ahmedse
Long

Short term range and Long Term Moves of TRY, Lira to hit 9.7?

FX:USDTRY   U.S. Dollar / Turkish Lira
Just thinking that the price is to emerge within the upward consolidation range, as drawn.

Recommended entry at this point (with some risk) and less risky ones at 5.85 and 5.75 (it is possible that the price will not drop there).
Movements drawn within the range for the next 2-3 months, are only here to highlight key areas, and the consolidation range tested three times before.
and there is a very low probability that the 4 of them will be correct (if it happens to be true, never enter in shorting direction, a breakout is possible anytime)

but what is really recommended is to go long USDTRY for the long term and target the fibonacci expansion around 8.3 initially and 9.7 as a last TP.
(9.7 may coincide with a trend line on the logarithmic scale linking Aug 13 top to the ascending line from Feb-Sep 2015)

Fundamentally:
- The country is entering a recession, negative GDP growth, and rising unemployment.
- Turkey is geopolitically entangled, preparing an operation against kurds to the south, which was promised for long time and did not happen. And very disturbed in shifting its alliances away from the west towards Russia and Iran.
- As highlighted on the chart, a controversial deal for russian S-400 missiles may imply some sanctions too.

And also, watch out for Trump's twitter , if he makes any tweet on turkey :)




Finally these trades are recommended for the long term, assess your losses and overnight funding rates separately.
Comment: Daily candlestick closed above the trendline and psychological / round 6.0

I think next resistance is in the area of 6.18-6.2.

If it gets there we ll see if the disastrous move will happen soon, or if one of the last retracements will happen (to 5.75-5.85?? And with a dim chance to occur)
Comment: Resistance area reached,
Now will see if a break to occur now or later
Comment: ahmedse
just now
Turkey suspended the 1 week repo
https://www.reuters.com/article/turkey-c...

This may cause the price to correct a bit as it did on March 22nd,
Comment: good correction to 5.85 as awaited,
will keep watching for next: 5.7-5.75 region, best entry to buy USDTRY
Comment: Really good spot to enter at 5.68
Comment: Rumours Trump is about to release three packages of sanctions
TRY catastrophy is around the corner
Price will shoot quickly to 8.3 area if this comes on trump's tweet
Comment: after the g20 meeting, leaving the trade, and will revisit later when tensions escalate
Comment: Reentering the trade at 5.707, lots of support is below (100,200 ma)
Comment: disaster for the turkish lira is just around the corner:
1- delivery of S400 missiles, and a risk of kicking off with promised american sanctions
2- turkey challenging eu, by drilling in cyprus, and eu threatening appropriate sanctions
3- erdogan's appointment to the central bank, and him stating an action will come closely to reduce interest rate as he initally wanted back in 2018 (which kicked off last criris), this may be reduced on next TCMB meeting by the end of July

Initial target at 8.25
I will close there, and look for a second entry towards, 9.7!!
Comment: Believe price is heading to 5.88
Comment: target reached another time!
Price t retrace back to 5.58-5.6 region
Comment: update target down to 5.51

Related Ideas

Comments

Turkey suspended the 1 week repo
https://www.reuters.com/article/turkey-currency/update-2-turkey-suspends-one-week-repo-after-lira-hits-eight-month-low-idUSL5N22L3H5

This may cause the price to correct a bit as it did on March 22nd,
Reply
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