Lanmar
Short

Highest probability FX trade right now

As of October 1st 2016, the Norwegian Krona against the Swiss Frank is unquestionably one of the highest probability trades I currently see in the FX market, if not the highest probability trade on a weekly closing basis. TradingView is not giving me permission to set-up a NOK/CHF cross, so instead I set-up the USDNOK/USDCHF, which neutralizes the US dollar             in the equation.

Attached below is the chart of CADCHF             , which likely signals some form of a bottom. I analyze the Canadian dollar             because of its correlation with crude oil             , since the correlation with oil             and Norway is high as well. Looking at the NOKCAD, I see a potential breakdown in the Cad against the Nok             , but far too much pressure in the $6 level to be really interested in the trade. Now let's look at the Russian Ruble             - also highly correlated with oil             . For now, Rubles are presenting a stronger outlook than Cad dollars - see third chart below. So let's look at NOK/RUB - the cross between these two will likely be in a long term consolidation. Lastly, let's look at Norway's currency against gold             . The Norwegian Krona just broke a major weekly pennant.

CADCHF            
snapshot


Norway against Canada
snapshot


Russia against Canada
snapshot


Norway against Russia
snapshot


Norway against Gold            
snapshot
I am bullish on CADCHF
+1 Reply
Lanmar PRO ShauntheSheep
2 months ago
Same here bud. The question is which provides more return, CADCHF or NOKCHF? For reasons shown above I prefer NOKCHF.
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