Watch for the USDMXN breakout

FX:USDMXN   U.S. Dollar / Mexican Peso
The next days will be decisive for FX_IDC:USDMXN now that NAFTA talks have officially begun. In the chart there are 4 relevant price levels (shown in bold green). And 2 short-term price levels (in thin red).

  • If the price breaks the short-term resistance at 18.04 then we would likely see the price reaching 18. 40 or even 19.28 if NAFTA negotiations don't favor Mexico.
  • If the price breaks the short-term support at 17.48 then we may expect the price to reach the Pre-Trump support level at at 17.16.

Events that would favor the first scenario would be:
  • A full withdrawal from the NAFTA deal.

While the second scenario would be more likely in the event of:
  • A soft NAFTA "tweak".
  • An increased feeling of a "Trump's failed agenda".
  • An armed conflict between the US and North Korea.

"In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield. " - Warren Buffett


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