It seems like a year since I last posted anything on oil . That was under my other account name AynCzubas. At the time I was forecasting a decline to below $30.
Right now I see something quite remarkable, which is that WTI appears ready for another leg down, possibly to $12-13 per barrel.
Triangles are the most amazing chart pattern phenomena, in my opinion. The accuracy with which they foretell the distance of an impending move is almost hard to believe, especially considering that very few market participants are even aware of what triangles are or how they "work".
In the U.S. oil , a triangle thrust distance measured in mid 2015 back at a point in 2009 predicted the drop from the $100s into the $40s in 2015. Also from June to August 2015, the fall from $61 to $37 was very exactly matched by the triangle thrust measurement of the angles leading up to it.
Now, another triangle that has been developing for a month appears to be completing. This is a 4th wave of a 3rd wave of the extended 5th wave down of wave C. It's measurements as of right now (assuming they do not change) imply a decline to the $12-13 level to complete the 3rd wave. What is interesting is that the decline of wave (3) to this level would make it exactly 1.618 of the length of wave (1), which is just what one would expect the ratio to be.
That will not be all, though. Theoretically, that drop will be followed by a 4th wave rally (of one larger degree) which might seek its way back up as high as the $37 level but would not exceed the low of wave 1 at $38.04. Then, there will be the final wave 5 down that should complete this decline in oil before the next bull market can begin.
As to how far down the 5th wave of wave C will go: theory suggests that this bear market will ideally reach back down to the bottom of the 4th wave of one lesser degree (of the preceding bull market wave). That was $10.35 in 1998 according to one popularly accepted long term wave count.
The thrust from the triangle at the present parameters should put Wave (3)'s low around #12-13 where it will, coincidentally, be 1.618 the length of Wave (1):
Close-up of Wave 'e', which I think may hit maximum height at about $30 before the decline begins. In any case, it should not rise above wave 'c''s peak: