4 (range defined as 124.210 to 124.431).

This combined Predictive/Geometric analysis is very speculative, but remains within the boundaries of high probabilities in terms of how the Predictive/Forecasting Model and the Wolfe Wave/Geo have behaved individually.

WOLFE WAVE VS. GEO:

The Geo             is simply an elaboration of the Wolve Wave pattern, taking into account internal geometric             requirements, such as a reciprocal symmetry of the 1-2 Leg, a double or triple zig-zag of the 2-3 Leg in terms of Elliott Wave internal construction, as well as price compensations in terms of reversal whenever price would reverse from an ectopic Point-5 position, defined as a Point-5-prime (5'), whereby the geometric             compensation would expect a lowered probability of price returning to the 1-4 Line (as if the rule in Wolfe Wave ), but instead offer a high-probability of price reversing to the level corresponding to Point-4 (in the case of a point-5-second reversal, then the compensation would lower the 1-4 Line as the least probable target, compared to attainment of level of Point-4 as a moderate probability target, and the level corresponding to point-3 as the highest probability target - This is in essence the definition of the "Off-Set Rule of Probability Target", or simply the "Offset Rule".

OVERALL:

In this 4-hour chart, a channel can be drawn given the (pink) ranges illustrated in the chart, using known, reliable technical elements, such as geometry, Fibonacci (lower range happens to fall at 1.618 extension of points 2 and 3) and structural analyses - All this remains purely speculative, but the tools are individually consistent and probable in forecasting power.

Best,

David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting

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@4xForecaster

David Alcindor
-----

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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: MarketPredictiveAnalysis@gmail.com
23 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

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\$USDJPY reached upper limit; Repulse and range-bound as forecast; Bears dominate field:

\$USD \$JPY #BOJ Forex #yen
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David Alcindor
4xForecaster

Morphology of the developing geometry requires that Point-4 be shifted as illustrated below:

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
Hi David. Doesn't the new point 4 gives a less clear tunnel?
HamedAghajani
Hello @HamedAghajani - Yes, for the moment, we can only follow the lower-highs and shift Point-4 to where it prints. Speculating ahead, there are some points within the geometry that lend themselves to a more complex (i.e.: greater number of validation points) tunneling, such as in the following example:

So, for the time being, I am following this closely, but it definitely remains a developing project.

David
26 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

Tech-Note:

Here is the completion of that parabolic move that we anticipated last week:

Expect further validation of the 1-4 Line for the time being, as the "Tunneling" is getting further validation.

Break above prior high would undermine the present bearish outlook.

David
4xForecaster
Have a great weekend.
4xForecaster
Have a great weekend.
28 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

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\$USDJPY swooped to 1-4 Line then fell to complete Geo as forecast; Limited reactive rally pending:

\$USD \$JPY #BOJ
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David Alcindor
30 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

Tech-Note:

Looking at the Predictive/Forecasting Model, there is lesser probability that price would rise from what was assumed to be Point-5. Also, the 203 Lef is typically more complex than this initial morphology - I have changed Point-5 into Point-3, looked for a better "Tunneling" and expect Point-5 to be significantly lower than initially define by the geometry. The resulting geometry is as follows:

OVERALL, the Predictive/Forecasting Model remains bearish and offers a lesser probability of an significant rally. Although is expected to rally to the 2-4 Line, I would not expect it to attain any loftier level. This also means that Point-4 remains speculative at this point, and is approximated to reside along or near the current 2-4 Line and the approximate intersection of the 1-4 line (defined using the "tunneling" method without applying any strict Geo-Anchoring).

David Alcindor
01 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

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\$USDJPY expected to submit to geometry's overhead resistance along 1-4 Line; Still bearish:

\$USD \$JPY #BOJ #forex
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David Alcindor
4xForecaster
02 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

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\$USDJPY validated, reversed right off of geometry's 1-4 Line; Now eyes Pt-5 validation:

\$USD \$JPY #BOJ #forex
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David Alcindor
4xForecaster

Tech-Note:

Now that the geometry is taking a firmer shape with its 4th plot completed at Point-4, the following should be a more accurate rendition of its form (having adjusted its 1-4 Line accordingly):

David Alcindor
08 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

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\$USDJPY rolled from point-4 as forecast; Completes geometry along 1-3 Line; Expecting 5-prime, lower:

\$USD \$JPY
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David Alcindor
09 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

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\$USDJPY hit 120.474 target; Expect revisit to 123.586 per Geo's Off-Set Rule:

\$USD \$JPY #BOJ #forex \$nikkei \$SPY
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David Alcindor
Hello, David, is there any book you could prescribe for me for an indepth understanding of wolfe wave/ geomentry trading. You seems to be the only on 'net with an accurate geometry forecast,especially your wolfe wave counts they are point.Thanks
raydistryfx
Hello @raydistryfx - I gleaned over Mr. Bill Wolfe's http://www.WolfeWave.com site, where he seems to explain the core principles of his geometry. What I have done was to "dissect" his geometry using a Predictive/Forecasting Model for comparison, as well as apply other discoveries I made over the years (been doing occult market geometry research since 1997), and came up with the "Geo", which impart more accurate forecast when compared to the Wolfe Wave.

In essence, the Predictive/Forecasting Model can define future pivot levels if price carves new highs or new lows, or simply anticipate what prior pivots are relevant using numerical targets, such as TG-1, TG-2, ... etc. It also has the ability to define top or bottom reversals, which it does using qualitative targets (i.e.: TG-Hi, TG-Lo, TG-Hix, TG-Hix and Warning Lines) - This is a probability-based proprietary model that cannot be shared.

However, this "Model" tends to maintain a reliable correlation with the Wolfe Wave, and more precisely with the Geo. Hence, you will see my targets defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model, but it will not offer a likely path.

In contrast, the WW and more precisely the Geo will offer a probable path towards the Model's target.

There is no book, video or material written on the discoveries I have made. However, if you Google "David Alcindor 4xForecaster Geo", you should be able to come across multiple (lots) of charts where I touch on the defining characteristics of the Geo.

Most recently, I wrote and posted a lesson that specifically highlighted the differences between Wolfe Wave vs. the Geo vs. the Model.

Here is the link to it:
-

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
Thank you sir, really appreciate it.Am a big fans of you, Keep the good work up.
4xForecaster
Thank you sir, really appreciate it.Am a big fans of you, Keep the good work up.
10 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

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\$USDJPY continues to carve higher-highs as forecast; Resistance stiffest at 123.586:

\$USD \$JPY #BOJ \$nikkei #forex
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David Alcindor
13 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

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\$USDJPY hit target as forecast; Now recedes from 123.586; Bears remain in charge:

\$USD \$JPY #BOJ #forex \$nikkei
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David Alcindor
4xForecaster
but it as not validated 1-4 line so why you are expecting bears in charge before hitting 1-4 line
kmk.msp

The 1-4 Line was of lesser probability when compared against the price level at Point-4. This is based on the Geo's Off-Set Rule I have established, which is simply a probability-based analysis, whereby in the case of a 5-prime (5') reversal, price is more likely to attain the price level of Point-4 (Rule #2 of the Geo's Off-Set Rule), whereas attainment of the 1-4 Line (Rule #1 of the Geo's Off-Set Rule, which is really the Wolfe Wave's rule - http://www.WolfeWave.com - is of a lesser probability.

In the analysis I share, I attempt to offer only the highest probability set-ups.

If price can reach a next, lesser probability level, as it did in this case, since I released the analysis/forecast, then I suggest that the trader considers a 80/20 situation, in which 80% of the initial position is off-loaded in profit, and 20% residual position seeks out the lesser probability, using proper Stop-Loss disciplines.

I sometimes use that 80/20 trade, but more often than not, the 100% in-and-out is all that I care for. There are enough fish in the etream to keep a beast's belly Buddha-full.

David
4xForecaster
thanks David
awesome analysis man , im targeting the 121-222 level as well .we have about 2-3 days left of this bull short term trend ,then its down from there
03 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

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\$USDJPY becomes susceptible to decline as WW completes all plots; Bears gaining strength:

\$USD \$JPY #nikkei #BOJ
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David Alcindor
11 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

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\$USDJPY eyes 125.225 as geometric confluence of 0.886 #fibonacci, WW's 1-3 Line validation of Pt-5:

\$JPY #nikkei
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David Alcindor
12 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

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\$USDJPY rolls on cue at geometric convergence of 0.886 #fibonacci and Point-5:

\$USD \$JPY #BOJ #yen #nikkei #forex
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David Alcindor
Hi David,

How were you able to determine that there was a high probability of range bound price action likely to take place in this pair? Just curious what you are looking at? Thank you as always. Iefan
iefan
@iefan - It's that secret ingredient in the soup my grand-ma told me not to share with anyone - David
4xForecaster
4xForecaster
21 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

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\$USDJPY rolls from 2-4 Line validation as forecast; Remains intent on 120.474:

\$USD \$JPY #yen #BOJ #forex
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David Alcindor
25 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

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Following perfect forecast adherence from 125.225, \$USDJPY rallied, stomped at prior target:

\$JPY #yen #BOJ #forex
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David Alcindor
4xForecaster
Well done David !

Best Regards,
Julien
Mirandole
Il y a toujours beaucoup plus de poissons dans cette petite riviere.

D.
4xForecaster
On dirait que la pêche a été bonne ! Sourire.
12 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Continuing to closely follow this pair, here is a potential Elliott Wave development:

David Alcindor
12 OCT 2015 - Tech-Note:

Watch for this possible alternate count:

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
The BC leg represents a simple ZZ with C = 1.272 x A. This extension could be played out reciprocally in the CD Leg as well. Hence, a break above the recent high would support this possibility, whereas a break below the prior low would have us consider the most-immediate bearish option posted earlier this evening.

The point of contention here is whether the wave that defines Point-A is a true a-b-c internal structure in either of the scenarios. It appears to be quite apparent in the latter chart, and less so in the former - Letting price unfold is also another viable strategy here, using a structure-based approach to this dilemma as defined above.

David
14 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As price continues to move within the geometry, an internal reciprocal ab = cd symmetry might possibly offer this anticipated support - See pink arrow in H4 chart below:

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
... Perhaps not the cleanest support level, but one that carries a relative antecedant:
4xForecaster

David Alcindor
4xForecaster
Hi David. Thank you for the update. Do you possible have a weekly, monthly chart for this pair?
15 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

I have to assume that as price moves drastically contrary to the Elliott Wave form projection, I was likely neglecting to consider the origin of Point-A as a potential ziz-zag, which is one of the requisite for the initiation of this pattern. I will post an alternate Elliott Wave pattern that is likely offering the correct count, not simply because it makes more sense relative to the first ZZ correction that gives it a rational point of origination, but also because the larger timeframe is likely developing into a bearish impulse - For now, I will keep the two possibilities open to either possibilities - I will look at it from the point of view of the Model and see what higher probability direction we should consider - From a fundamental standpoint, markets are down, emerging markets are hemorrhaging capital that is leaving for only two known safe-heavens: USD and Gold. As these two historically walk in inverse pace to one another, it will be interesting over the months to appreciate which of the two might benefit the most from this global depreciation and race to the bottom: The larger countries, flush with foreign currencies are likely to keep selling their sovereign currencies in order to devalue against other devaluing players.

Thing is, to devalue any currency requires buying a foreign counter-part that is liquid, not likely to depreciate any faster than any other currency, and might retain value as a recognizable diplomatic tool. So, what do you think might occur to the US Dollar when EMs seek to gain exporting power wherever their currency is mainly exchangeable against the USD. It is this fundamental issue that I would keep in mind whenever looking at the possibility of the USDJPY going in either direction.

Following is a \$DXY chart I posted 16 months ago ... It appears that the US Dollar index has reached a level where a correction - not a reversal - is due:

David Alcindor
20 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price continues to follow the geometric outline as shown - It remains to be proven that this is the controlling geometry that would bring \$USDJPY to lower lows. Market expectation remains supportive of \$USD Index, whereas USDollar wave analysis remains bullish, both acting as contrarian expectation to this geometry.

David Alcindor
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