Hi all.
I keep looking for signs about what is happening on the market.
After consulting with @dieseldub I found it interesting to add up
4 stablecoins, and then plotted them by dividing their capitalization
by TOTAL crypto market capitalization.
Displaying chart logarithmically, I did three things:
1. Build two channels, an inner channel and an outer channel.
2. Measured percentage drop from peak to bottom in the three cases.
3. Included 9 seasons rainbow.
1. So, for most of its history, this chart has been at least in the big channel, and mostly traded in the inner channel, entering the outer channel only on peaks or declines. On June 20, the candle broke through support and trading went into uncharted territory.
2. Ok, let's see, what was the rate of decline in the past times? October 2020 - February 2021 ~ 57.3%. July 2021 - November 2021 53% June 2022 - July 2023 ~51.6% What is the commonality here? The correction is at least 50% and there is a correlation in the decline at each successive one.
3. 9 seasons. "Support / Oversold (Blue): a support area, may become a Bottom, or be broken through". Let's pay attention to the blue marker and the price behavior in the first 4 cases. However, starting from the end of April 2023 we have a large area formed on several frames of the indicator, which consists of several blue bars. It would seem that this is already quite serious oversold on the one hand, and the bottom of a large channel on the other. And around June 20, a small white cluster "Neutral (White): a wandering season without direction, evolves into Bull or Bear" appears on the 4th bar. In my opinion, the most unlikely thing happens, the price breaks the channel. What happened? Nothing in the chart itself. But it was affected by the magnetic field of a larger celestial body... What is this celestial body? SP500. Which for a month has been forming a reversal pattern with three gaps, completely unseen before. Therefore, the wandering season (white) has turned bearish after the SP500 broke 4400 level.
So, conclusions.
If the market just wants to rise because it doesn't care about the rate hike announcement and slowdown in China, no arguments and calculations can work, as they didn't work for me a month ago.
In case the SP500 started a correction and they announce a rate hike on the 27th, we can also expect this chart you are looking at now to rise.
The only thing that remains unclear is which channel bottom the candle will test? Is it the outer or the inner channel?
We already have a fresh blue indicator.
This chart is inversely related to bitcoin.
If it goes up, bitcoin goes down.
Good luck.
I keep looking for signs about what is happening on the market.
After consulting with @dieseldub I found it interesting to add up
4 stablecoins, and then plotted them by dividing their capitalization
by TOTAL crypto market capitalization.
Displaying chart logarithmically, I did three things:
1. Build two channels, an inner channel and an outer channel.
2. Measured percentage drop from peak to bottom in the three cases.
3. Included 9 seasons rainbow.
1. So, for most of its history, this chart has been at least in the big channel, and mostly traded in the inner channel, entering the outer channel only on peaks or declines. On June 20, the candle broke through support and trading went into uncharted territory.
2. Ok, let's see, what was the rate of decline in the past times? October 2020 - February 2021 ~ 57.3%. July 2021 - November 2021 53% June 2022 - July 2023 ~51.6% What is the commonality here? The correction is at least 50% and there is a correlation in the decline at each successive one.
3. 9 seasons. "Support / Oversold (Blue): a support area, may become a Bottom, or be broken through". Let's pay attention to the blue marker and the price behavior in the first 4 cases. However, starting from the end of April 2023 we have a large area formed on several frames of the indicator, which consists of several blue bars. It would seem that this is already quite serious oversold on the one hand, and the bottom of a large channel on the other. And around June 20, a small white cluster "Neutral (White): a wandering season without direction, evolves into Bull or Bear" appears on the 4th bar. In my opinion, the most unlikely thing happens, the price breaks the channel. What happened? Nothing in the chart itself. But it was affected by the magnetic field of a larger celestial body... What is this celestial body? SP500. Which for a month has been forming a reversal pattern with three gaps, completely unseen before. Therefore, the wandering season (white) has turned bearish after the SP500 broke 4400 level.
So, conclusions.
If the market just wants to rise because it doesn't care about the rate hike announcement and slowdown in China, no arguments and calculations can work, as they didn't work for me a month ago.
In case the SP500 started a correction and they announce a rate hike on the 27th, we can also expect this chart you are looking at now to rise.
The only thing that remains unclear is which channel bottom the candle will test? Is it the outer or the inner channel?
We already have a fresh blue indicator.
This chart is inversely related to bitcoin.
If it goes up, bitcoin goes down.
Good luck.
Comment:
There is already a green bar on the 18 hour chart.
That's great!
That's great!
Comment:
About China.