USD/NOK: Potential for Rally to 9.25-26 or Higher
Considering my immediately bearish outlook on oil, I am analysing some petrol currencies to see if I could find justification in terms of Elliott Wave structure for corresponding declines in those vs. the currency in which oil is priced. I do find it with the NOK:
Background: USD/NOK is rallying in a C wave of an upward ABC correction which began in 2008. The C wave would generally be expected to reach a length of 1.618 of A, which at 9.25-9.26 would happen to bring it near to the downward sloping trend line projected through the high peaks of 1985 and 2000.
Wave B was also a bullish triangle which, as I have figured it, yielded a thrust measurement to 7.84211. A post-triangle thrust measurement typically represents .618 to .786 of the total thrust distance, and that is usually to the level of the end of the 3rd wave of a 5-wave thrust impulse. In this impulse, I feel the count is very clear through March 2015, reflecting an extended 3rd wave ending there. Those .618 and .786 marks are hit quite closely by the 3rd and 3rd of 3rd waves when the 1.00 mark is set at that 1.618 level mentioned above. I interpret all of these factors as mutually confirming.
After that, a 4th wave decline down to just under the usual .382 retracement of the 3rd wave occurred. However, where one would then expect a characteristic impulsive 5th wave rise, although it does rally significantly higher, the wave action is peculiarly choppy and looks like a corrective structure in my view. I believe the entire rally since May 2015 is actually a B wave of the 4th wave. The B wave has employed a complex WXY sequence to gain altitude tantamount to where a 5th wave would reach, and it appears to be now descending just enough to make a valid 4th wave terminal only slightly below the peak of the 3rd wave. This will allow for the 5th wave to begin rallying from a much higher than normal starting level. I anticipate the 5th wave rally to begin very soon, if not already. It should be concurrent with the decline in the oil price.
Background: USD/NOK is rallying in a C wave of an upward ABC correction which began in 2008. The C wave would generally be expected to reach a length of 1.618 of A, which at 9.25-9.26 would happen to bring it near to the downward sloping trend line projected through the high peaks of 1985 and 2000.
Wave B was also a bullish triangle which, as I have figured it, yielded a thrust measurement to 7.84211. A post-triangle thrust measurement typically represents .618 to .786 of the total thrust distance, and that is usually to the level of the end of the 3rd wave of a 5-wave thrust impulse. In this impulse, I feel the count is very clear through March 2015, reflecting an extended 3rd wave ending there. Those .618 and .786 marks are hit quite closely by the 3rd and 3rd of 3rd waves when the 1.00 mark is set at that 1.618 level mentioned above. I interpret all of these factors as mutually confirming.
After that, a 4th wave decline down to just under the usual .382 retracement of the 3rd wave occurred. However, where one would then expect a characteristic impulsive 5th wave rise, although it does rally significantly higher, the wave action is peculiarly choppy and looks like a corrective structure in my view. I believe the entire rally since May 2015 is actually a B wave of the 4th wave. The B wave has employed a complex WXY sequence to gain altitude tantamount to where a 5th wave would reach, and it appears to be now descending just enough to make a valid 4th wave terminal only slightly below the peak of the 3rd wave. This will allow for the 5th wave to begin rallying from a much higher than normal starting level. I anticipate the 5th wave rally to begin very soon, if not already. It should be concurrent with the decline in the oil price.
